Extreme Weather Preparation

Here's some extreme weather advice from USA.gov.

Summertime can bring a range of weather challenges and potential dangers. Some of these threats can occur with little warning, so do what you can to prepare by assembling an emergency kit and forming a plan of action. Find out what you should do if faced with the following weather dangers:

Lightning: In the U.S., lightning kills more people each year than tornadoes and hurricanes. If you can hear thunder, you are within striking distance and should seek shelter in an enclosed building or vehicle. While indoors, don't use a corded phone, a computer or other electrical appliances; and avoid contact with plumbing (don't shower, wash hands, do laundry, etc.). Learn more about lightning safety and get tips on what to do if you're outdoors during a thunderstorm.

Floods: If you have time, move essential items to an upper floor. Do not touch electrical equipment if you are wet or standing in water. Do not walk through moving water that is six inches or higher. If floodwaters rise around your car, abandon the car and move to higher ground. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a flood.

Hurricanes: If you can't evacuate, get inside and secure external and internal doors. Stay away from windows and doors and take refuge in a small interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a hurricane.

Tornadoes: Storm cellars and basements are the safest locations, but if they aren't available, go to an interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level. Stay away from windows, doors, outside walls, and corners. If you are in a trailer or mobile home, go to a sturdy, nearby building. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a tornado.

Extreme Heat: Stay indoors as much as possible. Consider spending the hottest part of the day in an air-conditioned public building, such as a library or shopping mall. Never leave children or pets alone in vehicles. Learn more about what to do in extreme heat.

Wildfires: If your home is threatened by a wildfire, you must evacuate. If you have time, bring an emergency kit that includes copies of important documents. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a wildfire.

Earthquakes: If you are indoors, stay away from windows, doors, and outside walls and get under a sturdy table or desk. If you are outside, keep away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires. If you're in a moving vehicle, safely stop the vehicle in an open area and stay inside. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake.

Consumer Math - Price Extremes

For the first half of the 20th century, Economists assumed that buyers were rational, i.e. that they would also do that made the most sense mathematically. But experiments showed that buyers are very irrational by influenced by things we are often not even aware of. TheAtlantic.com gives some examples in The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math.

Anchor Bias

Most of us have no idea what a fair price is for a home so instead we have to build a mental model of price comparisons and determine if the price is reasonable. Salespersons take advantage of this by showing the highest priced items first. Suppose you want a pool table. The salesperson will first show you a $10,000 model with amazing features. Oh, that's way too much. Next a $5000 table that's on sale. Uh, still too high. How about this $3000 model for bargain hunters? You take it because it seems like such a deal in comparison and you're beginning to look cheap. In reality there are many fine pool tables for under $3000 but the salesperson has distorted your mental price model artificially high. Odds are that $10,000 pool table will never sell but it's used to distort your perception of a fair price range.

Some menus take advantage of price anchors by listing early and prominently a steak or lobster at a high cost. So anything you order seems a bargain in comparison.

The book Priceless give a real example, Williams-Sonoma doubled sales of a $279 bread maker by adding a $429 bread maker next to their $279 model. Nothing had changed in the old model but now it looked like a bargain in comparison.

Price Extremes & Goldilocks

Given a range of prices and product choices which do we pick? Most will shun the highest priced thinking it must be overpriced and shun the lowest priced because it must be somehow inferior to allow for the super low price. So we pick a price in the middle of the range that's not too high or too low but just right regardless of the actual merits of the products themselves.

Consumer Math - Unit Cost

The Atlantic has a great article titled The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math which will be the basis of my blogs this week.

Would you rather get a 33% discount off the price or 33% more product (more coffee, more cereal, etc)?

It turns out these are not the same. When you compare two products it's not enough just to say, product A is cheaper than B. What if B contains twice as much as A but only costs 50% more? Then B is the bargain. The trick to comparing different sizes of the same product is to use UNIT COST, that is dollars per quantity where quantity is some common unit of measurement like cups or pounds.

UNIT COST =  $cost / quantity

Now lets return to the original question. Which is better: a 33% discount or 33% more product?
The 33% discount reduces the top part of unit cost by 1/3 and new unit cost is 2/3 of the old.
The 33% more product  increases the bottom part of unit cost by 1 1/3,  or an increase of 4/3 in the denominator. We invert that number to find the new unit cost is 3/4.   And since fractions are difficult to compare let's convert everything back to percentages:
33% discount means a new unit cost 64% of the old
33% more product means a new unit cost that is 75% of the old
Discount wins!

"This is your brain on shopping, and it's not very smart" - The Atlantic

Was the 20th century abnormally normal?

FuturePundit makes an interesting observation that the 20th century may have been abnormally quiet in regard to mega-disasters. It's the best documented century in human history with photos, movies, radio, TV, blogs, etc and when we think of "history" our window is often the past 100 years. But go back another 100 years to the 19th century.

The first half of the 19th century was still in the grip of the Little Ice Age, a period of unusual cold lasting 500 years from 1350 to 1850. When we think of snowy Victorian Christmas with ice skaters on frozen rivers, that was the influence of the Little Ice Age.

In 1811 there was an 8.1-8.2 earthquake on the New Madrid fault in middle America which caused the Mississippi River to temporarily flow backwards and permanently changed its course. A repeat of this today would be devastating.

In 1884 New York City had a 5.5 quake and is due for a repeat. Los Angeles and Tokyo are also past due for major quakes like the 1875 SoCal quake of magnitude 7.9.

How about a big bang like Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815? The eruption further cooled the planet so that snow fell in New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces in June. It caused the biggest famine of the 19th century.

In 1859 there was a massive solar eruption that caused intense magnetic fields on Earth. An equivalent today could fry our electronics and power grid.

The 1900s were extremely tame in comparison.

