Comsumer Psychology

Here are a few more items from the Atlantic's The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math.

You can be influenced (we do what we're told):
When a restaurant highlights an item with a photo or outlined in a box or printed in bold, you can bet that the item is good for the restaurant's profit line. It may be a fine item but be aware of the subtle influence and make up your own mind.

It's not Fair!
There's a classic experiment that demonstrated that people are not the rational actors that Economists thought they were. Person A is shown $10. He/She must decide how much to share with person B in a take-it-or-leave-it deal. If Person B nixes the deal, no one gets any money; A and B get nothing unless B is pleased with the deal.
Under a rational model B should agree to any amount greater than zero. A free penny is still a free penny and B is ahead. But that is not what happened. Instead most B's voted with their feelings and vetoed the deal if they felt it was not a fair split like 50-50.

Our minds do funny things when it comes to fair value.

In another experiment a person was told, you have a ticket for a play worth $20 and a $20 bill in your pocket. When you arrive at the play you find the ticket is missing. Do you buy another ticket?  Many people said no. I guess they felt they had paid once and refused to pay again or didn't want to throw good money after bad? 
In a second experiments the subjects are told they have two $20's. When they arrive at a play they want to see, they find one of the 20's is missing. Would they still spend the remaining $20 to buy a ticket? Most people said yes. They felt that the missing $20 had nothing to do with the decision to buy a ticket or not. There was no correlation. And yet, financially the two test cases are exactly the same. An item worth $20 was lost.

The Atlantic tells this story,

[Economist Dan] Ariely pretended he was giving a poetry recital. He told one group of students that the tickets cost money and another group that they would be paid to attend. Then he revealed to both groups that the recital was free. The first group was anxious to attend, believing they were getting something of value for free. The second group mostly declined, believing they were being forced to volunteer for the same event without compensation.

It's all a matter of perception.

Item's with 9's sell better. We may think $19.99 is a silly price but our mind locks onto the first digit '1' and we know in our gut that '1' is less than the '2' in $20.00.

"In the number 9, the bargain-hunter/discount-gatherer corner of our brain spots a pluckable deal."

Rebates and Warranties are money makers for business

"The first buys the illusion of wealth ("I'm being paid money to spend money!"). The second buys peace of mind ("Now I can own this thing forever without worrying about it!"). Both are basically tricks."

Business is counting on you to forget to submit the rebate form or to forget to follow-up if the rebate never arrives. As for Warranties, they are rarely collected upon so it's just extra money for the company for doing nothing.

Lessons From The Colorado Wildfires

SurvivalBlog.com has printed several stories from people affected by the Colorado forrest fires last month. For example, here's a great personal account that I'll summarize, http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/06/letter-re-lessons-from-the-colorado-wildfires.html

My house is (was?) within about five miles of the starting point of the fire.  ... I got my pile of "definitely going with me" stuff by the garage door on Saturday night.  ...  

Lesson #1 - partly organized isn't ready for full-scale, fast evac. To do that, I'd have needed duplicate things already packed and ready to go. For example, duplicate toiletries so you have the set you use and the set that's ready to go. ...

 

I was away from home last evening as the fire raged on. On my way home, ...  It was a traffic fiasco.  ... the police blockades and gawkers stopped by the side of the road made it much more difficult than anticipated.  ...

Lesson #2: During a large scale evacuation, expect traffic to be a mess no matter which direction you're [going].  ...

Lesson #3: Since some things can't easily (or affordably) be duplicated, make sure they can be evacuated quickly.  [like computers]

 

...

Now I had to figure out one of my biggest challenges - surprisingly so: How to move both packed cars with cats and dog and the most valuable things in my life in them!  ...

 

Lesson #4: Having one person and two cars and no backup doesn't work all that well in evac mode. ...

Lesson #5: The process of evacuation is a process of "letting go". Specifically saying, "I can live without that." Knowing in a very black and white way, that you may literally NEVER SEE IT AGAIN.   

... as I drove to the retreat, I heard the mandatory evacuation notice for my area on the radio. I still had to hope the police would let me back in to get the other car.

Lesson #6: The media is both good and bad in this situation. The bad: mostly, they repeat the same information over and over - obtained from the press briefings at 8 am and 4 pm. Not very helpful. 

Lesson #[7]: The last lesson came when I started getting ready for bed and this morning. I hadn't brought everything I really wanted! For example, I forgot to get my razor from the shower into my toiletries bag. And a pair of shorts for sleeping in. Oh, and I snagged a fingernail in moving stuff and didn't bring my fingernail clippers. I know, all small stuff, but it's a bummer to not have it when putting aside extras would have been so easy.

And now I get wait and wonder if I'll ever move back into my house. And even the television news can't tell me that...

