Panic At the Gas Pumps

There are many things we take for granted like fuel at gasoline stations. Last month in England, fuel tanker drivers voted for "industrial action" which could have resulted in a strike of delivering fuel to 90% of the stations. Two ministers in the government offered helpful advice:

1. "a bit of extra fuel in a jerry can in the garage is a sensible precaution to take"

2. "If there is an opportunity to top up your tank if a strike is potentially on the way, then it is a sensible thing if you are able to do that"

These two comments caused a panic as motorists raced to stations to fill cans and top off tanks before the possible strike. Fuel sales climbed 50% and stations ran dry. In Christchurch, Dorset, police closed filling stations after the town became gridlocked with motorists trying to fill up.

Bottom Line

As with many other "just in time" supply chains, it takes very little increase in demand to wipe out supply.

Flash Crowds

"Four short words sum up what has lifted most successful individuals above the crowd: a little bit more. They did all that was expected of them and a little bit more."- A. Lou Vickery (American business author)

Have you ever been stuck in traffic only to learn that it was caused by rubber-neckers slowing to observe an accident in traffic going the other way? People love to gawk.

In 1973, Larry Niven wrote a novella called "Flash Crowd" that describes the impact of having free and instantaneous teleport machines. When something novel occurs, say a skyscraper building fire, tens of thousands of gawkers would appear from around the world to watch. Criminal pickpockets, taking advantage of a crowd, would join them. Naturally authorities were not amused as the instant crowd hampers rescue efforts and causes additional problems.

In the real world we may lack star-trek transporters but we do have the Internet. If you are a small blog (like mine) and get linked to by one of the “big guys”, the effects of an instant crowd can be overwhelming. Being Slashdotted may cause an Instalanche on your Web server or put you into higher fees with your service provider for exceeding a volume limit.

Interestingly the effects of Flash Crowds are no longer limited to imaginary worlds and virtual worlds. With the Social Networking of Facebook, Twitter, and Blackberries, instant events can be announced and hordes appear at the designated site. This idea was used on TV to conceal a murder in CSI: Miami "Murder in a Flash".

The Flash Crowd effect was also observed recently in Big Bear Valley of Highland, California. Roads to this ski resort area were closed for days by a big snowfall. No deliveries were possible and residents & guests got by with stocks on hand. When the roads reopened, supply trucks were hampered by thousands of skiers and snowboarders clogging the roads, hoping to be first on the virgin snow. When resorts ran dangerously low on fuel and food, officials took the unusual step of closing the roads to tourists, allowing only delivery trucks and emergency vehicles until the resorts were restocked.

Bottom Line

Crowds can be exhilarating but they can also be dangerous. I recommend keeping a safe distance away. When driving for example, my wife & I try to avoid driving within a cluster of cars. We’ll pull ahead or drop behind to avoid the pack.

On the other hand, a crowd may be responding to something you’re not aware of. Find out the reason for the crowd. Cartoonist/author James Thurber wrote a story called “The Day the Dam Broke”. A man is running and muttering, “damn, damn.” Someone overhears and begins running also. When asked why, this second person responds, “I’m running for my life. The dam has broke.” So others start running, spreading the rumor and soon the whole town is running in panic from a non-existent tidal wave.

On a more serious note, on 9/11 in New York City, my workplace at Rockefeller Center was evacuated as a possible target site and everyone was told to go home. On my way to Grand Central train station, I’m the only person walking south. Hundreds of people are walking north. Despite feeling like a salmon going upstream, I never stopped to ask why so many people were headed north. Later I learned that the Mayor declared a mandatory evacuation of lower Manhattan. Some 300,000-500,000 people moved themselves to safer locations.

New Rice Price Spike

“Without rice, even the cleverest housewife cannot cook” - Chinese Proverb

In March to May 2008, there was a “super-spike” in the global price of rice. Droughts in major producing countries like Australia created a shortfall of rice that resulted in panic buying and stockpiling. The price of rice returned to normal once everyone realized that there was still enough rice to meet global demand, i.e. no storage.

