Winter Watch or Warning? What's the Difference?

“The snow was endless, a heavy blanket on the outdoors; it had a way about it. A beauty. But I knew that, like many things, beauty could be deceiving.”
― Cambria Hebert, Whiteout

I can never keep the weather warning terms straight. Which is worse, a watch or a warning? Here's what you need to know, listed in order of increasing severity:

• Winter weather advisory: expect winter weather conditions to cause inconvenience and hazards.
• Frost/freeze warning: expect below-freezing temperatures.
• Winter storm watch: be alert; a storm is likely.
• Winter storm warning: take action; the storm is in or entering the area.
• Blizzard warning: seek refuge immediately! Snow and strong winds, near-zero visibility, deep snow drifts, and life-threatening wind chill.

Bottom Line

The CDC has put together some excellent booklets for winter preparedness.

See Winterindoor safety: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/duringstorm/indoorsafety.asp
And Winter Checklist: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/beforestorm/supplylists.asp

How long does it take to get Frostbite?

How long does it take to get frostbite? Sounds like an easy question but I find many different answers on the Internet (including one tough old New Englander who answers, "never", with proper clothing). Part of the confusion lies in the definition of "Wind Chill". See http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2010/01/wind-chill.html for details. There have been two changes.

1st:  In Nov. 2001 the wind chill values were changed based upon a new equations, see http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/?n=windchill. Whereas 15°F used to be extreme cold in 20mph wind, now it's "safe" at all wind speeds and never drops below -11 wind chill.

2nd: Some revised charts appear to use the new wind chill values but kept the color bands the same for exposure times. See this NOAA chart from 2010 which still has 15°F freezing within 5 minutes with strong wind. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//global/chill.htm

A new NOAA chart from 2011 (pictured above) updates the color zones. http://antarcticfudgesicles.wordpress.com/afsa-student-page/how-long-does-it-take-to-get-frostbite/ The exposure time colors don't exactly match the wind chill numbers anymore (for instance -40 wind chill is in two different color zones).
Wind chill of -20°F to -35°F (approx) Frostbite in 30 minutes for exposed face, at night.
Wind chill of -35°F to -50°F (approx) Frostbite in 10 minutes.

There used to be a -30-30-30 rule that -30°F with a 30 mph wind could freeze skin solid in 30 seconds. Under the new chart it's -30 & 30mph & 5 minutes for frostbite.

Bottom Line
So what happened to the NOAA charts? During the fall of 2000, the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) organized a joint U.S.–Canadian government-sponsored action group to develop, test and implement a new Wind Chill Temperature Index. Human trials were done in Toronto, Canada with 12 volunteers in chilled wind tunnels with thermal transducers stuck to their face while walking on a 3mph treadmill. Brrrrr.

So the new chart is based on solid human evidence of facial skin instead of mathematical modes and time to freeze bottles of water.  See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/windchill/images/wind-chill-brochure.pdf for more information.

Staying warm when the heat is out

Winter is not a season, it's an occupation.
~Sinclair Lewis

Here are some ideas for staying warm when your house/apt. heat is not working:

Dress warmly! Wear a hat and socks indoors and even in bed! Dress in many layers from head to fingers to toes. Put on a winter coat or make your own by stuffing your clothing with crumbled up newspapers, paper towels or other insulating materials.

Snuggle and share body heat with family and pets.

Heat rises so stay upstairs.
Plug any air gaps around windows and doors.

Close doors to unused rooms. This will reduce drafts and retain what little heat your bodies give off.

Cover floors with a carpet or blanket.

Vigorous exercise warms the body and moves heat to fingers and toes.

When sitting still wrap yourself in a blanket or thick bathrobe.

Bottom Line

Know your limits to avoid frost bite and hypothermia! Sometimes the best thing to do is leave a cold house and find a shelter with heat.

Most fireplaces do a poor job of heating a room. NEVER leave a fire unattended or burning while you sleep and do not dispose of fireplace ashes near your house. Space heaters and candles are a fire risk when used near flammable items. Gas powered heaters are also a carbon monoxide risk when there is no ventilation.

NEVER use a power generator indoors. While TV news emphasizes tornados, hurricanes and earthquakes, the real killers in nature are heat and cold. Globally there are more deaths from extreme cold than from extreme storms. Freezing to death is very real, especially for senior citizens and infants. Freezing cold can also inspire desperate measures to stay warm which lead to death by house fire or carbon monoxide poisoning.