Cola Wars

Billy Joel's song, We Didn't Start the Fire, serves as an excellent history test - how many of the events in the song do you know? It ends with this line, "Rock and Roll and Cola Wars: I Can't Take it Any More."  Cola Wars??? After singing about the H-bomb, drugs, etc, he ends with Cola Wars?

Well this is one long war between Coke and Pepsi that you can not escape seeing on TV, radio, movie theaters, etc. Recently I heard an ad for Pepsi that set my teeth on edge, "Live for Now".  Really?! That's the message for "a new generation?"  "What are you waiting for?", asks the Pepsi website, "Live for Now".

Besides being a dumb slogan, (why should living for immediate gratification mean drinking Pepsi?), it's also teaching a terrible lesson to today's youth. Failure to plan, failure to save money, failure to prepare, this is our new Pepsi Generation.

How to be more Creative

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."
-Thomas A. Edison

I find it difficult to be "creative". I enjoy "improving" upon something created by someone else but when faced with a blank canvas, I have no idea what to paint. With this blog it helps me to see an inspiring topic on the Internet which I can then research and comment upon. Once there's a topic, I can write pages on it.

Where do new ideas and new topics come from? The website MarcAndAngel has some ideas.

1. You need Knowledge. It's hard to be creative in a vacuum or in a state of ignorance. "most creative breakthroughs rest on the shoulders of everything that came before it."  Artists keep scrap books for ideas. Charles Darwin was stumped for years on what "caused" evolution; then while reading Malthus' work on Population and competition for resources, it dawned on him that "survival of the fittest" would explain why some animals prospered while others went extinct. Isaac Newton wrote that he could see further because he "stood on the shoulders of giants". Well today those giants would sue for unsanctioned (and unpaid) use of their ideas under Intellectual Property Rights laws.

2. You need Passion. "Enthusiasm is the lifeblood of creativity." It is hard to be creative when bored. Creativity takes time and lots of effort which you're more likely to do if it's for something you're passionate about.

3. Don't repeat the past. Build upon the past (topic #1) but don't be limited by it. "We must step outside of our comfort zone and attempt unfamiliar activities if we hope to achieve breakthroughs in our future." One graphic designer at TED.com said that he shuts down his company every 7 years for a year-long sabbatical. He lifts the company out of the rut it gets into by exposing everyone to new ideas and new experiences and a little fun that will inspire them for the next six years.

4. Don't fear failure. "If you hope to exercise your creativity, you must get over your fear of failure."
I hate editing my own work. I want it, expect it, to be perfect the first time I write it. There's no "passion" for me in deleting my own work. But quality work requires drafts, edits, complete rewrites, tossing out chapters, etc. With artists we remember the "perfect" paintings, like the Mona Lisa, and are unaware of the thousands of faces DaVinci sketched in his note books, and the many other portraits he did that are not remembered today. We forget that DaVinci was always experimenting and has some big failures (one majestic mural he did 'melted' when the new paint mixtures he used failed to set and dry properly)

5. Take a break. You won't be super creative when exhausted (though you might have a breakthrough while dreaming). Some of the biggest discoveries come from the subconscious when you take some time off from the problem.

6. Test your output on someone else. Isaac Newton kept his discoveries on gravity and planetary motion locked in a drawer for decades. He had no clue how rare his insight was until Kepler asked to see his results. On the other hand, some inventors think their invention or art is the best thing in the world and resist any feedback from friends before submitting it to the world as-is with flaws.

7. Don't fence me in. As an opposite to #6, don't let friends or critics tell you what you can NOT do. "They may suggest that your creative ideas are impractical and ridiculous because nobody really cares."  While constructive criticism is healthy, avoid negative criticism about what is impossible or unprofitable. They might be right but they might also be wrong and you'll be the one that shows the world something new.

Bottom Line

As Edison quipped in his famous quote, genius (e.g. invention, creativity) takes a lot perspiration. I'm amazed when I visit art museums around the world and keep seeing the "same" paintings. Just how many haystacks and water lilies did Matisse paint? How many bath scenes by Mary Cassatt? These artists did the same subject over and over again to practice their technique, to discover something new. They worked hard for the fame they achieved.

When to take a pay cut

"No success in public life can compensate for failure in the home."
-Benjamin Disraeli

There's a interesting article at Penelope Trunk Blog about the times in your life when it's OK to take a pay cut.

1. For emotional Independence. Yes you could make more with a large firm but you want to be your own boss and run your own business.
2. When changing careers. You're doing something new for you, why should you still get the big bucks.
3. When you're over 40 years old. Salary peaks at age 40! (that's a rude shock to learn). There are exceptions - lawyers, surgeons(?), and those who succeed in climbing the corporate ladder.
4. If unemployed for six months.  You'll most like need to take a pay cut to get hired again.
5. If changing jobs to be close to family. Relationships trump money.
6. If you get a great boss.
7. If you can not cope with the stress of not working.
8. If you need better insurance.