Without power for over a week

"That's the night the lights went out in Georgia"
-lyrics in song of the same name

The day before Halloween, a freak snowstorm dump inches of wet heavy snow on New York, New Jersery, and New England states. Because the trees still had leaves attached, hundreds of thousands of braches became too heavy and broke. Now this does not sound like a big deal, certainly not as flashy a disaster as a hurricane or earthquake, and yet the consequences have been extreme. The Halloween nor'easter knocked out power to over 3 million homes. Connecticut was hit especially hard and over 100,000 residents of Connecticut are without power a week after the storm and they are NOT happy about it.  See Tempers flare over 6 days of Conn. power outages written on Nov 4.

“Angry residents left without heat as temperatures drop to near freezing overnight have been lashing out at Connecticut Light & Power: accosting repair crews, making profane criticisms online and suing. In Simsbury, a hard-hit suburban town of about 25,000 residents, National Guard troops deployed to clear debris have been providing security outside a utility office building.”

Abusing the work crews is a VERY bad idea. Some of these repairmen have left their familes in mid-west states to work here around the clock.  (A loose wire at our house was fixed at 3:30 in the morning.)

What went wrong? One reader of Instapundit, surmises,

Not sure what goes wrong, but it sounds like greed in not wanting to hire enough workers, failure to pay out of state crews that came up to help with Irene, incompetence, and poor character.

It's possible that Connecticut Light & Power (CL&P) underestimated the massive scope of the damage and was slow to mobilize outside help. Regional disasters like this are particuallarly hard to solve because you cannot just call in workmen from neighboring states. Instead those states are desparate for extra repairmen also and everyone is competing for workers from outside the disaster area. And this is a repeat from just months ago during "hurricane" Irene so "favors" used up, emergency funds spent, emergency workers burnt out.

Bottom Line

It's events like this that show why you must be able to take care of yourself and your family. Can you supply your own heat, light and food for two weeks? If not, why not?

Why don't people prepare?

A family is a unit composed not only of children but of men, women, an occasional animal, and the common cold.
~Ogden Nash

My wife found an article (sorry I cannot locate the link) that lists several reasons why families are not prepared and set the reasons to the Acronym FAMILIES.

F (Fear) - It's just too much to think about. Or, what's the point, I'll be dead.
Solution: think of the positives - the peace of mind of knowing that you are ready should some misfortune happen.

A (Attention Span - lack thereof) I'll get around to it when I have the time. Or I'm just too busy.
Solution: preparedness can be done in little steps like buying extra cans of food when it is on sale, setting up an automatic deposit to emergency savings, etc. Lack of time can also mean that your life's priorities should be reexamined.

M (Media) The news, especially TV, creates a Boy Who Cried Wolf scenario where every storm is urgent, breaking news and then turns out to be minor. People burn out and stop believing the warnings. Just how bad can that hurricane be if the newsman is outside standing in the middle of it?
Solution: if you have food storage and water storage you can "weather" most storms. The exception will be when ordered to evacuate the neighborhood.

I (Ill-informed) I have a 72-hour kit so I'm prepared. Or - the only way to be prepared is to learn survivalist skills and move to a farm.
Solution: the truth is in the middle. A 72-kit is not enough but you can be prepared without moving to the country and learning to live without civilization.

L (Lifestyle) I don't want to change how I live, I'm comfortable and happy as-is.
Solution: It's great if you want to learn to make your own bread but you can be prepared in little steps as described above and modest changes like filling up the gas in your car more often so it never goes below a half.

I (Income) I can't afford it.
Solution: I'm not a big fan of spending thousands to buy a year's supply of freeze-dried food for the family. Stock up on items you use during sales and you'll save money in the long run.

E (Ego) I'll just call 9-1-1 and I'll be taken care of.
Solution: during an emergency thousands of others are calling 9-1-1 also? What makes you think that you're at the front of the queue?

S (Selflessness) I'm not worried about me; I want to take care of others.
Solution: if you're not prepared you'll be a burden on others who will need to feed you. Only if you have extra supplies will you be in a position to help others.

Bottom Line

Don't delay - prepare today!

Foolish Myths

For April Fool's I'll bring back a post from two years ago about Disaster Prep Myths...

The first of April, some do say
Is set apart for All Fool's Day;
But why the people call it so
Nor I, nor they themselves, do know,
But on this day are people sent
On purpose for pure merriment.
- Anonymous

MYTH: “Disasters are Random Killers”
FACT:  Disasters are more likely to kill those living in substandard housing and the uninformed. Japan with strict building codes survived the earthquaking (the Tsunami caused most damage). While in Haiti an earthquake caused massive damage with cheaply made building. – Pan American Health Organization

MYTH: “If something happens all I have to do is call 911.”
FACT: “Security, like charity, begins at home and the responsibility for your family’s safety rests on your shoulders.” – Paul Purcell, security analyst and preparedness consultant. 911 will be overwhelmed (if functioning at all). There are not enough rescue workers to rescue everyone immediately.

MYTH: “All I need is a 72-hour kit with a flashlight, first aid kit, some food and water and a radio to hear further instruction.”
FACT: You need to be self-sufficient for a minimum of one week.

MYTH: I don’t need to prepare because when “big one” hits, I’m dead anyway
FACT: “Mass Destruction” does NOT mean “Total Destruction.” When the atom bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, Eizo Nomura survived in a basement just 100m from ground zero. Akiko Takakura survived 300m from the blast center inside a solidly built bank.

MYTH: I don’t need to prepare because nothing like that could ever happen here.
FACT: Each part of the world has its own unique disaster potential. I wrote earlier about a preparedness specialist in the Chicago suburbs who knew he was unlikely to ever experience earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. Imagine his surprise when ordered to evacuate his home because an abandoned train car had caught fire and potentially deadly fumes were drifting through his neighborhood.

