Possible Wheat Shortage?

“Newspaper editors are men who separate the wheat from the chaff, and then print the chaff.” - Adlai E. Stevenson, US Ambassador to the United Nations (1961-65)

According to an LA Times science story, there is a new wheat stem rust called the Ug99 fungus that is highly contagious and very deadly to wheat. “Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of worldwide wheat crops as it spreads from eastern Africa.” [LAT] The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico is less pesimistic and estimates that “only” 19% of the world's wheat is in “imminent danger.”

"It moves in the air, it can move in clothing on an airplane. We know it's going to be here. It's a matter of how long it's going to take." - Jim Peterson, professor of wheat breeding at Oregon State University [LAT]

Fungus fear has caused price spikes on world wheat markets.

"A significant humanitarian crisis is inevitable" - Rick Ward, coordinator of the Durable Rust Resistance in Wheat project at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y. [LAT]

After years of research, scientists have found a “cure”, a half-dozen genes that will protect wheat from Ug99. Now they have two options, genetically alter wheat to add the “good genes” or try to breed the new genes into the plant “naturally.” Many countries and people are opposed to genetically modified grains but the natural method will required 9-12 years for each species of wheat around the globe.

Bottom Line

Historically wheat rust is a plague of blibical proportion (recall the seven lean-years in Egypt). But modern scientists thought they had it under control. “Stem rust destroyed more than 20% of U.S. wheat crops several times between 1917 and 1935, and losses reached nearly 9% twice in the 1950s. The last major outbreak, in 1962, destroyed 5.2% of the U.S. crop.” [LAT] In fact scientists thought they had defeated wheat rust and moved their research to other crop diseases. Ug99 popped up in Uganda in 1999 and was not taken seriously until crops in Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan and Yemen were devastated.

If you store wheat in your food storage or are thinking about storing wheat, consider stocking up now before prices spike higher during a wheat shortage. Prices have mostly recovered from the global price rise in 2008 but appear to be moving upwards again.