Bottom Line

Penelope has an excellent conclusion,

You are not your salary. You are not worth less in the world because you are paid less in your job. Get your self-worth from a wide range of things and a pay cut won't matter to you. Focus on the components of a good job: learning, personal growth, friends at work, and a good family life. All those things are worth a lot more than a pay cut.

Hidden Costs

"It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach".
~President Franklin Delano Roosevelt

10 Hidden Costs That Hurt Your Wallet from WiseBread.com

1. Over-Insuring Yourself
If you and your spouse both work, are you double covered for medical and life insurance? Are you buying personal life insurance and are also covered by insurance through your employer?

2. Hanging Around People Who Are Materialistic
It's hard to save money if you hang out with friends who are big spenders or eager shoppers. My wife shops with a friend who is always saying, "You have to try this," and so there is frequently an unplanned item or two purchased.

3. Buying in Bulk
First check the price - bigger doess not always give a cheaper unit cost. Second ask yourself if you can use or consume the bigger quantity before it goes bad. Warehouses sell giant cans of tuna which have a great price but is way too much food for my wife and I. We'd be wasting money if we toss out the uneaten tuna after a few days.

4. Eating Everything on Your Plate
Restaurants prices may be high but you get value with huge portions, right? Wrong. Few of us can resist eating more than we should which impacts our heath (and future medical bills.) And I'm amazed at how few people take leftovers homes. There's a lot of wasted food left behind.

5. Getting the Plan That Covers The Worst Case Scenario
Did you buy a cellphone plan with a huge number of minutes that you never use so you'll never go over the limit? You'ld be better off with a cheaper plan and pay the extra fee for the rare times that you go over limit.

6. Being Unreasonably Loyal
Don't let brand warranty trick you into paying too much. It could be cost-effective using newer, better, and cheaper alternatives.

7. Thinking that Limited Spending Will Help Stop the Urge to Spend More
Shopping can be addictive - it's hard to stop with just the one item you actually need versus the many items that you want. Distiguish your needs from your wants. 

8. Trying to Maximize Your Opportunities
Have you even seen a good deal but held back waiting for it to get even better? And then missing any deal at all when prices suddenly change?
"Sometimes it's better to take advantage as soon as a deal is worth the effort. ... it's not a question of whether you got the best deal, but how often you can find deals that benefit you."

9. Being Cheap

"There is a fine line between being cheap and living frugally. It's one thing to take advantage of corporations by using coupons for example, but it's completely different if you take advantage of your friends."

Cheap also has a hidden cost; cheap goods are lower quality and break sooner. You may pay more in the end by replacing cheap items multiple times.
.
10. Valuing Your Time Too Much
What is your time worth? Are you using your time effectively? Is it worth hiring a house painter so you have more time to watch TV?

Bottom Line

Living frugally is not simple. Many of the ideas above look good on the surface but have hidden costs or hidden wastage built end. You have to look at the big picture and your personal behaviors and lifestyle.

Seeing is Believing?

Squares A & B are the same color!

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

My posts for the next few days will be short as I'm working overtime at the office.

We like to think that we can trust our eyes. At a trial the most trusted testimony comes from an "eyewitness". But in reality our eyes are easily fooled.

Here is a 30-second video from New Scientist magazine called the expanding arc illusion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h91Aj9AGuA
You brain may know the two arcs are the same size but they sure don't look it.

This article, http://blog.asmartbear.com/color-wheels.html, talks about why color wheels "are wrong." For example, did you know there is no color in the rainbow or light spectrum that is Magenta. It's an invention of eye with how the human brain combines colors.

Bottom Line

Presently my wife and I are having the interior of the house painted. Getting paint chips to color match is not simple. What looks perfect in the store, won't match when viewed outdoors or in our living room. Colors are influenced by the light we see them in.

Likewise all perception is contextual. What is loud to a parent is not loud to a teenager. There are "Super-tasters" with more taste buds on their tongue who experience food differently. There are super sniffers who work for perfume companies. We are each unique in how we perceive the world.

What don't you know?

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"
-Charles Darwin

Yesterday I mentioned "Credentialed, Not Educated" to describe leaders at all levels of politics; people with little experience that have a very high opinion of their abilities and knowledge. Recently the Instapundit cited a reference to the Dunning-Kruger effect in the context of political hubris. I'd never heard of this so I looked it up.

Justin Kruger and David Dunning published a paper while at Cornell University entitled, "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".
They found while testing students, that those who scored poorly rated themselves as much more skilled than they really were. While those who tested well had self-doubts about their knowledge and rated themselves less skilled than actual.

Some people just don't know what is missing from their knowledge. This is not to say that they cannot learn; only that there are topics they have never-ever been exposed to and are completely unaware of. To use a physical example, many people are unaware that they have a vision problem. If you've always seen the world as blurry, then you think that this is natural and normal. You have no clue that others see the world sharper and in more focus. Then when you get your first pair of glasses, it's like, wow, I never knew things could look like this.