MYTH: “Food shortages are inevitable after every disaster”
FACT: Food is usually available but frequently not accessible. (Hence the need for family supplies until roads are clear.) The real shortage after most disasters is clean drinking water. - Jean Luc Poncelet, MD

MYTH: “I received money for another disaster or from another agency or I make too much money, so there’s no point in applying for aid”
FACT: Every disaster is considered separately. And while FEMA will not duplicate insurance benefits, you may be eligible for help with losses not covered or with damages in excess of your coverage ("under-insured"). Most federal and state disaster assistance programs are available to ALL who suffered damages regardless of your income. - FEMA

MYTH: “I gave my information to a local emergency manager (or the Red Cross) so FEMA already has my case details.”
FACT: To be eligible for federal and state disaster assistance, you must apply online at http://www.disasterassistance.gov/ or by calling 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) (TTY 1-800-462-7585).

MYTH: “When a foreign disaster occurs, send ASAP every available volunteer (especially doctors) and send supplies of everything as quickly as possible.”
FACT: “The myth that the affected local population is helplessly waiting for the Western world to save it is also false, especially in countries with a large – but unevenly distributed – medical population. In fact, only a handful of survivors owe their lives to foreign teams. Most survivors owe their lives to neighbors and local authorities.” - Dr. Claude de Ville de Goyet. Unplanned and unorganized humanitarian aid supplies can be useless and clog distribution sites from receiving supplies that are critical. It is best to ASK what is needed before leaping to conclusions.

MYTH: “Life will be back to normal in a few weeks”
FACT: Long after the media cameras have moved onto the next big story, people will be rebuilding homes and local infrastructure. “The greatest need for assistance appears several weeks and months after the event. It takes several years to rebuild a badly damaged area.” - Pan American Health Organization

BOTTOM LINE

Don't be caught looking foolish. Read the articles linked to above. There’s a lot to learn about preparing your home and what NOT to do when helping others.

Good, Better, Best

"This porridge is too hot!" she exclaimed.
So, she tasted the porridge from the second bowl.
"This porridge is too cold," she said
So, she tasted the last bowl of porridge.
"Ahhh, this porridge is just right," she said happily and she ate it all up.
- from Goldilocks and the Three Bears

After three days of introspection and the inability of some to accurately "know thyself" let's return to an actual preparedness topic.

SurvivalBlog.com has a post called Preparedness Provisioning (Good, Better, Best), by Bill L.  It captures an idea that I have long struggled with - the ideal list. Everyone wants a list. This month at church we are handing out a list for making your own first aid kit. We thought long and hard over what to include; it should be more than bandaids but less than a "professional" kit. It was not easy creating a list that was "just right."

What the SurvivalBlog posts suggests is that there is not one list that is a perfect fit for everyone.

"When beginning ... it can be overwhelming as to what and how much would be needed to provide for simple survival. ... Without a plan you will be tempted to start gathering an unorganized pile of “stuff” that has value, but does not ensure that you are prepared."

The author breaks planning into three necessities with three phases. The three necessities are food, water and shelter. The three phases are Good, Better, and Best. It does not make sense to buy the world's best food storage system and then have no heat and no water. Instead families should obtain a Good stockpile of all basic necessities. Then move on to Better for all three. And then if so motivated, try to assemble the Best.

The Good level of preparedness used to be called the 72-hr kit but now everyone recommends one week of supplies for local disasters:

FOOD:

• A one week supply of usable non-perishable nutritious food
• A means of cooking without power or natural gas, i.e. propane stove, wood, etc
• A grab and go kit of food in case you have to evacuate

WATER:

• Clean stored water equivalent to 2 gallons/day per person to last one week
• Knowledge of secondary water sources (e.g. your 40 gal water heater)
• Means of water purification (pump, chemical, or UV light)

SHELTER:

• Keep your home warm and lit when the grid is down
• Quality tent and sleeping bag ( as part of your grab and go kit)

If you've at the Good level and want to do Better, check out the full post at http://www.survivalblog.com/2011/01/preparedness_provisioning_good.html

Bottom Line

Next time I'll apply this concept when I create a list. There will be a Good section that everyone should have. Some Better items for those who want to go further, and a Best section for the super dedicated.

Not everyone desires or sees the need for the Best. And some never get started when the goal is set at Better or above. So think of Goldilocks and remember that there are different preferences for what is "just right".

Fragile!

“I get mail; therefore I am.” - cartoonist Scott Adams

As you wrap up your Christmas gifts for shipping, consider this, "The overnight-shipping industry is a modern technological and logistical wonder, but it still can inflict medieval damage on parcels" Popular Mechanics put this to the test by shipping packages that included a device that measured acceleration, orientation and temperature for 74 hours. The parcel was shipped a dozen times using FedEx, UPS and the U.S. Postal Service who were unaware of the test. As a baseline, it was noted that a moderate jostle exerts 2 g's of force, while a 2.5-foot drop registers 6 g's; the latter was set as the limit for "rough treatment."

"After crunching the data and averaging the number of spikes recorded by each carrier on each trip, we found that the USPS has the gentlest touch, with a per-trip average of 0.5 acceleration spikes over 6 g's. FedEx and UPS logged an average of three and two big drops per trip, respectively. ... One disheartening result was that our package received more abuse when marked "Fragile" or "This Side Up." The carriers flipped the package more, and it registered above-average acceleration spikes during trips for which we requested careful treatment."

Bottom Line

When shipping place peanuts or other padding on ALL sides of the package. It can be dropped from any position. Do not mark the package Fragile or This End Up. This actually angers some carriers who take delight in giving such packages extra rough treatment.

Experiencing a Hurricane

I loved this story, Lessons Learned from Hurricane Ike, by John in Texas, from SurvivalBlog.com. I do not usually copy an entire blog post but this one is so excellent I hate to cut any of it out...

I really appreciate the people who share their lessons learned on SurvivalBlog.com, so I thought I would share my experiences and lessons learned from Hurricane Ike.