When is it too cold to stay home?

How low can you go?

- lyrics to "Limbo Rock"

I was asked yesterday, "If a house is without heat, at what temperature does it become unsafe to stay?" Or to put it another way, "At what temperature should one evacuate a home?"

I've searched the Internet and found nothing useful so I'm hoping that some reader can provide an answer. One site said that temperatures below 70 F can be dangerous (to the elderly perhaps???) if no protection is taken (like a sweater?). That seems way too extreme. At my home in winter, I'm lucky if I can convince the wife to set the thermostat up to 63 F. It's often 60 by day and 55 at night. For me 63 F is tolerable with layered clothing but below that my fingers become chilled.

When we lost power with the Halloween Nor'Easter we put on coats and hats and did OK for awhile as the temperature fell over several days. At 40 F we were becoming concerned but then the power was restored.

A site on wind chill said that -20 F was "dangerous". It may be true that even brief exposure to -20 F is dangerous but what about prolonged exposure? Someplace else warned about 30 F and below.  At that temperature you must to take active precautions to prevent your extremities from freezing with frostbite but it is survivable. When I attended an igloo making class the instructor warned against overheating the inside of the igloo. If the temperature got above 32 F the igloo would melt from the inside-out. So igloo dwellers must cope with the 30-32 F range.

Bottom Line

There might not be one simple answer. Temperature tolerance does depend on age and health and body fat. Still it would be nice to know how low is safe?

Treating Frostbite

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
-White Christmas by Irving Berlin

While we may have wished for a White Christmas, too much exposure to cold and snow can be dangerous. Your body is 60% water and the water in your skin can freeze to ice. This is called frostbite.

Think about water in a ice cube tray. When it freezes, the ice cubes are larger than the water poured in. (The expansion of ice is why ice floats in water.) When ice crystals form in skin or muscle cells the ice expansion and sharp icy prongs bursts the cells and kills them. If the damage is small, it may be painful, but recoverable. However extensive freezing and cell death may result in gangrene and the loss of fingers, toes, ears, nose, etc.

Frostbite usually develops below -12°C (10°F), but may occur at a temperatures near freezing (0°C/32°F) when high winds and/or dampness chills the body faster than your blood can keep it warm. Hands, feet, noses, and ears are the most likely body parts to be affected.

Avoid frostbite by staying out of extreme cold. If you must go out (or become lost, stranded in extreme cold) cover all extremities - winter boots for the feet, gloves for the hands, a hat or earmuffs for the the ears and a mask or scarf for the face. Mittens are more effective than gloves for warming your hands since the fingers can share body heat instead of isolated on their own. Avoid caffeinated beverages (like coffee) as they constrict blood vessels and prevent warming of your extremities. Alcohol should also be avoided since it reduces shivering, which is one way of keeping warm. Cigarette smokers may be at higer risk with reduced blood flow to hands and feet.

Wiggle your fingers and toes frequently to increase blood flow to these areas. Keep your feet and hands dry. If you begin to loose feeling in your fingers and toes, or they begin to tingle, or feel painful, go inside and warm up.

Signs and symptoms of frostbite include:

• A "pins and needles" sensation, followed by numbness
• Hard, pale, cold skin

Different Degrees of Frostbite

• First degree: ice crystals forming on top of your skin
• Second degree: your skin begins to feel warm, even though it is not yet defrosted.
• Third degree: your skin turns red, pale, or white.
• Fourth degree: pain lasts for more than a few hours, and you may see dark blue or black areas under the skin. See a doctor immediately if these symptoms arise. Gangrene is a real threat.

Bottom Line

If your skin is blue or gray, very swollen, blistered, or feels hard and numb even under the surface, go to a hospital immediately.  Otherwise get indoors or to a warm shelter ASAP. Take off any constricting jewelry (flesh may expand and rings are sometimes cut off a swollen finger). Take off wet clothing. Never rub or massage frostbitten skin, but do use your armpits or the body heat of a warm companion.

If possible, immerse the affected area of your body in warm -- NOT HOT -- water, or apply warm cloths to affected areas of your ears, nose, or cheeks for 20-30 minutes. Try to move the area of your body that is affected as little as possible to decrease doing additional damage.