When a doctor asks me to rate a pain on a 1-10 pain scale, I'm flustered. What does 10 feel like? If I've never experienced it, how do I know that my present pain is only a 7? Is my level-10 pain the same as his? (As it turns out, no. I have a high pain threshold so I've been under rating myself on the pain scale.)

Returning to Kruger and Dunning, they proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they can be trained to substantially improve.

Many politicians get a degree in social science or politics or law, do some social work, and get elected. They have never managed a business, never really had a nine-to-five job in their life. Yet their self-confidence in their ability to fix the business world with new laws is stratospheric. They are blind to personal areas of ignorance.

Bottom Line

Poet W.B. Yeats captured the irony between those well informed & able (who do nothing) vs the uninformed & incompetent (who are militant),

"The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."

Staying Calm During an Emergency

Two hunters are out in the woods when one of them collapses. He doesn't seem to be breathing and his eyes are glazed. The other guy whips out his phone and calls 9-1-1. He gasps, "My friend is dead! What can I do?" The operator says "Calm down. I can help. First, let's make sure he's dead." There is a silence, and then a shot is heard. Back on the phone, the guy says, "OK, he’s dead. Now what?"

For the Readyman Webelos Activity, young boys are taught four ways to demonstrate “Courage” during an emergency. Be Strong, Be Calm, Be Clear, Be Careful. I’d like to focus on the importance of being Calm and Clear.

In June of 2009, a natural gas explosion blew the roof off of a ConAgra Food Plant during working hours. Here is one call made to 9-1-1.

"ConAgra just blew up," a caller said.
"ConAgra?" the responder asked.
"ConAgra. In Garner."
"What did it do ma'am?" the responder said. "What do you mean it blew up?"
"It blew up! Please send some help."

Notice how little “real” communication is going on here. When asked a question by the responder, the caller just repeats the same words back, “ConAgra”, “It blew up”. The event is vivid and clear in the mind of the caller to whom ConAgra is obvious and “it blew up” is self-evident. “Please send some help” gives no clue to the scope of the problem, is one EMT needed or a fleet of ambulances?

Callers forget that what is obvious to them may not be obvious to someone at a phone bank in another city. Being Calm and Clear means carefully providing details like “the ConAgra Food Plant #3 in Garner has suffered a huge explosion with dozens injured. We need dozens of ambulances and fire control for an industrial plant.”

Consider this call to 9-1-1 in Arizona in 2008,

"There's three dogs, but one is very aggressive, and the man is holding one, and there's kids over here, too."

How would you interpret this? The responder said she would contact Animal Control. 12 minutes later there is a second call, "We're still waiting for an officer. We've got injuries." Is the picture clear yet? The responder sent a reminder to Animal Control. Then a minute later, "Uh, there's a dogfight over here, and there's been a man bit. And I called about 15 minutes ago, and nobody's here yet." With this call, a different operator, and the magic words, a man’s been bit, medical personal (Fire Dept EMT) were finally mobilized. It turns out a pit bull wriggled out of its leash, lunged at a man with two small kids walking his beagle, bit his right forearm, and dragged him about 7 feet after his beagle barked at the pit bull. Could you have guessed any of this from the original call to 9-1-1?

Watch out for "buzz words" and technical jargon. In another emergency call there was confusion between an armed “robbery” and a “burglary”. Do you know the difference? A robbery is a crime happening now – immediate response is needed to rescue the victim and catch the robber. A burglary is after the fact, the robber is gone, and there is no need for police to hurry. The victim in a Dry Cleaning store armed robbery activated the silent alarm but the emergency dispatcher reported it as a 10-15, burglary just occurred. So the police did not use sirens, arrived slowly at the scene, to find a distressed victim asking, “What took you so long?”

Bottom Line

Be very clear on 9-1-1 to say what you need – police, fire, ambulance. Be clear on what is damaged and injuries and the number of people needing medical attention. Call back if you think 9-1-1 misunderstood or ask to speak with a supervisor.

Middle Age Weight

Inside some of us is a thin person struggling to get out, but they can usually be sedated with a few pieces of chocolate cake. ~Author Unknown

As a teenager I was skinny. In college my weight was stable although I ate a lot. But when middle age hit, it seems everything went to the waistline regardless of how carefully I ate. My appetite now is less than college - I can no longer eat half a pizza, BUT I'm still gaining weight with the lesser amount of food.

With every calorie sticking to my stomach, it becomes more important to choose wisely what I eat. My wife has a great expression that helps, "It's not worth the calories". For example, at work today someone left a plate of home baked cookies. I picked a small one and ate it slowly while making some herbal tea. Then I was tempted to get a second cookie and my wife's words came to mind. The cookie was OK but not great. It just wasn't worth the calories to eat a second one.