Hurricane Ike hit Houston on Friday night September 13, 2008. The hurricane was classified as a strong category 2 with maximum sustained winds of 110 MPH. What was unusual about this hurricane was the large size of the storm. Hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from the center.


Gas stations in our area ran out of gas the day before the storm (Thursday). I waited in a very long line of cars only to find out that the station had run out of Regular gas. I was happy to pay extra to fill up with Premium. The gas station was a zoo with everyone in panic mode. It was all the owner could do to maintain order with people complaining about credit card issues, the station running out of Regular, and how people were taking too long to buy gas. I will never again wait until the last minute to buy gas. Grocery stores were also crazy. The grocery stores we visited had all run out of bottled water and batteries. People were buying canned goods and ice in large quantities.


On Friday morning I finished installing our plywood storm shutters on our most vulnerable windows and bringing everything inside that could be damaged by the high winds. In the afternoon we continued with our preparations inside. We charged all of our batteries, filled up our camping water storage bags, and got all of our battery lamps ready. I also setup inverters and car batteries in the house for backup power.

Our home is about 70 miles north of the coast. The high winds and rain started to hit around 9 PM on Friday night. We went to bed early to try to get some sleep before the strongest winds of the storm hit. Around 1 AM the wind was making so much noise that I was no longer able to sleep. The house was making a lot of strange noises due to the high winds. It was at that point that my panic started to build. What made me feel uneasy was the fact that my family and I were completely on our own. If we had any kind of emergency, I would not be able to call anyone for help. What helped me to calm down was keeping busy reviewing all of my preparations and walking around the house checking for problems.


Our power was intermittent most of the night and finally went out around 2 AM. The television weatherman said that when your electricity goes out, that is when you know the strong winds are approaching. That is exactly what happened in our case. I continued watching the news with a battery powered television. A television is very helpful to track the movement of the storm. Since television stations in our area no longer broadcast analog television signals, I will have to find another solution to receive digital television with backup power for future storms.


As I watched the eye of the storm pass near our home to the East on television, I thought the worst was over. To my surprise, the strongest winds hit our house on the back side of the storm. During the peak winds, I heard a loud crash and our entire house shook. I ran upstairs and found a tree had hit our house. I was amazed at the damage. The roof framing, roof decking, shingles, sheet-rock, insulation, and tree branches had fallen into my son’s bedroom. The larger tree branches had come through the roof like spears. Fortunately, I had insisted that everyone sleep down stairs during the storm. As the hurricane force winds raged outside, we rushed around in the dark trying to find something to catch the water. We needed a lot of bins and buckets to catch the water falling from such a large area of the roof. This kept us very busy for the rest of the night as we were constantly bailing the water out of all of the bins. We were able to catch enough of the water that the sheetrock downstairs was not damaged.


As the sun came up, we were able to see the damage outside. Most of the large pine trees near our home had been blown down. The tree that hit our house was a large pine in our neighbor’s yard. The tree had broken at mid-height and the top part of the tree was still connected to the bottom half. A second tree in my neighbor’s yard has snapped (clean break) and the top half landed in my back yard. A third tree had landed on the roof of the house behind ours and the top part was in our yard. We also had a mature queen palm that had blown over. The trees all fell in different directions. I do not think it was a tornado from the hurricane that blew down the trees since the damage was so widespread in our neighborhood. The funny thing was that I had cut down all of the tall pine trees in my yard after I realized how dangerous they could be if they fell on the house. All the pine trees that hit my house and landed in my yard were all from my neighbors and all of the cleanup efforts and repairs were my responsibility. My neighbors paid none of the cost to remove the trees or repair the damage to my home and yard.


The day after the hurricane hit, I called insurance company and told I was on my own and I could not make any major repairs before the Insurance Adjuster arrived. We started the cleanup process by removing all shingles, roof decking, tree branches, sheet rock, and insulation that was in the room. The contractor (thick plastic) garbage bags we had worked great for this cleanup. I highly recommend everyone keep a few boxes of these contractor bags for emergencies. We then pulled up the carpet and removed the wet pad. We used fans to circulate the air and help dry the room out. We learned from a previous flooding that if the house is not dried out quickly, a strong musty odor will develop. Since we could not put a tarp on the roof due to the tree, we hung a tarp inside the room to catch all the water and funnel it into a large bucket. The tree company we hired to remove the trees in our yard used a 100-ton crane to remove the tree on our house.


We started running our generator the first day using gas. The only gas I had was two years old with Sta-Bil gas stabilizer added. I was amazed the generator ran well on two year old gas. I now rotate my gas yearly and put it on my calendar so I won’t forget. Our generator has a natural gas conversion kit installed. After the rain stopped, we moved the generator to our back yard and connected it to natural gas. The generator ran flawlessly for 13 hours per day on natural gas. I remember praying that our generator would keep running since we were totally dependent on it for all of our power. I strongly recommend a good quality generator and maintain it well for best reliability. My natural gas bill went up $100 and my electricity bill went down $200, so I actually saved money running the generator.


Our generator is 7,500 Watts, so supporting the electrical load of the entire house had to be done carefully. We powered everything in the house except the central air-conditioning. The generator load monitor we had was very helpful. As long as we kept the load under 50%, we had no problems. When the load was at 70%, we sometimes had problems. At 90%, the generator circuit breakers would trip within a few seconds.


While working in our yard near the generator, I started to feel the effects on Carbon Monoxide poisoning (headache, nausea, and fatigue). I realized what was happening and went indoors to recover. I am now extra careful when working around a running generator. We also use Carbon Monoxide detectors in our house when running the generator.