Fast forward to this year and the return of the spike. The weather this year was terrible for rice. India had its driest monsoon season in four decades and has halted all rice exports except for high quality basmati. India will eat all the rice it produces. A series of typhoons destroyed crops in the Philippines so that country is going on a buying spree. Other rice countries experienced droughts because of El Niño. Global rice stockpiles are at their lowest since 1976. “It feels a little like early 2008,” said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. “Prices can quickly escalate if jittery consumers and public officials see supply risks looming, even if these are more perceived than real.”

Rice traders are divided on what to do. The world’s largest rice buyer, the Philippines, is buying now for 2010 but others are waiting for the spike of 2009 to fall like it did last year. However 2009-2010 might be worse than last year. According to the US Department of Agriculture, global rice output will fall to 432 metric tons in 2009-10 while demand is estimated at 437 metric tons. A small gap but a true shortage.

Bottom Line

If you can buy rice cheaply for food storage, do so. Otherwise wait until 2010-2011 for this new “spike” to hopefully fall.

When Asteroids Attack

“Noise proves nothing. Often a hen who has merely laid an egg cackles as if she laid an asteroid.” - Mark Twain

An article at NewScientist.com, Asteroid attack: Putting Earth's defences to the test, describes a day-long test by the US Air Force in December of last year to test its readiness in the case of an asteroid impact. The US Air Force brought together scientists, military officers and emergency-response officials for the first time to assess the nation's ability to cope with an asteroid striking the Earth in just three days. The exercise was a wake-up call for the Air Force: there is no plan for what to do, the early-warning systems are woefully inadequate, and was no formal coordination between major parties like the Air Force, Homeland Security and NASA.

So it is not unreasonable to ask, should we panic? The answer is no. The best known impact in modern times was a comet 30 to 50 meters across that exploded over Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908, flattening trees for dozens of kilometres all around. The chance of a similar impact is about 1 in 500 each year, or a 10% chance of an impact in the next 50 years. The odds of a dinosaur killing, giant asteroid are much, much lower. But let’s assume you beat the odds and the next small comet or asteroid hits in your lifetime. Well the earth is a very big place with 70% of it covered in water. NASA used to fear that an ocean impact would create giant city-swamping tidal waves but recent research shows that the waves will lose energy before hitting land. (Unless the comet hits close to shore.)

What would an asteroid impact look like? A lot like an atom bomb. The heat of entry will cause the rock or comet to explode in a bright flash of light with a huge pressure and heat wave 30 seconds after. The only difference will be a lack of radiation. Since an asteroid and nuclear bomb are so similar, NASA warned the world when it calculated that a car sized asteroid would hit somewhere in the Middle East last year. They did not want a World War started because an Arab nation thought it had been nuked. Fortunately 2008 TC3 exploded over an unpopulated desert area of northern Sudan and never reached the ground.

Bottom Line

To its credit NASA was able to predict where and to the minute when the 2008 TC3 asteroid hit. To our shame, we had just 20 hours warning of this particular asteroid. And we were lucky to have spotted it at all. Our telescopes are blind to objects moving at us from the direction of the sun or even the moon. Two of the world's three leading asteroid detecting telescopes are based in Arizona, a region that clouds over between July and September.

Get Out Of Dodge

“The evacuation of major cities - we have a problem with that. We've never done that before.” ~ Henry Renteria, Director of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services

About a year ago I wrote about the acronym TEOTWAWKI. Just this morning I came across another acronym G.O.O.D. that ties nicely into an article at NewScientist.com, Asteroid attack: Putting Earth's defences to the test. GOOD stands for “Get Out Of Dodge” and refers to emergency evacuation planning. When a hurricane is bearing down or an asteroid is about to strike your town, you won’t be the only one trying to escape. I recommend the movie, Deep Impact, which has a scene near the end of a crowded highway, no one’s moving, the asteroid is coming, so naturally people start panicking and driving on the grass, getting into accidents and getting into fights. Every man for himself!

The best solution to GOOD is getting out quickly, before the rest of the public jams the roads. If your go-kits are packed and ready you can get a head start on the crowd. Do not delay. Do not think you can escape “last minute”. You might also want to fill a gas can immediately because stations along the escape routes will quickly sell out.

When evacuating millions of people, I suspect every option is a lose-lose scenario. The highways will jam. Secondary roads can become closed with a single accident. If you have an AWD vehicle you could try off-road driving but have to cope with fences, ditches, streams, etc. In all cases a GPS unit can help provide alternative routes if you get stuck.

