Watch or Warning?

One who walks in another's
tracks leaves no footprints. - Proverb

When looking at a satellite map I'm frequently awed by just how large a hurricane can be. It's impossible to miss in a photo. However while it's obvious where a hurricane is now, the ability of the weather service to predict where a hurricane is going is not 100%.


The image to right shows the predicted path of hurricane Fay on Aug 17. You can see that the cone of uncertainty grows each day. By three days out, Wednesday, the path is nearly 400 miles across putting many Florida counties on stand-by waiting to learn if they will be hit or not.

[Update: Aug 28 - Fay turned out to be very unpredictable. As a tropical storm it made landfall four times in Florida with much flooding]

Because of this uncertainty it is important to know the difference between a Hurricane Watch and a Warning.

• WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible in the specified area of the WATCH, usually within 36 hours. [The white region of the map above]
  
• WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area of the WARNING, usually within 24 hours. [Regions very close to the predicted track]

The difference is two key words - Watch=possible and Warning=expected. The difference is more obvious when applied to tornadoes. A Tornado Watch says conditions are ripe for a tornado to occur (stay on your toes). A Tornado Warning says a tornado was spotted (go to shelter immediately).

Bottom Line
Pay serious attention to both Watches and Warnings. With a Watch - check/prepare your supplies, listen to radio/TV to see if conditions worsen, and be ready to act. With a Warning, it's time to implement your emergency plans.