All gas stations and stores in our area were closed after the storm since there was no electricity. Stores reopened slowly as emergency generators were brought in. When the grocery stores opened, they had none of the basic items (eggs, milk, orange juice, bread, hamburger, etc.). After the storm we lost electricity, cable/internet, and phone service. We had no problems with water, sewer, and natural gas service. Many of the nearby neighborhoods had no water and one had limited sewer service. I was surprised that phone service went down after 24 hours. After about a week, the phone company restored service with portable generators they connected to the phone system equipment in the neighborhood. We had no power for 10 days. Neighbors asked us to charge their cell phones, laptops, and DVD players. We setup a table in front room with power strips for them to use. The item most requested by my neighbors was ice. I made extra ice before the storm and filled many 1 gallon freezer bags. After two days, neighbors started to clear out their refrigerators and freezers. We had many offers to take their frozen food. Several of our neighbors had electric stoves and could not cook. They came over to our house and used our gas stove to cook dinner.


We decided to shut down our generator at night to keep a low profile and so we did not disturb the neighbors (too much). At night I used our inverters to power our refrigerators and freezers. I was disappointed that we were only getting 3-4 hours of run time from a standard car battery. On the third night, the inverter I was using for our large freezer stopped working. I took the inverter apart and found many of the internal components had been damaged. The operating power of the freezer was within the rated load of the inverter, but the surge current was not. I am now more careful about overloading inverters. I also purchased larger deep-cycle marine batteries to extend my run time. With our generator not running for 11 hours at night, I found the freezers were able to maintain a safe temperature, but the refrigerators were not. I solved this problem by adding blue-ice to the refrigerators at night.


Many of our neighbors and friends told us they were going to buy a generator and prepare for the next hurricane. None did. As soon as the power came back on, they forgot all about it.


My wife does not support my preparation efforts. She has always told me that our generator was a waste of money and a hurricane is never going to hit Houston. As our neighbors and friends told us how smart we were to buy a generator, I thought to myself I have finally won this argument. Unfortunately (for me), I was mistaken. She still says the generator was a waste of money and a hurricane is never going to hit us again.


We spent more time preparing than anyone else on our street and ended up with the most damage to our house and yard. Just because you are prepared, don’t assume everything will go well for you. This is my biggest lesson learned from the storm.


The entire process of filing an insurance claim, hiring contractors, completing all necessary repairs, and negotiating the final settlement with the insurance company took well over a year. Overall we were blessed that the damage was not worse, we did not have to move out of our home, we had a good test of our emergency preparations, and we learned a lot from the storm.

Bottom Line

I love the lines, "Many of our neighbors and friends told us they were going to buy a generator and prepare for the next hurricane. None did."  and "[my wife,] She still says the generator was a waste of money and a hurricane is never going to hit us again."  Note also that the damage to the house and yard was from the neighbor's trees.

Some people will never be convinced that preparation is useful. There are none so blind as those that refuse to see.

Practical Preparedness

“A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government.” - Edward Abbey

Since this is a blog with "Preparedness" in the title, you may wonder, why do so many of the posts deal with government or the economy? My philosophy is Practical Preparedness. There are other sites dedicated to The End Of The World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) but that is not my style. I'm not an ex-marine or a gun owner who will protect the homestead when civilization collapses. The odds are that the World will not end during my life time.

The early Apostles after the death of Christ sincerely believed the world would end during their lifetime, "I will come like a thief in the night", "no one knows the time". Paul wrote in his letters that it was best to be celibate (no sex, no kids) but if you lacked the self-control to wait for "The End" then it was better to marry than to burn in hell for the sin of adultery. The Shakers were a religious group that took this idea seriously and as a result I think there is one living Shaker today, a young person who converted decades ago before the last of the sect died of old age before the End occurred.

In this blog I focus on events that can and do happen - taxes, debt, medical issues, recession, unemployment, first aid, accidents, and so forth. Preparedness requires two things: knowledge/training and supplies. In theory there are idiot-proof supplies like modern heart defibrillators and the super-McGyver types who can survive by wit alone but the majority needs supplies and the skills to use the supplies properly. There are families who never use their buckets of whole wheat because they have no clue how to cook with it.

With supplies you can take the extreme approach of a year's supply to stockpiling for TEOTWAWKI or the more practical approach of a cache that will get you through a local disaster or help buffer unemployment and other serious life events. This is one week to 3 months of supplies of Food, Water, and Money.

The money cache is important - especially if you get laid off like I did. You can not pay your taxes and bills with canned goods. And so I include in this blog posts about the government or economy that can affect your take-home pay. The most serious of these is high-taxation which is a drag on the economy and discourages job creation. Both the Federal and State governments have the attitude that it is the duty of the public to pay high tax rates to support government programs. This is a dangerous reversal on the principles of the Founding Fathers of minimal-government and the protection of individual rights.

Bottom Line

Americans now work to support the government and this is a very, very difficult thing to change. Hence the many articles on the subject to raise awareness.

Steps to take before a Hurricane arrives

“You do not have to be a hurricane, to turn things around”

- Loesje (Dutch Fictional character)

As discussed yesterday, Hurricane Earl reminded me that hurricane season is upon us. Here is a not so simple list of things you should do before a storm hits.

1. Food Safety

• Set the freezer temperature at or below 0 °F. Set the refrigerator just below 40 °F.
  
    
• Fill many clean soda bottles with water and freeze them (don’t fill to the top, leave some room for ice expansion). The frozen water bottles can also be used in the refrigeration and coolers. When melted, you can drink the water. 
  
    
• Freeze refrigerated items such as leftovers, milk, and fresh meat that spoil easily. 
  
    
• A full freeze will stay cold longer.
  
    
• Have coolers on hand. After a hurricane, place refrigerated food you want to use in coolers and then leave the fridge and freeze closed.

2. Food & Water

• Stock up on drinking water – 1 gallon per person per day. Pets need water too. Tap water will NOT be safe to drink after a hurricane.
  
    
• Have enough ready to eat food on hand for family and pets for at least three days, preferably one week or more. You may need to feed yourself for a week with no working stove or microwave. 
  
• Pack your food and water so you can quickly move to your car if you must evacuate.