Bottom Line

Because of the hazards of evacuation, sheltering at home is often a better choice if you’re well stocked and prepared. But sometimes (killer hurricane or asteroid) you must get out of town, no choice. What will you do?

Four Stories of Survival

“One of the true tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency.” Arnold H. Glasgow

Over the past year Popular Mechanics has been a great source for disaster preparedness stories. For example, 4 People Who Faced Disaster—And How They Made it Out Alive. The article is worth reading in depth – I’ll summerize it here.

Prepare for the Worst:

a former Hewlett-Packard engineer saves his house from a California fire. “The last thing I want from my story is for people to risk their lives,” Vaplon says. “But I’d thought about protecting my home, and I felt comfortable with my decision to stay.” He was well prepared.

Keep Cool in a Crisis:

In a disaster, 10% of the people panic and 80% do nothing. But when a tornado in Iowa hit a shelter with 65 Boy Scouts, the Scout Leader went into autopilot rescue mode. “I don’t know how to describe it,” he says. “It was like my brain went away, and I went to a very businesslike place.” Though injured himself, he directed the able-bodied Scouts to take care of the injured, applying pressure to wounds, turning T-shirts into bandages and elevating the legs of those who were in shock. His leadership saved many lives.

Hang in There:

An overnight sky-watching trip in Washington state, becomes a nightmare when an unexpected autumn snowstorm leaves Daryl Jané stuck for 14 days until he was found by a local snowmobile club. John Leach, a survival psychologist says, “people in his situation die all the time, but they don’t have to ... He didn’t have food, but that’s not a problem for two weeks—you can live without it. (Jané lost 10 pounds.) Fluid is the issue, but he found water.” Don’t give up.

Outlast the Aftermath:

When Hurricane Ike hit Texas last year, 48 people died. But, according to the National Hurricane Center, as many as 64 post-storm deaths occurred in Texas because of factors like carbon monoxide poisoning and electrocution. The first weekend after Ike, some 37,000 Texans were holed up in shelters that ran short of food and water within 24 hours. The next few weeks brought countless scores of injuries from clearing debris. Lesson learned? Work with your neighbors and know how to safely live in a disaster area.

Bottom Line

Popular Mechanics correctly identifies four key principals to survival:

1. Be prepared in advance with supplies, equipment and skills
2. Keep calm. This comes from practice and a knowledge that you are prepared.
3. Make a plan to survive and don’t give up.
4. Be prepared for a long haul. The aftermath can be worse than the disaster event.

Triage

“Getting out of the hospital is a lot like resigning from a book club. You're not out of it until the computer says you're out of it.”
- Erma Bombeck

Since hospitals are private companies in the business of making money, it makes little sense for them to have empty beds or unused capacity. That’s just wasteful and unprofitable as a business. And yet that “efficiency” means hospitals can quickly become overwhelmed with the smallest of disasters.

Normally, one should not consider a rock concert a “disaster scene”. (Unless you really, really hate rock music :-) But last year, in Kansas City, Rockfest2008, exceeded the capacity of St. Luke’s Hospital, a major institution and winner of frequent quality awards. A concert of 50,000 fans created 22 ambulance calls over a couple of hours with cases ranging from heat exhaustion to a broken spine. This is an incident rate of just 0.044% but “The surge was so great the hospital had to place some patients on mattresses on the floor and tell ambulances that it had reached its limit for all but trauma patients.” Just imagine what would happen if the incident rate were higher like a biological agent or dirty bomb exploded in a sport stadium or other crowded event.

With mass care events, triage is activated (with a twist). Normally, with hospital emergency room triage, the most serious cases go first. Mr. Gunshot wound goes to the head of the line; Little Runny Nose Kid gets to wait (and wait). But with mass care, with overwhelming number of patients, the most serious patients are allowed to die. The goal is to save the highest total number of lives. A first responder or medical practitioner could spend 30 minutes trying to revive one person with CPR or save 6 seriously wounded from bleeding to death in the same time period. When forced to choose, would you save the one or the six?

