The Return of Bird Flu

“I am no bird; and no net ensnares me; I am a free human being with an independent will . . .” - Charlotte Bronte

The Los Angeles Times recently published a story, New bird flu cases revive fears of human pandemic.

"Hong Kong, believed to have been free of H5N1 [for six years], is forced to cull [80,000] poultry after an outbreak. Two [human] avian flu deaths are reported in Egypt and Indonesia. ... India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and mainland China also experienced new outbreaks in December."

Frequent bird slaughtering and constant monitoring have kept the flu in check so far. Yet it continues to smolder with occasional flare ups. Fortunately the risk to humans is still low,

To fuel a pandemic, a virus must be able to both infect humans and spread readily from person to person. The currently circulating H5N1 strain does neither well.

But low risk does not mean no risk. Mutations are random and could occur at any time.

"What alarms me is that we have developed a sense of pandemic-preparedness
fatigue," [commented one scientist]. ...

Bottom Line

It is unlikely that Bird Flu will be 100% eliminated anytime soon. "The virus appears to be entrenched in Indonesia, parts of China, Vietnam, Egypt and other countries where backyard flocks are more difficult to regulate than commercial chicken farms, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization."

Scientists have little experience with which to gauge how H5N1 will evolve. "We still have to treat this as a potentially very, very dangerous virus."