I love to sample foods. To try as many new flavors as possible. The trick is keeping the portions small. Fortunately I've learned that the thrill of a new food taste is rarely as good when I go back for seconds. So at a buffet, the first few bites of Item X are WOW! But if I refill my plate with more, the experience just isn't the same. Hence I try to limit myself to one small serving of items that look interesting and no repeats.

Bottom Line

Portion control is very important. We fill large plates and are served giant multi-serving servings. One effective diet I read about was the 1/2 diet. Eat only 1/2 of your plate or just 1/2 of anything you order. Save the other half for another meal. For some people this makes a big difference.

A kit for all occasions

“Failing to plan is planning to fail”

My wife and I are reconsidering the value of the traditional 72-hour kit. The problem is that they so rarely get used and the contents are wasted or forgotten or out-of-date. In case of fire will you remember to grab your kit and will you be able to access it?

Instead we favor a decentralized collection of emergency stashes.

• A well stocked home with First Aid supplies, food storage for at least three months, at least one week of water, and an alternative fuel for warmth in winter.


• A mini-kit for your purse or briefcase or backpack that you regularly carry. This should include some aspirin, Band-Aids, cell phone, emergency cash and flash drive with copies of all your important documents. I’d also include a power bar and bottled water.


• A go-kit for your car. The contents may be quite similar to a 72-hour kit (or this could be your 72-hour kit). You’re most likely to need the contents of a kit when away from home. Or if you’re fleeing home, the kit is already in the car.


• If you have a go-kit in your car and the mini-kit in a briefcase you won’t need anything extra for the office. But if you’re a train commuter, consider storing extra supplies kept at the office – like good walking shoes. During 9-11 a lot of people were forced to walk in uncomfortable dress shoes. The office is also a good back-up location for important photos and personal documents.


• A remote stash. If a hurricane or terrorist attack disables one or more states, you and your office will likely both be in the danger zone. Have a friend or family member keep an emergency packet for you containing photos, documents, and anything else you want to ensure is never lost.

Bottom Line

In mid-December 2000 people were stranded for up to 16 hours inside the Chunnel when the Eurostar train broke down. The train broke down again Jan 6. The riders were trapped in a dark, 24-mile long tunnel with no food, no water, and little help. It is cases like this were your go-kit at home or in the car won’t help you and when your really, really want it. Hence a mini-kit of power bar, water and other basics that you carry with you always.

Human Nature

“Really I don't like human nature unless all candied over with art.”- Virginia Woolf

As we make resolutions to be a better person in 2010, keep in mind these Five Laws of Human Nature from NewScientist.com.

1. The Peter Principle
   In any organization "people reach the level of their own incompetence". In other words people are promoted until they reach a level over their head and there they stay (unless fired.)
2. Parkinson's Law
   Work expands to fill the time available for its completion. Recent mathematical analyses have lent support to the idea. I once had a boss get upset that I finished a project ahead of schedule.
3. The Student Syndrome
   Work gets delayed until the last possible minute. Are you the type who waits until April to begin your taxes? Project Managers recognize this law and combat it by setting many small deadlines to motivate progress on a continual basis.
4. The Pareto Principle
   This is better known as the 80/20 rule. For example 20% of the staff do 80% percent of the work. 20% percent of the families own 80% of the wealth. And so on…
5. The Maes-Garreau law
   Predictions about a life-altering future technology will fall just within the expected lifespan of the person making it. In other words many future predicting experts place the date of earth shaking changes on or about their 70th birthday. If they’re wrong, at least they had a long career.

Bottom Line

Read the full article for more depth and additional laws like Parkinson’s "law of triviality" that states that the amount of time an organization spends discussing an issue is inversely proportional to its importance. Parkison also discovered that commitees of 20 or more persons become utterly hapless and useless.

Driver Error

"If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1000 MPG"- Bill Gates

Happy New Year! Today's blog is about a New Year's resolution that everyone can make to become a better driver.

According to the New York State Defensive Driving course, 95% of vehicle collisions are the result of Driver Error. Accidents that could have been avoided with better driving habits.

The definition of driver error is very broad and includes the following:

Distracted Driving - using a cell phone, reading a map or GPS, reading a book or newspaper, watching a movie on DVD, eating, putting on makeup, radio too loud, adjusting the mirrors, yelling at kids in the back, trying to text message or use a computer. People do amazing things while at the wheel!

Driving Too Fast - You might be speeding or just too fast for the local conditions. You can not expect to handle tight curves in the rain or snow at the same fast speed you use on sunny and dry days. You might be going too fast in a school zone and unable to stop in time for a child.

Driving Aggressively - there is fast and then there is crazy. People who hover on your back bumper and pass with just inches of space to spare. People who weave between cars trying to go faster than everyone on crowded highways. An extreme case of aggression is "Road Rage".