When I was a “victim” in a Sarin gas attack drill, it took hours for medical rescuers to arrive. The fireman who arrived first became victims. Then guys in “space suits” showed up to take air samples. Then a bio-unit set up decontamination tents and finally bio-suited teams brought in stretchers or escorted the wounded to the tents for processing. All “victims” had a card stating the severity of our “wounds”. We noticed the rescuers were NOT saving those with “black” tags, the most seriously wounded. When we asked, they explained, these people were already dead after so long a wait or soon would be. They had to remain focused on the lives that could still be saved.

Bottom Line

Most of the time the American health system is a marvel with speedy service. But come flu season, a rock concert or a real disaster, there will be too few doctors and too few beds. This is one of the real fears behind a viral pandemic – hospitals will not be able to cope with the patient load. For this reason it is vital to know First Aid and be able to care for the health of yourself and your family as much as you can.

P.S. New Scientist magazine notes that Health workers may flee in pandemic panic. A survey in the UK revealed that only 15% of hospital workers would go to work during a pandemic. Even the Nurses and Doctors would stay home.

Approaching Danger

Curiosity killed the cat - proverb

As described in the story Citizen journalism: 1, evolutionary instincts for survival: 0,

There was a massive gas explosion in Moscow that led to an inferno that injured
five people, raising questions about Russia’s ageing energy infrastructure and
the sanity of Russian civilians. … [In the embedded YouTube] notice how people
are not all running from the explosion; many are walking towards it, recording
the scene on their mobile phones

Humans are funny animals. They will panic over a disease that killed people in another country yet walk straight towards a local disaster. And I’m no different. I’ve always wanted to see a tornado so my inclination in college during a tornado alert was to go outside and look instead of sheltering instead and missing it. I still have not seen one.

When my wife and I visited Yellowstone National Park and the Canadian Rockies, we were warned about wildlife and “Bear Jams”. A bear jam occurs when someone sites a bear and everyone parks their car on the road shoulder and gets out to look. Now-a-days the bear is typically far away so in one case we watched as some foolhardy young visitors decided to hike closer to the bears. When a Park Ranger arrived, she was furious. She yelled at the hikers, chased after them and we could see her asking for their driver licenses (giving them a park ticket I suppose).

People appear to think of Yellowstone as a giant petting zoo. We watched photographers approach a mother moose and her child. Other tourists must have thought that the boarded walkways were a safe zone and would walk within feet of a wild bison while staying on the path.
Most animals in real zoos are not tame either. One extreme danger program on TV showed video of a woman who climbed two walls to get a better picture of a polar bear. The bear grabbed her leg through the cage bars with his teeth and wouldn’t let go. The zookeepers were pulling on the woman and trying to distract the bear. Fortunately her shoe came off and the bear let go to check it out. She was lucky to keep her leg.

Bottom Line

An important survival skill is to show proper respect for danger. We forget about risk when trying to get a better photograph or when rushing in to save a person. In a Red Cross First Aid/CPR class I just attended, the first step was always to evaluate the scene to determine if it was safe for you to approach an injured person. No point in you also being electrified, bitten by a rattlesnake, poisoned by gas or burned by a chemical and becoming another victim. The second step was to put on rubber gloves (to protect yourself) before touching the victim. You may save life but acquire HIV or Hepatitis.

Think before you leap towards danger.

WHO can you trust?

Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
- lyrics by The Who

The flurry of stories over Swine Flu has certainly been educational; almost like a global safety drill with a chance to evaluate the key players. There has been a wide range of public and official reactions from “head to the hills” to “nothing to worry about”. So whom can you trust?

Many studies have shown that people are a poor judge at putting risks into proper perspective. My current commuting book on CD, “Predictably Irrational”, details the many ways people are wired to act in ways that defy “rational” behavior. For example, use the word “free” and people will mob and sometimes riot to get something they don’t really need. When it comes to diseases, the word “death” triggers similar irrational behavior.

Yesterday it was announced that the first person (an infant) had died of Swine Flu in the US. Panic!!!! Well, no. Since the majority of US cases are in New York City (Queens), mayor Bloomberg held a press conference and told the public that 2000 New Yorkers die every year from flu. Death from flu is normal and part of everyday life that no one usually thinks twice about.

So why the hyper-reaction over Swine Flu?