3. Lights

• With no power the night is really dark. Stock up on flashlights, batteries, lanterns, etc. The Red Cross discourages candles - too many house fires from candle accidents. Encourage going to bed when the sun sets or you’ll run out of lighting real fast.

4. Stay Informed

• Get a battery-powered or hand-crank radio. Store extra batteries if needed.
  
• Cell phones are great but how will you keep it charged? Consider hand crank rechargers and rechargers that plug into the car cigarette lighter. There are also solar power rechargers.  

5. Evacuation Preparation

• Create a portable evacuation kit for each family member and each pet.
  
• Select an evacuation location – where will you go? A hotel out of the emergency region? A friend or relative’s house far away? An emergency shelter? A camp ground?
  
• If camping, you’ll need to pack camping gear like a tent and sleeping bags or blankets.
  
• Maps and/or GPS – how will you get out of town? Some roads may be closed as traffic is forced along official evacuation routes.
  
• Communication Plan – how can you be contacted after evacuating? Share your cell phone and email with friends, family and religious leader(s).
  
• Family Reunion Plan – if your family is separated by work, school, etc, how will you locate each other afterwards? Details will follow in another email.
  
• Pet Plan – Red Cross shelters and many hotels will not accept pets. Or the friend you’re going to stay with is allergic to cats. Will you take your pet with you?
  
• Keep at least a 1/2 tank of gas in your car. Don't expect to find gas if an evacuation is ordered.

6. Health

• Make a list of all medications used by family members (and pets). Record the dosage and frequency. You may need this if someone is hospitalized or forgets to pack a medication.
  
• Make or buy First Aid Kits. Keep one in the house and another in each car. Clean any and all wounds – infection is a serious problem after floods and hurricanes. 
  
• With no water pressure, your toilet won’t flush. Have a toilet plan be it buckets and bags, grey water for flushing, a pit in the backyard, etc. Do you have a week’s supply of toilet paper?
  
• Fill the bathtub and other large containers with water beforehand. Use the water for sponge baths and then use the soapy water for toilet flushing.
  
• Pack feminine supplies and personal hygiene items. Stress does funny things to bodies.

7. Important Papers

• Make copies of important documents: driver's license, Social Security card, proof of residence, insurance policies, wills, deeds, birth and marriage certificates, tax records, etc. Take these with you if you evacuate.
  
• Write down the name and phone number for insurance policies, bank accounts, family physicians, etc. Who might you need to call after the emergency and away from home?
  
• Have a photograph of each family member and pet. You may need this if they become lost or separated.
  
• Make copies of irreplaceable family photos.
  
• Take a video or photographs of your house BEFORE the hurricane to show an insurance agent when you make claims. This way you can prove that big hole was not in the roof beforehand.
  
• Pack cash and credit/debit cards. During the Katrina evacuation some cash stations refused cash because they feared being robbed. In areas without power, you’ll need cash or barter items.

8. Peace of Mind

• Emergencies are stressful, especially for young children who don’t understand. Have comfort food and comfort items on hand and ready to go. Include favorite books and toys. Include a Book of Mormon and song books.
  
• Keep children busy with tasks or coloring books. Ask older siblings to entertain younger ones.
  
• Pack plenty of aspirin or equivalent for headaches and pain. (Aspirin can be dangerous for young children).
  
•  Don’t forget diaper rash ointment, teething gels, and other items to ease a crying infant.
  
• Sleep is essential to maintain strength. Pack a favorite pillow or anything else that will help you sleep.

9. Prepare your Home

• Cover all of your windows with pre-cut ply wood or hurricane shutters to protect your windows from high winds. No plywood? Crisscross the windows with duct tape.
• Bring in all outdoor furniture, decorations, garbage cans and anything else not tied down.
• Trim trees and shrubs to make them wind resistant.
• Turn off propane tanks and gas lines.
• Store your boat if you have one.

Hurricane Season

"It is better to meet danger than to wait for it. He that is on a lee shore, and foresees a hurricane, stands out to sea and encounters a storm to avoid a shipwreck."-Charles Caleb Colton

Today I'll let someone else do all the talking. Check out Hurricane Readiness at SurvivalBlog.com. It covers what to do before, during and after a hurricane and ends with a supply list.

Bottom Line

A hurricane is not something you can prepare for last minute. Check out the article and prepare now if you live in a hurricane zone.

The Return of the Rule of Threes

“We need 4 hugs a day for survival. We need 8 hugs a day for maintenance. We need 12 hugs a day for growth.”-Virginia Satir

This weekend my wife and I had an opportunity to train local Church Emergency Specialists. I chose as my topic the subject matter that started my blog almost two years ago,
The Rule of Threes.

The rule goes like this...

You may survive (on average)

Three minutes without air

Three hours without shelter
(i.e. protection from extreme heat or cold)

Three days without water

Three weeks without food

Three months without hope

The Rule of Threes explains some common survival errors:

1. By using a charcoal grill or power generator indoors during a power outage, you're trading shelter/heat for air and may die of asphyxiation.

2. By eating snow when thirsty you give up body heat and may die of hypothermia before you die of thirst.

3. Likewise don't sacrifice shelter when searching for water. Sunstroke kills faster than thirst.

4. By eating dried food like jerky when water is scarce you are speeding up your own dehydration and death.

Bottom Line

It's useful to keep the priorities in mind - we tend for focus on hunger pains and thirst and overlook core principles like air and body heat which are more subtle but silent killers.

My early blogs provide additional information on the topics of air, heat, cold, water, and food:

http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/07/carbon-monoxide-poisoning.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/hypothermia.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/hyperthermia.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/heat-exhaustion.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-much-water-is-enough.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/meals-ready-to-eat-and-other-options.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/survival-kitchen_12.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-much-food-is-enough.html

Spring-Cleaning

Take me for a ride in your Car-Car
Take me for a ride in your Car-Car
Take me for a ride, Take me for a ride,
Take me for a ride in your Car-Car
- song by Peter, Paul and Mary

At the vernal equinox on March 20 in New York, there was great hope that Spring had sprung and vanquished Winter. But alas Winter returned and hung around for several weeks afterwards. So depending upon where you live, you may or may not be ready to begin spring-cleaning.