Defective Equipment - as the driver you are responsible for the maintenance of your car. If an accident occurs because the tires are bald and have no grip, the brakes are worn and slow to stop the car, the wipers are old and don't clear the windshield well - these are all preventable and listed as Driver Error. See Icy Windshields for winter advice.

Impaired Driver - it could be exhaustion from lack of sleep or chemically impaired by alcohol or drugs or medications. Check out my post on Rest Stops.

Bottom Line

Don't drive angry! Don't drive while impaired!

And pay attention while driving - check out Living Room on Wheels for more on distracted driving.

Perception

“Love is not blind; it simply enables one to see things others fail to see.”

I have long believed that Happiness is something internal, not external. A poor person with a loving family can be very happy while a rich person in a greedy family can be miserable. We make the decision regarding “do we have enough” or “is it good enough”. It’s a matter of perception.

For example, when traffic backs up during my commute I could decide to get frustrated and angry. Instead I enjoy the extra time this gives me with the lectures on CD I listen to.

Another example comes from Gary Smalley’s seminar, “Love is a Decision”. When I was googling Dr. Smalley a few days ago for an earlier blog, I was surprised to see how many sites cited this story. Clearly it made an impression on a lot of people.

Dr. Mark Smith tells it this way…

Dr. Gary Smalley […] was addressing a crowd on the theme of love and marriage, and he began his talk by walking over to a table and picking up an old, beaten up violin. The instrument’s bridge was broken and dangling by its strings. Holding up the violin for all to see, he asked the audience what he thought the instrument was worth. Everyone laughed, and most thought no more than ten or twenty bucks.

Then Smalley looked inside the body of the violin and read an inscription inside: “1723 Antonin Stradivarius.” There was an audible gasp, as the crowd recognized just how valuable it was. ($100,000 at the time).

Smalley passed it around to the people in the front row and they handled it very gently, with great respect. The amazing thing is that moments before, people thought it was just a piece of junk. Nothing changed – it was the same violin, the same wood, and the same broken strings. But people chose to honor it as the rare treasure it was. [One of 600 in the world.]

Enter “gary smalley Stradivarius” into Google for more references to this story.

Bottom Line

Choose to look the positive side of things. See the value in others and in the world around you.

Choose to see your spouse as a "Stradivarius" and sigh "awwwe" every now and then in their presence.

The Psychology of Fraud

“The natural assumption was that old people and kids get taken advantage of by scam artists. But it's really the people who like to shop online a great deal. They should proceed with more caution.”-Rob Janes

GeekPress.com sites an article by “Schneier on Security” which summarizes a paper about the Psychology of Being Scammed by the University of Cambridge Computer Laboratory.

The distraction principle. While you are distracted by what retains your interest, hustlers can do anything to you and you won't notice.

- Scammers often work in pairs. One may "accidentally" bump you while another picks your pocket or spill something on you and apologizing while your pocket is picked.

The social compliance principle. Society trains people not to question authority. Hustlers exploit this "suspension of suspiciousness" to make you do what they want.

- One trait of a good con artist is confidence; they radiate trustfulness. I had a brother-in-law who was a pro at this and gained the sympathy of people and organizations. Do not trust anyone who knocks on your door without an ID badge. If in doubt call the police or company they represent to verify the employee.

The herd principle. Even suspicious marks will let their guard down when everyone next to them appears to share the same risks. Safety in numbers? Not if they're all conspiring against you.

- This is a common trick with shell game operators and crooked poker games. You see someone else winning and they share their secret – watch for the tick in his eye when he bluffs. But it’s all a lie and the winner is part of the scam too.
- This is also a common problem on chat rooms and online comments. The person spinning a tale of good or bad may be working for the product’s company or against it. Many Amazon reviews are tainted this way.

The dishonesty principle. Anything illegal you do will be used against you by the fraudster, making it harder for you to seek help once you realize you've been had.

- A favorite trick of the KGB. They catch a US diplomat or serviceman in an affair (the woman is working for the KGB too) or drugs or discover his “Gay” secret, etc and then use this information as blackmail. Or you accept a small “innocent” bribe but they then leverage it to bigger things under the threat of exposure.

The deception principle. Things and people are not what they seem. Hustlers know how to manipulate you to make you believe that they are.

- Watch the classic movie “The Sting” for how elaborate this can get with fake businesses and fake police. Most of the Nigerian email scams rely on making you think there is a large sum of money that you can help someone acquire for a modest reward. People of all ages have been fooled and some continue to insist that the scammer really is an innocent person in need even after they've been defrauded.

The need and greed principle. Your needs and desires make you vulnerable. Once hustlers know what you really want, they can easily manipulate you.

- Drug dealers and websites exploit this – especially pornography. They offer multiple teasers and then require money (or more money) to go beyond to the next level. There are online games which are free to play but the “best” armor, potions, faster experience gaining, fastest movement or teleporting are only available for modest fees.