• We are past the normal flu season so deaths from this strain stand out as unusual.
• The media has given it a name and made it their top story for ratings.
• This flu (Mexico only so far) has killed healthy adults. This is serious news and makes this strain different than “normal flu”.

Once reliable source for judging the danger of influenza is the World Health Organization (WHO). They publish a global risk level for a pandemic (from all known flues) on a scale of 1 to 6.
Phases 1-3 represent flu in animals (like Bird Flu) that spread poorly to people.
Phase 4 means there is verified human-to-human transmission of an influenza virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” There is a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries. Declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent.
Phase 6 means the disease is a pandemic affecting many countries.

Bottom Line
On April 28 WHO raised the pandemic risk level from 3 to 4. On April 29 the threat level was raised to 5. WHO advises preparing for a pandemic but oddly does not yet recommend closing boarders or canceling travel plans. Personally I think that is under-responding and favoring the interests of business over people. So far most US cases have been traced back to someone visiting Mexico so it seems prudent to stay away until the flu is under control. Why visit a country that has declared itself a National Health Emergency?

Prepare, take precautions, and odds are you'll be OK. During the Spanish Flu of 1918 40 million people died which sounds like a lot. But 73% of Canadians and Americans NEVER contracted the Spanish flu. 97.5% of those who were infected, managed to survive and recover. With modern medicine the rate of surviving is higher today. WHO estimates that a modern pandemic would kill 5 million globally instead of 40-50 million.

Proper Ways to Handle Swine Flu

“Panic is quite rare. What's quite common is denial; denial is why panic is rare. We are organized such that, when we're about to panic, we trip a circuit breaker instead and go into denial.” - Peter Sandman, Risk Communication Specialist

My column yesterday could be viewed as a form of denial. I suggested ignoring the media-hype and twitter panic on swine flu and calming preparing for a possible pandemic that was unlikely to happen. Since then I’ve done more reading from the opposing view point of “don’t risk your life, respond now.”

The NYT Health section this week includes a well-written article on Assessing the Danger of New Flu. It discusses the complications in judging how dangerous flu might be and then looks at Hong Kong as a model for proper government response.

Contagion and virulence
Two measurements describe flu or any disease. Contagion = how easily does the disease spread from person to person? Virulence = how deadly is it? (i.e. what percentage of people die from catching the disease?)
- The Spanish influenza of 1918 had a mortality rate of ONLY 2.5% but was very contagious and killed tens of millions.
- Bird Flu (global/current) kills 61% of those afflicted but so far infects mostly birds, rarely people. The total number of fatalities is 257.
- SARS (Hong Kong 2003) was virulent (17%) and spreadable. But it killed only 299.
It is not easy to figure out which flu bugs will be pandemics and which ones won’t before it is too late.

Lessons Learned
Hong Kong (HK) learned much from SARS about how to respond to an epidemic:
- By weeks end, HK will have six laboratories studying the genetic markers for Swine Flu to allow for rapid detection and diagnosis of new cases
- HK has tens of thousands of doctors and nurses, including retirees, on standby and ready to be mobilized. (The US has a similar program called the Medical Reserve Corps created under President Bush.)
- HK has contingency plans to keep public transport, electricity, food supplies, telecommunications and other vital services running if large numbers of people fall ill.
- Since SARS Hong Kong has added 1,400 respiratory isolation unit beds to hospitals.
- HK with a population of seven million people has stockpiled 20 million treatment courses of Tamiflu. The US with 300 million people has 50 million courses of Tamiflu.
- HK is quickly passing a law to require all health professionals to notify authorities of any suspected cases of Swine Flu. This allows the disease to be accurately tracked.
- HK has broad and detailed legal powers to quarantine possible cases. The US (after six years) is still debating how to handle legal issues during a possible pandemic.

Bottom Line
Several articles today have suggested that a little panic is good for public health. As discussed above it is very hard to know which flu bugs will fade quickly and which ones will be deadly killers. By the time authorities do know, the bug may have already spread widely making quarantines useless. The safest course for individuals and the public is to follow the example set in Mexico at the first hint of a new flu virus. Order the public to stay home and close the schools, non-essential business and all public events. If you must go out, wear a facemask.