One item that does not readily come to my mind during spring-cleaning is the car. But the interior is quite dusty and I’m sure the exterior could use some elbow grease too. Consumer Reports has the following advice for “How to wash away winter and get your car looking like new”.

The interior

- Throw out the trash. Remove unneeded items.
- Organize what remains into side pockets or compartments.
- Use a mild spray and a microfiber cloth to remove dust and grime off the dash and consoles.
- Vacuum the seats, floor mats, rugs, and trunk. (personally I’d do this before dusting, not afterwards)
- Try a spray-on carpet cleaner to remove any seat stains. For leather trim, use a leather cleaner.
- Clean the inside windows with glass cleaner, but spray directly on a cloth to avoid streaking.

The exterior

- Never wash or wax a car in direct sunlight or if the paint is hot to the touch. The sun softens the paint and makes it easier to scratch.
- Use a dedicated car-wash soap designed not to scratch automotive paint.
- Apply the suds with a large, soft natural sponge or a lamb's-wool mitt (anti-scratch)
- Make sure your sponge is 100% clean (grit in the sponge may – you guessed it – scratch the paint)
- Wash the car from the roof down.
- Use a different sponge to wash the grittiest parts of the car – the tires.
- Don’t let the car air dry when done--use a soft towel to dry.

- Waxing a car provides a shine and some protection for the paint. Consumer Reports found that paste waxes are easier to use than liquid waxes; liquid waxes cleaned the best; and spray waxes were easiest to use and left the fewest stains on plastic parts, but they didn’t last as long as other waxes.
- A wax finish will last about five weeks.

Maintenance checks

- Check your windshield wipers for wear and tear from winter ice. Replace if they are leaving streaks of water.
- Check the treads of your tires for wear and check for proper inflation/

Bottom Line

For more on maintaining your car inside and out, see the Consumer Report guide to car maintenance.

The return of 72-hour kits

"By failing to prepare you are preparing to fail."- Ben Franklin

I received a comment on my 72-hr kit posting two days ago. Thank you! It's great to know there are readers out there.

While I think there is more agreement than disagreement in the comment, it's also apparent that my main point was not clear enough.

I'm completely in favor of stocking up and preparing supplies for emergencies at home, in your car, and at home. My concern is that the concept of a "72-hr kit" is an oversimplification to preparedness that misleads the average person into thinking they are prepared when they are not. Even the name is bad as emergency home supplies need to last more than 72 hours.

My objections reflect the common person who buys or makes a simple kit, loses track of it in the basement for years, and THINKS they are prepared. It's treated like a lucky rabbit's foot for protection. "I own one, therefore I'm safe." But when push comes to shove the 72-hr kit is not used, unusable or inadequate. Real disaster kits must be customized to personal needs and available at all times and resupplied.

I can't even say a 72-hr kit is "better than nothing" because it may amount to nothing when needed (not found or expired). It can give a false sense of security. It's like having a smoke alarm, never changing the batteries, and then leaving candles lit everywhere because the alarm will keep you safe.

When I wrote my first post, my wife & I had just met with local church leaders whose primary idea of preparedness was to make sure everyone had a 72-hr kit. At the same time they admitted they had lost track of and never refreshed the kits made at church years previous for their families. Another admitted that the amount of food in his kit (as specified by the official kit list) would never last him 3 days. There was much less interest in skill training - the kit would suffice for the welfare and protection of members.

Bottom Line

72-hour kits are only a first step towards preparedness, not the end of the journey. For kits to be useful I again recommend:

1. "72-hour" kits are for the car and office (not the home). I can only think of one use at home - when you have to shelter in place inside one room for gas/bio attack or tornado. If that room is your supply depot - all's well. If not, grab a kit from your car.

2. Customize your kits for your appetites and needs like medicines and diapers.

3. Include copies of important documents in the kit. Include some money.

4. Stock your home with 3 months of food, water and first aid supplies. A "72-hr" kit is for when you are stranded away from home base. It should not be your primary supplies.

5. Supplies must be backed up with skills. I own a chainsaw but fear to use it. It's dangerous and I'm not skilled in its use.

72-hour kits

“Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong, these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.”-Churchill, Winston

I’ve come to the conclusion that 72-hour kits are a bad idea. There are many reasons for this.

1. It promotes the idea that safety can be easily purchased. “I’ve bought (or made) a kit so now I’m prepared.” Real preparedness requires skills, planning and practice drills.

2. Kits are easily set aside and forgotten. “I’ve have six 72-hour kits somewhere in the basement for my family”

3. They are left behind when needed. “Honey, grab the kids”. Whoever says, “Honey, the grab the 72-hours kits”, as they flee a burning house”

4. You won’t have them when you need them – stranded in your car or at the office.

5. They are typically inadequate. No water, no cash, no toilet paper, no ID/financial records/insurance/etc to aid recovery.

6. Kits don’t get used and the contents (food, batteries) expire.

7. They don’t last 72-hours. “You mean this is all the food I get for 3 days? I could eat this in one sitting!”

8. Your kit needs to last for more than 72-hours. Since Katrina, FEMA and the American Red Cross now recommend a week of supplies.

So what should you do instead?

1. Maintain a well stocked home with a week of canned food that won’t require electricity to cook. Keep a week’s worth of water in storage for the entire family. Use and rotate these supplies.

2. Create useful first aid kits for your home, each car and office.

3. Make copies of important documents and store these outside the home.

4. Hide some cash outside the home for emergencies. Not your life savings but say $100 to tide things over until you have access to a bank again. Suppose you flee your burning house in your underwear – you’ll have no ID or ATM card to acquire cash! And you'll have no car keys.

