Swine Flu

How quickly can Swine Flu make you sick? About 90 minutes of CNN should do it. -American Digest

There is nothing better for a news company than FEAR. When they can sell the idea of "Watch our news or you might die", ratings improve and they make money. Too bad if the alarm was false or too extreme and you ended up wasting your time and your money.

Last night I was watching some conference talks from TED.com online. (Highly recommended!) One speaker from Africa described how his team put together a text messaging emergency alert system to cover riots, government-police actions, etc. It worked very well. In fact too well. The amount of public created "emergency" traffic from tweet and texting far exceeded the ability of responders to read it. In version 2 of the system they had to install ratings to judge the accuracy and reliability of senders to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Now Swine Flu is real and it is back. It is not yet a pandemic but people are acting as if it were. AmericanDigest.org shows how The Virus Does Not Travel at the Speed of Tweet, But the Tweet of the Virus Does. Panicked Tweeters were publishing "breaking news" from the CDC (Center of Disease Control) claiming that the virus was spreading and "could not be contained." USA Today reports Swine flu spreads panic in Mexico City. With 81 possible deaths in all of Mexico since April 13, health officials ordered some 500 cultural and sporting events cancelled. According to Bloomberg.com, the Mexican President declared an emergency April 25 and canceled school at all levels in Mexico City and the state of Mexico until further notice.

Precaution and preparation is important - for example Mexicans are urged to wear face masks in public. But keep a sense of perspective. In the US (2001 data) 2525 people died every day from heart attacks and 120 died every day from auto accidents. Why don't we see panics and government emergencies over butter and cars as agents of death? Every year the CDC estimates that 36,000 people in America die of "normal" flu but people still refuse to get "normal" flu shots. Blogger Ryan Sager writes

Our brains are pretty bad at assessing risk — we worry about flying (which is safe), while we love driving (which kills far more people); we worry about terrorism (which kills virtually no one), while we die of heart disease (No. 1 killer in the United States) — and so we vastly overestimate the chances that we, personally, might get swine flu.

In the article, Risk Communication Before and During Epidemics the author notes that there is a very low correlation between risk/harm and outrage/perceived risk.

Whatever your measure of harm, across a wide range of risks, the correlation between how much harm [a risk is] going to do and how upset people are going to get is this absurdly low 0.2 correlation.

Swine flu may get worse but right now driving your car is 40 to 100 times more deadly.

Bottom Line
Swine flu is serious but the 20 known cases in the US appear to be a mild strain. Watch the blogs and Internet for news but filter it for truth vs bias and rumors. Prepare but don't panic. If you have flu symptoms see a doctor and get tested for Swine flu, don't go to work or school and share the virus with others. Avoid people who are coughing or sneezing and wash your hand frequently. If you are very concerned: avoid crowds or wear a face mask (very common on Japan!)

Don't rely totally on the US government for information (and never rely on evening news casts). Governments will under AND over react. The Washington Post reports that U.S. public health officials did not know about a growing outbreak of swine flu in Mexico until nearly a week after that country started invoking protective measures, and didn't learn that the deaths were caused by a rare strain of the influenza until after Canadian officials did. (This despite our huge Department of Homeland Security!) Now with 20 mild cases of Swine flu in NY and CA and TX the US Department of Health declared "a public health emergency" on April 26. According to Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napilotano, the emergency declaration is standard operating procedure and enables 12 million doses of the drug Tamiflu to be distributed from Federal stockpiles to states that need to deal with a flu outbreak. The terminology here is terrible! An "emergency declaration" is standard operating procedure? What will the goverment call a real pandemic and crisis?

Update

US government claims it is prepared to handle Swine Flu despite the fact that after Obama's first 100 days we have no Surgeon General, no Secretary of Health and Human Services, and no appointees in any of the department’s 19 key posts.

NYT Story - To quarantine or not? Lesson from the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic

Resources
The CDC Swine Flu website is www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm
CDC Health Advisory, April 25, http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/pdf/HAN_042509.pdf
CDC Travel Advisories: http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/notices.aspx
World Health Organization (WHO) Epidemic News: http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/
Health Map: http://healthmap.org/en
Swine Flu News: http://health.einnews.com/news/swine-flu

Google Alerts: create an email alert of "Swine Flu" news as soon as it hits the internet.
Amazon has a site for a Bird Flu survival kit www.amazon.com/Bird-Flu-Survival-Kit-Basic/lm/RWDK3B57W2U2Q/