Staying home and sitting out the flu will save lives but at terrible economic cost in lost business, lost jobs, etc. While you and I may value our life over money, not so for governments which feed on tax revenues. Since governments exist to prevent panic and to promote business, they will placate, lie, under report illnesses & deaths, over promote actions & cures, etc, to keep the peace. So Mexico deserves credit for putting the people first by declaring a National Emergency and quarantine.

Updates
WHO Raises Swine Flu Alert Level but stopped short of declaring a global emergency.
The suspected number of deaths rose to 149 in Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak with nearly 2,000 people believed to be infected. The number of U.S. cases rose to 48, the result of further testing at a New York City school, although none was fatal.

Swine Flu

How quickly can Swine Flu make you sick? About 90 minutes of CNN should do it. -American Digest

There is nothing better for a news company than FEAR. When they can sell the idea of "Watch our news or you might die", ratings improve and they make money. Too bad if the alarm was false or too extreme and you ended up wasting your time and your money.

Last night I was watching some conference talks from TED.com online. (Highly recommended!) One speaker from Africa described how his team put together a text messaging emergency alert system to cover riots, government-police actions, etc. It worked very well. In fact too well. The amount of public created "emergency" traffic from tweet and texting far exceeded the ability of responders to read it. In version 2 of the system they had to install ratings to judge the accuracy and reliability of senders to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Now Swine Flu is real and it is back. It is not yet a pandemic but people are acting as if it were. AmericanDigest.org shows how The Virus Does Not Travel at the Speed of Tweet, But the Tweet of the Virus Does. Panicked Tweeters were publishing "breaking news" from the CDC (Center of Disease Control) claiming that the virus was spreading and "could not be contained." USA Today reports Swine flu spreads panic in Mexico City. With 81 possible deaths in all of Mexico since April 13, health officials ordered some 500 cultural and sporting events cancelled. According to Bloomberg.com, the Mexican President declared an emergency April 25 and canceled school at all levels in Mexico City and the state of Mexico until further notice.

Precaution and preparation is important - for example Mexicans are urged to wear face masks in public. But keep a sense of perspective. In the US (2001 data) 2525 people died every day from heart attacks and 120 died every day from auto accidents. Why don't we see panics and government emergencies over butter and cars as agents of death? Every year the CDC estimates that 36,000 people in America die of "normal" flu but people still refuse to get "normal" flu shots. Blogger Ryan Sager writes

Our brains are pretty bad at assessing risk — we worry about flying (which is safe), while we love driving (which kills far more people); we worry about terrorism (which kills virtually no one), while we die of heart disease (No. 1 killer in the United States) — and so we vastly overestimate the chances that we, personally, might get swine flu.

In the article, Risk Communication Before and During Epidemics the author notes that there is a very low correlation between risk/harm and outrage/perceived risk.

Whatever your measure of harm, across a wide range of risks, the correlation between how much harm [a risk is] going to do and how upset people are going to get is this absurdly low 0.2 correlation.

Swine flu may get worse but right now driving your car is 40 to 100 times more deadly.

Bottom Line
Swine flu is serious but the 20 known cases in the US appear to be a mild strain. Watch the blogs and Internet for news but filter it for truth vs bias and rumors. Prepare but don't panic. If you have flu symptoms see a doctor and get tested for Swine flu, don't go to work or school and share the virus with others. Avoid people who are coughing or sneezing and wash your hand frequently. If you are very concerned: avoid crowds or wear a face mask (very common on Japan!)

Don't rely totally on the US government for information (and never rely on evening news casts). Governments will under AND over react. The Washington Post reports that U.S. public health officials did not know about a growing outbreak of swine flu in Mexico until nearly a week after that country started invoking protective measures, and didn't learn that the deaths were caused by a rare strain of the influenza until after Canadian officials did. (This despite our huge Department of Homeland Security!) Now with 20 mild cases of Swine flu in NY and CA and TX the US Department of Health declared "a public health emergency" on April 26. According to Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napilotano, the emergency declaration is standard operating procedure and enables 12 million doses of the drug Tamiflu to be distributed from Federal stockpiles to states that need to deal with a flu outbreak. The terminology here is terrible! An "emergency declaration" is standard operating procedure? What will the goverment call a real pandemic and crisis?

Update

US government claims it is prepared to handle Swine Flu despite the fact that after Obama's first 100 days we have no Surgeon General, no Secretary of Health and Human Services, and no appointees in any of the department’s 19 key posts.