You should not use hot water or a heating pad, heat lamp, hair dryer, or the heat from a stove, fireplace, or radiator to warm yourself. This because your frostbitten area may be numb and you won't be able to feel if you're overdoing the heat and burning yourself.

As you warm up your frostbitten skin will become red and swollen, and you'll feel like it's on fire. You may develop blisters. Don't break the blisters. It could cause scarring.

Without power for over a week

"That's the night the lights went out in Georgia"
-lyrics in song of the same name

The day before Halloween, a freak snowstorm dump inches of wet heavy snow on New York, New Jersery, and New England states. Because the trees still had leaves attached, hundreds of thousands of braches became too heavy and broke. Now this does not sound like a big deal, certainly not as flashy a disaster as a hurricane or earthquake, and yet the consequences have been extreme. The Halloween nor'easter knocked out power to over 3 million homes. Connecticut was hit especially hard and over 100,000 residents of Connecticut are without power a week after the storm and they are NOT happy about it.  See Tempers flare over 6 days of Conn. power outages written on Nov 4.

“Angry residents left without heat as temperatures drop to near freezing overnight have been lashing out at Connecticut Light & Power: accosting repair crews, making profane criticisms online and suing. In Simsbury, a hard-hit suburban town of about 25,000 residents, National Guard troops deployed to clear debris have been providing security outside a utility office building.”

Abusing the work crews is a VERY bad idea. Some of these repairmen have left their familes in mid-west states to work here around the clock.  (A loose wire at our house was fixed at 3:30 in the morning.)

What went wrong? One reader of Instapundit, surmises,

Not sure what goes wrong, but it sounds like greed in not wanting to hire enough workers, failure to pay out of state crews that came up to help with Irene, incompetence, and poor character.

It's possible that Connecticut Light & Power (CL&P) underestimated the massive scope of the damage and was slow to mobilize outside help. Regional disasters like this are particuallarly hard to solve because you cannot just call in workmen from neighboring states. Instead those states are desparate for extra repairmen also and everyone is competing for workers from outside the disaster area. And this is a repeat from just months ago during "hurricane" Irene so "favors" used up, emergency funds spent, emergency workers burnt out.

Bottom Line

It's events like this that show why you must be able to take care of yourself and your family. Can you supply your own heat, light and food for two weeks? If not, why not?

Head Cold

“Envy is as persistent as memory, as intractable as a head cold.”-Harry Stein

I’ve had a CPAP machine for sleep apnea for two weeks now and am experiencing my first head cold with the machine. The congestion quickly went into my ear canals and I’m hoping it won’t develop into a full scale sinus infection.

Opinion on the internet is mixed regarding CPAP and head colds. The American Sleep Apnea Association says CPAP should be discontinued during a sinus infection. But how does one know when the line is crossed from normal congestion to sinus infection? Some apnea patients stop using the machine during colds but admit that their sleep suffers and lack of sleep weakens the body that needs to heal. Others switch to a full face mask just for colds and crank up the humidifier on the machine to loosen up the mucus. For some this works miracles.

I slept without the machine last night - my wife noticed the snoring had returned. I think I’ll try the full mask tonight if my ears feel less blocked by then.

Bottom Line

The National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has a list to help distinguish a common cold, from the flu and from a sinus infection…

Cold Symptoms
Slow onset.
No prostration.
Fever Headache is rare.
Runny nose, Sneezing.
Mild Fatigue.
Cough, chest discomfort.
Sore Throat.

Flu Symptoms
Swift, severe onset.
Prominent Prostration.
Flushed, hot moist skin.
102-104 degree temp.
Chills, body aches.
Extreme fatigue,
can last 2-3 weeks.
Cough, sore throat.

Sinus Infection Symptoms
Facial pains.
Tenderness of the sinus areas.
Headaches.
Nasal drainage that is thick and colored.
Cough (may be itchy).
Postnasal drip.
Bad breath.
Upper jaw pain.
Sore throat.
Eyes are sensitive to light.
General fatigue.
Eye lids swell.

Resources:
http://www.sleepapnea.org/resources/pubs/wrong.html
http://www.seanet.com/~raines/compendium.html

Wind Chill

"I've got to go home - Oh, baby, you'll freeze out there
Say, lend me your coat - It's up to your knees out there"
- song lyrics from Baby It's Cold Outside

Slate.com recently published an article, "It's time to get rid of a meaningless number", that is opposed to the idea of "Wind Chill factor". The columnist believes that "no amount of tweaking will make wind chill more comprehensible."