5. Stock your cars with supplies suitable to the season – lots of water in summer, gloves & blankets in the winter.

6. Have comfort supplies at your office should you have to sleep there. Include a pair of old walking shoes if you evacuate and the roads/trains are shut down.

Bottom Line

Yes my six steps take more work and effort. But they will be more effective than a “kit” in a bag or can that is lost in the back of a closet somewhere.

A kit for all occasions

“Failing to plan is planning to fail”

My wife and I are reconsidering the value of the traditional 72-hour kit. The problem is that they so rarely get used and the contents are wasted or forgotten or out-of-date. In case of fire will you remember to grab your kit and will you be able to access it?

Instead we favor a decentralized collection of emergency stashes.

• A well stocked home with First Aid supplies, food storage for at least three months, at least one week of water, and an alternative fuel for warmth in winter.


• A mini-kit for your purse or briefcase or backpack that you regularly carry. This should include some aspirin, Band-Aids, cell phone, emergency cash and flash drive with copies of all your important documents. I’d also include a power bar and bottled water.


• A go-kit for your car. The contents may be quite similar to a 72-hour kit (or this could be your 72-hour kit). You’re most likely to need the contents of a kit when away from home. Or if you’re fleeing home, the kit is already in the car.


• If you have a go-kit in your car and the mini-kit in a briefcase you won’t need anything extra for the office. But if you’re a train commuter, consider storing extra supplies kept at the office – like good walking shoes. During 9-11 a lot of people were forced to walk in uncomfortable dress shoes. The office is also a good back-up location for important photos and personal documents.


• A remote stash. If a hurricane or terrorist attack disables one or more states, you and your office will likely both be in the danger zone. Have a friend or family member keep an emergency packet for you containing photos, documents, and anything else you want to ensure is never lost.

Bottom Line

In mid-December 2000 people were stranded for up to 16 hours inside the Chunnel when the Eurostar train broke down. The train broke down again Jan 6. The riders were trapped in a dark, 24-mile long tunnel with no food, no water, and little help. It is cases like this were your go-kit at home or in the car won’t help you and when your really, really want it. Hence a mini-kit of power bar, water and other basics that you carry with you always.

Get Out Of Dodge

“The evacuation of major cities - we have a problem with that. We've never done that before.” ~ Henry Renteria, Director of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services

About a year ago I wrote about the acronym TEOTWAWKI. Just this morning I came across another acronym G.O.O.D. that ties nicely into an article at NewScientist.com, Asteroid attack: Putting Earth's defences to the test. GOOD stands for “Get Out Of Dodge” and refers to emergency evacuation planning. When a hurricane is bearing down or an asteroid is about to strike your town, you won’t be the only one trying to escape. I recommend the movie, Deep Impact, which has a scene near the end of a crowded highway, no one’s moving, the asteroid is coming, so naturally people start panicking and driving on the grass, getting into accidents and getting into fights. Every man for himself!

The best solution to GOOD is getting out quickly, before the rest of the public jams the roads. If your go-kits are packed and ready you can get a head start on the crowd. Do not delay. Do not think you can escape “last minute”. You might also want to fill a gas can immediately because stations along the escape routes will quickly sell out.

When evacuating millions of people, I suspect every option is a lose-lose scenario. The highways will jam. Secondary roads can become closed with a single accident. If you have an AWD vehicle you could try off-road driving but have to cope with fences, ditches, streams, etc. In all cases a GPS unit can help provide alternative routes if you get stuck.

Bottom Line

Because of the hazards of evacuation, sheltering at home is often a better choice if you’re well stocked and prepared. But sometimes (killer hurricane or asteroid) you must get out of town, no choice. What will you do?

Four Stories of Survival

“One of the true tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency.” Arnold H. Glasgow

Over the past year Popular Mechanics has been a great source for disaster preparedness stories. For example, 4 People Who Faced Disaster—And How They Made it Out Alive. The article is worth reading in depth – I’ll summerize it here.

Prepare for the Worst:

a former Hewlett-Packard engineer saves his house from a California fire. “The last thing I want from my story is for people to risk their lives,” Vaplon says. “But I’d thought about protecting my home, and I felt comfortable with my decision to stay.” He was well prepared.

Keep Cool in a Crisis:

In a disaster, 10% of the people panic and 80% do nothing. But when a tornado in Iowa hit a shelter with 65 Boy Scouts, the Scout Leader went into autopilot rescue mode. “I don’t know how to describe it,” he says. “It was like my brain went away, and I went to a very businesslike place.” Though injured himself, he directed the able-bodied Scouts to take care of the injured, applying pressure to wounds, turning T-shirts into bandages and elevating the legs of those who were in shock. His leadership saved many lives.

Hang in There:

An overnight sky-watching trip in Washington state, becomes a nightmare when an unexpected autumn snowstorm leaves Daryl Jané stuck for 14 days until he was found by a local snowmobile club. John Leach, a survival psychologist says, “people in his situation die all the time, but they don’t have to ... He didn’t have food, but that’s not a problem for two weeks—you can live without it. (Jané lost 10 pounds.) Fluid is the issue, but he found water.” Don’t give up.

Outlast the Aftermath:

When Hurricane Ike hit Texas last year, 48 people died. But, according to the National Hurricane Center, as many as 64 post-storm deaths occurred in Texas because of factors like carbon monoxide poisoning and electrocution. The first weekend after Ike, some 37,000 Texans were holed up in shelters that ran short of food and water within 24 hours. The next few weeks brought countless scores of injuries from clearing debris. Lesson learned? Work with your neighbors and know how to safely live in a disaster area.

Bottom Line

Popular Mechanics correctly identifies four key principals to survival:

1. Be prepared in advance with supplies, equipment and skills
2. Keep calm. This comes from practice and a knowledge that you are prepared.
3. Make a plan to survive and don’t give up.
4. Be prepared for a long haul. The aftermath can be worse than the disaster event.