NYT Story - To quarantine or not? Lesson from the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic

Resources
The CDC Swine Flu website is www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm
CDC Health Advisory, April 25, http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/pdf/HAN_042509.pdf
CDC Travel Advisories: http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/notices.aspx
World Health Organization (WHO) Epidemic News: http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/
Health Map: http://healthmap.org/en
Swine Flu News: http://health.einnews.com/news/swine-flu

Google Alerts: create an email alert of "Swine Flu" news as soon as it hits the internet.
Amazon has a site for a Bird Flu survival kit www.amazon.com/Bird-Flu-Survival-Kit-Basic/lm/RWDK3B57W2U2Q/

Airplane Evacuations

“Evacuating a plane can be quite perilous—whether you're a real passenger or a volunteer in a certification test. A government study of airline evacuation drills in the 1970s and 1980s found that almost 5 percent of the participants get hurt.“ – Slate

Who would have thought that 1 out of 20 passengers could be injured just getting off an airplane during an emergency evacuation? But if you think about, getting off a crowded airplane is never easy even during normal days. Now add darkness, smoke, panicking people, luggage everywhere, inflated life vests, and you have a recipe for chaos.

You also may not have much time. The FAA requires that the airplane's maximum capacity of passengers and crewmembers can evacuate the plane in less than 90 seconds—the time it takes a fire to engulf a standard cabin.

Can you guess the main cause of injury during plane evacuations?

It is the inflatable slide that can be up to 26 feet off the ground. The most common injury is “slide burn” when bare skin is scraped raw going down the slide. The next danger is “hitting” the ground when the “slow down” strips fail at the base of the slide. People have broken ankles and legs from reaching the ground too fast. The worst injury occurred when a volunteer tester fell off the top of the slide and hit the pavement head first.

All the above points are occurred when a Paris flight to Toronto made a hard emergency landing, caught fire and managed to evacuate everyone in less than two minutes, 75% got off within 52 seconds

Bags were “flying down” from the overhead bins, and the plane was coming apart…. “Stewardesses started pushing everyone out,”

People near the fire at the rear of the plane panicked.

“People were tripping over each other, climbing over the seats to get to the
exit”

At a front door there was no chute to slide down and the drop was about 12 feet. A second door had a damaged chute but it worked.

“I jumped and fell onto some people,” a passenger said, “Some people broke their
arms or legs.”

Bottom Line

Stay calm and be careful when evacuating a plane and you should be OK.

“There is this myth out there that says if you’re involved in a catastrophic aircraft accident the odds [of survival] are extremely low. That’s inaccurate. The odds are extremely high,” said Mark Rosenker, the acting chairman of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

See also this YouTube of 777 evacuation test

PS - this post is appearing a day early. I accidently entered 08 for the year and it is not so easy to unpublish an article once published.

Troubled Times

“I was reminded that when we lose and I strike out, a billion people in China don't care.” - Reggie Jackson

Here are two recent articles demonstrating that the world is becoming increasingly unstable.

Unrest in China Worse Than Widely Reported

Bankruptcies, unemployment and social unrest are spreading more widely in China than officially reported, according to independent research that paints an ominous picture for the world economy.

Vladimir Putin faces signs of mutiny in own government as protests break out in east

As Russia's economy begins to implode after years of energy-driven growth, Mr Putin is facing the germs of an unexpected power struggle … Mounting job losses and a collapse in the price of commodities have triggered social unrest on a scale not seen for at least four years, prompting panic among Kremlin officials more accustomed to the political apathy of the Russian people.

Bottom Line

With stories like this, I remain skeptical that the economy has hit bottom and will soon improve. We could experience a global depression lasting many years.

The 100 Items that Disappear First in a Panic

"I am afraid of the worst, but I am not sure what that is"
- Abraham Rotstein

Today I recommend reviewing the list 100 Items to Disappear First in a Panic from the blog Arkansas Soaper. If you had money to burn you could just go out and buy every item on this list of 100 but that's not preparing wisely. Part of emergency planning is deciding what YOU need and can use. While this list is a great help and might remind you of things you overlooked it may also items that won't be of any use in your household. I wouldn't buy item #100: chickens & goats or item #98: Cigarettes.

