Thursday, August 5, 2010

Long Term Unemployment

Of all the aspects of social misery nothing is so heartbreaking as unemployment.
~Jane Addams, 1910

A new graph shows the severity of the present recession/depression.

The average unemployed person has now been unemployed for 25 weeks, just over 6 months. This is twice a high as anytime in the past 50 years.

When the results are this extreme it's hard to argue that it would have been worse without the stimulus. Instead some claim that unemployment was made worse by the actions taken by Obama and the Democrats in the past two years. Unemployment only ends when people are hired. Now the government has been hiring but private business has not. Private business is scared. The law has changed on health care and the rules for insuring employees. The law has changed on banking and loans. There may be climate change laws coming. And so on.

A friend had a sign on her desk at work, "Change is good, you go first." While some entrepreneurs can use a time of change for profit, for most companies change means uncertainty - what's the new law going to cost us in paperwork, regulation, and fees? Do we have to change how we do business or how we document our business? Few are willing to risk expansion or growth in a time of high uncertainty. So companies are sitting pat until the regulatory climate settles down and they have a chance to figure out what's what.

Bottom Line

America is better served when the Congress and President are in different parties. Law then require compromise and negotiation. At present any crazy idea can be passed into law if just three people support it - Pelosi, Reid and Obama.

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