Bottom Line
The paper also discusses a dozen con scenarios, which are both informative (and entertaining).

The Universe is Big!

“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the drug store, but that's just peanuts to space.”-Douglas Adams

In the book Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe by Douglas Adams, the ultimate punishment is the Total Perspective Vortex. A person is shown a view of the entire universe and themself in relation to it. Only one person survives the experience.

If you'd like to experience this on a lesser scale, see the recent deep field Hubble Telescope picture at Astronomy Picture of the Day and understand the scale...

1. Galaxies are big with 100 billion stars on average. (see photo above) At the speed of light our closest star is 4 light years away. Our Milky Way is 100,000 light-years from edge to edge. The light we are now seeing from the center of our galaxy (50,000 LY) was emitted when homo sapiens left Africa to spread across the world.

2. The deep space image at http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap091209.html shows hundreds, if not thousands, of galaxies. The oldest pictured are over 12 billion years old. Three times older than our Solar System.

3. Now for the kicker. The new picture by Hubble covers an amount of sky equal to a grain of sand held at arm's length. Imagine the photo repeated for every dot in the sky!

Bottom Line

It's not easy for the mind to grasp big numbers and large scales. I've read that there are an estimated 100 billion galaxies. So if the photo and grain of sand give you an idea of the vast number of galaxies, remember that I said above that our Milky Way has 100 billion stars. The same number as the number of galaxies. And many of those stars have planets. So what are the odds that in all the vastness of our galaxy, we are unique in having life?

Some scientists call this the Fermi Paradox - why haven't we found other life yet? Statistically it should exist in abundance.

Straight Lines

“History moves in contradictory waves, not in straight lines”

As a contrast to the hyper-lacy borders of yesterday’s Mandelbrot set, today I’d like to look at a question posted on straightdope.com called How did the states establish long straight borders before GPS? Having western US roots I’m used to seeing long straight roads and neat lines for county and state borders. But as the article points out: 1. Straight lines are not always best and 2. The lines are not always as straight as they should be.

Point 1. A straight line is an easy border to write into law and land deeds; for example the 42nd parallel. But consider what happens when a winding river repeatedly crosses the straight border. The land “enclosed” by a river loop might be mostly NY but with one foot of PA on the inside edge. Imagine the complications in land registration and taxation. But defining a river as a border has drawbacks also; i.e. rivers move over time. Take a close look at the border of North Dakota and Minnesota - the Red River is incredibly loopy - on my GPS it's a fuzzy smudge - not a line.

Point 2. There are many reasons that straight borders are sometimes crooked.

A. Surveyors connect points with straight lines but the globe is curved. Find a globe and place a string on two points along the 45th parallel. Pull the string taunt. Notice how the string does NOT follow the 45th parallel.

B. Some surveyors forgot to correct for magnetic north because a compass does not point exactly true North. When surveyors defining the Virginia-North Carolina-Kentucky-Tennessee border working from the West and the East finally met, there was a 12 mile N/S error in their lines. Look at a map of Kentucky and look for the jag on the southern border about 70 miles from the western edge.

C. Sometimes the correct starting point of the border is poorly defined. The Missouri-Iowa border is defined by "the rapids of the River Des Moines." The Supreme Court later had to decide: which rapids?

D. Occasionally the surveying team is drunk. When drawing a 22-mile border between Quebec and Vermont, a fifth of the expenses went for booze. An international commission later acknowledged, that the border was "very far from a straight line."

Bottom Line

It’s funny how difficult some simple ideas can be. A straight line has a very simple definition – the shortest distance between two points. But straight lines on a globe and in gravity curved outer space are arcs. Another simple idea is “North” but finding true North – not so easy.
Keep this in mind next time you get angry when someone fails at a “simple” task. Perhaps the reality of executing the task is not as simple as you thought.

What NOT to do after a disaster

"There's no disaster that can't become a blessing, and no blessing that can't become a disaster"-Richard Bach

From MSN Money I spotted these after-the-disaster do's and don'ts. I'm going to focus on the DON'T in this posting.

• Don’t travel if you can avoid it. Roads and conditions may be dangerous.


• Don’t cross moving water by car or foot.


• Do not try to repair damaged gas or electrical lines yourself


• Do not use tap water until it is announced safe. Boiling may kill bacteria in the water but won’t remove any contaminants like sewage.


• Do not eat food in boxes or cans that have touched floodwaters
  Never use a power generator inside the house, the carbon monoxide may kill you. Do not plug it into the main house power lines.


• Don’t assume the insurer or government will take care of everything


• Don’t turn on water-damaged appliances without having them inspected


• Make emergency repairs as needed but don’t remove evidence of damage. The insurer needs to see the damage before they’ll pay for it.