Let's start at the beginning. In 1945 two Antarctic explorers, Paul Siple and Charles Passel, realized that a bottle of water would freeze faster on a windy day than on a calm day. This is because the wind is more efficient at carrying away the heat in the water. They carefully recorded wind speed and freezing times to create a chart and formula uniting wind and temperature. So given 5 F and a wind speed of X, you could calculate that a bottle would freeze in the same amount of time as a calm day of -40 F.

The concept of wind chill was first used by Canadian Weather men in the 1970s. The Siple-Passel formula was used for 30 years before two researchers, Randall Osczevski in Canada and Maurice Bluestein in the United States, decided to retest the numbers. They found that the Siple-Passel formula was too extreme in its predictions. So instead of -40F above the same 5F and wind would feel more like -19F.

So this is confusion #1 - the system of wind chill was changed at the turn of the century.

Confusion #2 - If it's a windy day at 35F, the wind chill might "feel like" 20F but no bottle of water (or anything else) is going to freeze. The coldest anything can get in this example is 35F - safely above freezing. All wind chill does is tell you how quickly you'll cool down to the outdoor temperature - not how cold you will become. Wind does not make things colder than the air temperature - it just makes them as cold, faster.

Confusion #3 - Your results may vary. The actual rate at which your body cools will depend upon the clouds & sun, how much skin you have exposed, how insulating your coat is, how exposed you are to the wind, and so on. The modern Wind Chill model is based upon people who are 5 feet tall, somewhat portly, and walk at an even clip directly into the wind.

Bottom Line

Wind Chill is useful as a reminder about the dangers of a cold wind but keep in mind the limitations mentioned above. Also remember that wet clothes draw out heat and will cool you down faster than dry clothes. Stay dry and out of the wind.

Check out one of my early blogs for more details on Hypothermia.

Winterize your House

“Winter is the season in which people try to keep the house as warm as it was in the summer, when they complained about the heat” - anon

Kiplinger.com had published Your Fall Home-Maintenance To-Do List with 9 ways to winterize your home:

9. Have your lawn-irrigation system professionally drained.

8. Trim landscaping.

7. Turn off exterior faucets.

6. Add extensions to downspouts so water runs at least 3 to 4 feet away from the foundation.

5. Clean the gutters.

4. Caulk around windows and doors.

3. Make necessary roof repairs.

2. Buy a programmable thermostat.

1. Tune up your heating system.

Bottom Line

Forecasters are predicting an extra cold winter in the North East due to a weak El Nino. Prepare now!

Wearing Wool

I got up one morning and couldn't find my socks, so I called Information and said, "I can't find my socks." She said, "They're behind the couch." And they were! - Stephen Wright

According to Wear Wool For Survival, humans have been using wool since about 10,000 B.C. Ancient Greeks lined their helmets with felt, and Roman legionnaires used breastplates made of wool felt. It is great for survival wear because it retains body heat when wet. (Most fabrics suck the warmth out of a person when they get wet from rain, snow or sweat.) Wool also has breathability, water resistance, odor-resistance, fire-resistance, durability, elasticity, crease-resistance, and UV-light resistance. Wool has been used as insulation in timber-frame buildings and for making rope. It insulates better than fiberglass and is naturally flame retardant. Wool can make excellent diapers with the ability to absorb moisture almost one-third of its own weight.

One drawback to wool is scratchiness. I have a pair of warm woolen socks that I hate to wear – too itchy! Soft wool does exist but you’ll have to spend extra for higher quality. The finest and softest wool is said to come from Merino sheep. They were originally bred in Spain but now Australian raises 80% of all Merinos. They can also be found in New Zealand, Argentina, South Africa, and the Western US.

Another drawback to wool is that woolen items can lose shape or shrink many sizes when washed. Here are some recommendations from wikiHow on How to Wash Wool:

• Don’t wash! Wool is odor resistant and can last a long time with only spot washing by hand for stains and a good airing out.
• To prevent shrinking, soak wool in cold water for a few hours before washing so all the woolen fibers become saturated.
• Use only a cleaner designed for washing wool. Strong detergent and soap in large quantity can harm wool.
• Heat and agitation are the enemies of wool. So never use the dryer – instead gently roll the item to squeeze out water and let it dry flat in the shape you want.
• The agitation of a washing machine can also be harmful. A good soak in water (or mild soap) and rinse is often sufficient.