Bottom Line

Lists are great tools for planning but are not a substitute for planning.

Unmet Need for Information during Emergencies

"Difficulties are meant to rouse, not discourage" - William Ellery Channing

One thing you can count on during an emergency is terrible communication. During the NorthEast Blackout of 2003 I listened to a radio in my office in New York City to learn if Metro North train service was restored. I slept at the office and again waited the next morning for news of trains running. My wife was more reasonable. She called to say her friend could see trains moving with people. She instructed me to forget the "official reports" and get my butt to Grand Central Terminal and take any train leaving the city. I did and found that although GCT had no power, diesel trains were running and conductors were informing people which trains went where via megaphones. I got home but not with any help from news reports.

On another occasion I played a victim in a drill for a Sarin gas attack. Boom, the pretend bomb goes off. Then we wait and wait. Firemen come and go. Two persons in Bio hazard gear peak in a window but never say a word. Two hours after the bomb we can see shelters being raised and much activity but no one has gives the victims any instructions except for "say put". In real life those of us who could move would have fled the scene by then.

"Disaster victims need information about their options in order to take any meaningful choices about their future, " according to a recent article by the BBC World Trust Service. As the physical and psychological needs of disaster survivors change over time, information needs change also.

First Stage - Survival

1. Victims need to know what happened
2. How to get immediate survival needs satisfied
3. What has happened to family members and friends?

Providing these answers decreases panic and increases survivor capacity to take action. But the infrastructure for radio, television, and telephones has been destroyed. So how do you get information to those who need it most??? There are no easy answers.

Second Stage - Short Term Relief

1. Survivors look for availability of fresh water, shelter, and medical attention.
2. Expectation management is vital as relief may not fulfill needs as quickly as desired.

People who have knowledge of issues such as when and where food will be distributed, the amount of allocated rations per person, and how to cook the rations to maximise nutritional value, can help manage logistics, reduce corruption, and improve health and mental well being.

Third Stage - Long Term Recovery

1. People want to know what relief services are available and to what they are entitled.
2. They need to know about recently implemented policies that affect them, such as housing reconstruction guidelines or victim compensation policies.
3. What are the government and relief agencies accountable and responsible for?
4. Safety instructions (boil your water, etc) must be communicated.

Unmet communication needs can lead to further trauma and stress. "In particular, psychosocial studies increasingly note that information deprivation actually causes stress and exacerbates trauma..."

Bottom Line

Information is essential to give people "a sense of power and purpose over their own destiny" during a disaster. It is a "critical issue." The providing of information becomes a form of aid and deserves prioritisation through the development of effective and properly resourced communication strategies. If you are an Emergency Manager please read the BBC report for communication recommendations.

Earthquakes and LAFD

On July 29 L.A experienced a magnitude 5.4 earthquake. This is classified as "moderate" with slight damage to buildings by the USGS. Fortunately the L.A. Fire Department is a national leader in disaster response and preparedness.

• The LAFD has published an excellent Emergency Preparedness manual (PDF).
  
• In 1985 the LAFD began a program of Citizen Emergency Response Teams (CERT) to provide citizens with basic training in disaster survival and rescue skills to improve the ability to survive until responders or other assistance could arrive. In 1994 the CERT program was made national under the guidance of the Emergency Management Institute (EMI) of FEMA. My wife and I are CERT members in NY and recommend it highly.
  
• The early '80s also saw the creation of the Incident Command Structure (ICS), born from the need to coordinate local, state and federal rescue agencies during California forest fires. Today ICS is the FEMA approved organization plan for all emergency response.

Bottom Line: Preparation prevents Panic. An informed and trained public can play a positive role in emergency response. I'll close with some L.A. earthquake humor. Erin at TopShelf has created an L.A. scale for measuring earthquakes. For example:

5.0 is a Hug-a-Tourist. That's when a perfect stranger in the mall grabs you and hangs on for dear life and you know they're from out of town.
5.5 is a Ceiling Check, all the natives and people who've been here for twenty years or more will look up at the nearest door, just to make sure they know where it is.

See the complete list at http://bigclosetr.us/topshelf/blog-entry/8580/counting-seismologists-or-earthquake-terminology-101#new