• Don't accept the services of companies that drive through damaged neighborhoods immediately after a disaster – these may be scam artists


• Don't open the door to an insurance adjuster or inspector without an ID badge. Thieves use this ruse to gain entry to homes after disasters.


• Don’t sign away your rights. Some insurers may offer quick cash up front from emergency repairs but require that you sign away all future claims. Read carefully anything you’re asked to sign and don’t sign if you don’t understand it.


• Don’t assume the insurer is giving you their best offer. Read your policy and see what your rights are. If you think the insurer is acting unfairly, contact your state insurance department.


• Don’t miss deadlines for filing claims.

Watch what you say to Insurers

`When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less.'
`The question is,' said Alice, `whether you can make words mean so many different things.'
`The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, `which is to be master -- that's all.'
- Through the Looking Glass, by Lewis Carroll

MSN MoneyCentral has a great article called 5 things never to tell your insurer. They start the article pointing out that it is a criminal offense, fraud, to lie to your insurer. But the truth can go horribly wrong when the wrong words are used.

For example when your hot water heater breaks you might say your basement is flooded with water. But the word, “flood”, is a red flag for insurers – most policies do not cover flood damage. Fortunately insurers have a very specific definition for “flood” - water overflowing from a nearby lake, stream, river or other body of water. So with a pipe leak you have “water damage”, not “flood”.

Never say "experimental", "investigational" or "clinical trial" when you need a medical treatment that isn't a common practice. Just because it isn't common practice doesn't mean these insurance rejection terms apply to it. Mark O. Hiepler, a California attorney, advises clients to always say, 'It's medically necessary,' when referring to treatment. Also avoid the term “whiplash”. This is another red flag because of the many fake whiplash claims. Wait for a medical diagnoses and use only the terms in the doctor’s report.

Never guess or give an opinion in an accident. Just report the facts, don’t elaborate or estimate details like how fast the other car was moving. Did you measure the distance with tape? Did you look at your speedometer just before impact so you know exactly your speed? Your guess, if wrong, could harm your credibility and your claim. An insurer will ask and ask again for exact details like distance and speed that you cannot know with certainty. They are hoping you’ll give them an excuse to reject the claim. Suppose you say a car 40 feet ahead slammed on its brakes without warning and you hit it. The insurer might claim you had sufficient safe stopped distance so the fault is yours. Or they might decide you were tailgating and again the fault is yours.

Bottom Line

In most car accident aftermaths, all the facts are not immediately known. Don’t assume it’s your fault. Words like “I’m sorry” can be used against you as an assumption of fault. If you're not sure about how something happened, let the authorities and insurance companies figure it out. Ask your insurer about how you should respond to the other party’s insurer if they should call.

Stick to business and don’t get into “friendly” conversations with your insurer or a third party insurer. Your every word is recorded and will be used against you.

Taking Notes to save Money

“Whoever said money can't buy happiness simply didn't know where to go shopping.” - Bo Derek (American Actress, b.1956)

TheSimpleDollar.com has several ideas for saving money by having a notebook on hand. The article author has in mind a paper pad and pen but hey, this is the 21st century.
Many of the ideas will work on your blackberry or PDA or cell phone for taking notes.

1. Write down sale prices and prices at warehouse clubs. Sometimes you see a sale but are not convinced that it’s the best price around. Write down the price and place and compare it afterwards to other stores.

2. This idea also works great for comparing stores. Make your own list of essential items and add the prices at store. Who sells the cheapest bread? The least expensive milk? Whose price is always highest?

3. Keep an ongoing grocery list. When things run out, update your list. When purchased, check them off.
This also applies to making an errand list.

4. When a friend drops a gift hint or you spot the perfect gift – write it down! What item for whom. Then you can start looking around for the best price (see #1).

5. See something you want but don’t need? Write it down and wait 30 days. If you still want it, then buy it at the lowest price you’ve found while waiting.

6. Write down phone numbers or email of new people you meet.

7. After an accident, write down the person’s name, license plate number, drivers license number, insurance company, make of car, etc.

8. Write down recipes ideas and where you saw the recipe.

9. Keep a list of preferred brands recommended by Consumer Reports and other reviewers.

10. Write your big goals at the top of every page – e.g. loose weight, save money, and so on. This will keep them in mind.

Bottom Line

In some of the cases above, consider using your digital camera or cell phone camera to capture a price or memory. But beware! You’ll likely to make store managers nervous as you walk the aisles and take pictures.

I've read that many stores overcharge on basic foods to make up for the advertised sale prices on other items. They hate it when you price compare non-sale items and especially hate it when their non-sale prices are publicized. When a newspaper began publishing a weekly chart showing the price of milk, eggs, etc at local stores, the grocers fought back. They evicted anyone with a clipboard/etc who was writing down prices. The paper responded by giving the volunteers money to buy each item on the comparison list from each store and used the receipts to track prices.