Bottom Line
Wool is a great fabric for go-kits, hikes, and survival conditions. However make sure you are comfortable wearing it. You don’t want the distraction and annoyance of scratchy clothes when trying to cope with the stress of a disaster.

No Power on Cold Winter Nights

“Three feet of ice does not result from one day of cold weather.” - Chinese Proverb

I really like the story, Ice storm tests mettle of Harvard residents by the Harvard Press. It goes into details about how families survived in mid-winter with 4+ days without power.

Sleeping arrangements were dictated by the location of a fireplace in the master bedroom. The whole family could fall asleep while that room was still warm, alongside their cats and a pair of birds. ... the room dipped to about 42 degrees on the coldest night.

Even the four cats slept under the bed covers.

The group showed ingenuity at mealtime too, boiling water in a sterno-powered fondue pot and powering the coffee grinder from the car adaptor. Ten-year-old Julia LeBlanc used her Girl Scout training and some aluminum foil to grill ham-and-cheese sandwiches in the fire, though she found that bagels tended to burn. Their frozen food was saved by the next-door neighbors, whose home had some power from a powerful generator. To power their plumbing, the LeBlanc family tapped the five-gallon drums of water that Peter had stashed in his basement some three years ago for just such emergencies. A healthy supply of firewood kept the fireplaces burning, and Peter LeBlanc even took the time to rent a log-splitter and share it with his neighbors.

Bottom Line

If you're prepared, a winter crisis can be a time of family bonding and adventure instead of hardship and suffering. “We’ve done very well!” said Elizabeth LeBlanc.

Hypothermia

"Never such a blizzard before"
- from the song Baby it's cold outside

Hypothermia describes the rapid, progressive mental and physical collapse caused by the chilling of the inner core of the human body. It is the number one killer of outdoor recreationalists who simply can't believe that temperatures between 30 and 50 degrees can be dangerous. When dry and covered you might survive 30 degree air. But swimming in 50 degree water can be deadly and when your clothes are wet in fifty degrees air, the cold water running down your neck and legs quickly robs body heat. A blowing wind will go through and under wet clothes, evaporating water on your skin, causing a refrigeration effect.

I'm quite impressed by the site http://www.adventuresportsonline.com/skihypo.htm which provided the hypothermia information above. It also charts comparing water temperature to survival times, signs of hypothermia, what to do, and more.

From eMedicineHealth I learned that Hypothermia has been a military problem ever since Hannibal lost nearly half of his troops while crossing the Pyrenees Alps in 218 B.C. It has continued to plague military campaigns through both world wars and the Korean War.

Bottom Line

Uncontrollable or violent shivering is a warning sign of early stage hypothermia. Shivering can double heat generation for a few hours. But eventually fatigue sets in, and the body exhausts its fuel stores. As your core body temperature drops, cold reaches the brain depriving you of good judgement and reasoning power. You will not realize this is happening. You will lose control of your hands, then your body, and eventually die.

Seek help immediately while you still have the energy, the muscle coordination, and the common sense to reach help. However if you're lost don't wander at random hoping to be rescued; seek shelter instead. Once sheltered, take off wet clothes and replace with dry if available. Refuel your body with food and water. Do NOT consume alcohol, caffeine or tobacco. Build a fire. Get inside a sleeping bag if available. If you're not alone, huddle with others to share body heat.

For more details see also the Outdoor Action Guide.

Rule of Threes

The first step in emergency preparedness is knowing where to start. What is most important?
Fortunately this is answered by the Survival Rule of Threes:

An average person can survive:

3 minutes without air

3 hours without shelter in harsh conditions of cold or heat

3 days without water

3 weeks without food

This is best illustrated by a story. A friend of a friend died in his car during a blizzard. He had pulled over to the side to avoid being hit or causing an accident and kept the car running to keep warm. However the snow piled up and buried the exhaust pipe causing the car to fill with Carbon Monoxide fumes - a silent killer. This person forgot that fresh air trumps heat for survival. This is also one of the reasons you see warnings not to use cooking stoves inside a tent.

A second example: if you're lost in the wilderness with dry food but no water - don't eat the food! Digesting food uses up moisture inside the body. It is better to go hungry than to become dehydrated.

Here are two other sites discussing the Rule of Threes:
Outdoor Skills
Survival Topics