Comsumer Psychology

Here are a few more items from the Atlantic's The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math.

You can be influenced (we do what we're told):
When a restaurant highlights an item with a photo or outlined in a box or printed in bold, you can bet that the item is good for the restaurant's profit line. It may be a fine item but be aware of the subtle influence and make up your own mind.

It's not Fair!
There's a classic experiment that demonstrated that people are not the rational actors that Economists thought they were. Person A is shown $10. He/She must decide how much to share with person B in a take-it-or-leave-it deal. If Person B nixes the deal, no one gets any money; A and B get nothing unless B is pleased with the deal.
Under a rational model B should agree to any amount greater than zero. A free penny is still a free penny and B is ahead. But that is not what happened. Instead most B's voted with their feelings and vetoed the deal if they felt it was not a fair split like 50-50.

Our minds do funny things when it comes to fair value.

In another experiment a person was told, you have a ticket for a play worth $20 and a $20 bill in your pocket. When you arrive at the play you find the ticket is missing. Do you buy another ticket?  Many people said no. I guess they felt they had paid once and refused to pay again or didn't want to throw good money after bad? 
In a second experiments the subjects are told they have two $20's. When they arrive at a play they want to see, they find one of the 20's is missing. Would they still spend the remaining $20 to buy a ticket? Most people said yes. They felt that the missing $20 had nothing to do with the decision to buy a ticket or not. There was no correlation. And yet, financially the two test cases are exactly the same. An item worth $20 was lost.

The Atlantic tells this story,

[Economist Dan] Ariely pretended he was giving a poetry recital. He told one group of students that the tickets cost money and another group that they would be paid to attend. Then he revealed to both groups that the recital was free. The first group was anxious to attend, believing they were getting something of value for free. The second group mostly declined, believing they were being forced to volunteer for the same event without compensation.

It's all a matter of perception.

Item's with 9's sell better. We may think $19.99 is a silly price but our mind locks onto the first digit '1' and we know in our gut that '1' is less than the '2' in $20.00.

"In the number 9, the bargain-hunter/discount-gatherer corner of our brain spots a pluckable deal."

Rebates and Warranties are money makers for business

"The first buys the illusion of wealth ("I'm being paid money to spend money!"). The second buys peace of mind ("Now I can own this thing forever without worrying about it!"). Both are basically tricks."

Business is counting on you to forget to submit the rebate form or to forget to follow-up if the rebate never arrives. As for Warranties, they are rarely collected upon so it's just extra money for the company for doing nothing.

Seven Habits of Highly Effective Hobbits

How can a geek not appreciate a headline like, Seven Habits of Highly Effective Hobbits? The author, Alex Knapp, was also the creative mind behind Leadership Lessons from Captain Kirk and Captain Picard.

"One of the reasons why Hobbits were so successful in the world beyond, to the point that, in the words of Elrond, they could “arise from their quiet fields to shake the towers and counsels of the Great” is because they have certain habits that predisposed them to success."

It should be noted that most Hobbits lived quiet, isolated, lives. The Hobbit Habits here (try saying that 5 times fast) belong to a small group of "highly effective" hobbits that changed the world. 

1. Be CleverBeing small, Hobbits rely on their wit to succeed and even the mighty are impressed by them.
2. Overcome Your FearsBe brave.
3. Be PreparedWhether a birthday part or a trip across the world, these Hobbits planned and managed resources effectively.
4. Support your Team"Loyalty is a central theme of The Lord of the Rings. ... It takes a team to accomplish great things, and teams require loyalty to survive."
5. Know when to Question the BossLoyalty is good but not blind loyalty. Sometimes those in charge are dangerously wrong.
6. Take a Chance on People"The entire saga of The Lord of the Rings hinges on two acts of mercy – by Bilbo and Frodo Baggins – in sparing the life of Gollum."
7. Stop and Smell the RosesIn the race to the top and success, don't forget to enjoy life along the way.  

Are drivers getting worse?

My wife & I are amazed at the crazy, stupid things that drivers do now-a-days. She recounts that last week she came to a stop in her car for a garbage truck which blocked the road. The car behind, which had been on her tail, would have none of that and sped blindly around her and the garbage truck.

Here's an extreme example from CBS News in Miami:

According to witnesses, a woman got impatient while waiting for a gas pump so she swerved in front of a yellow Hummer which was next in line. Apparently, when she sped up, she lost control and slammed into the gas pump which caused a huge explosion and fire.

The entire incident was captured on surveillance video and can be viewed at the CBS site.

Bottom Line

The article concludes with "No word on whether any charges will be filed."  I hope they throw the book at the driver for being reckless.

Why Me Make Mistakes

I'm listening to Why We Make Mistakes - By Joseph T. Hallinan during my daily commute and cannot shake the feeling that I've heard it already. Perhaps the déjà vu comes from hearing the same stories in other books like Blink and Freakonomics. Perhaps not.

The author cites many reasons that people make mistakes:

1. Memory bias - we color the past to favor ourselves
- we remember successes and good grades over failures and F's. We take credit for the successes and find blame to excuse the failures.
- we forget that we've changed our mind and think we've always been in favor of our current beliefs

2. Vision bias
- we are quick to classify. If we see a "construction worker" or person of another race our brain is happy and we look no further for additional details. When we see someone "like us" we look deeper for more identifying details.
- we see less than we think. When remembering a person it may be their hair or facial expression or mannerism that we recall. Rarely details of eyes, nose, mouth, ears, etc.
- we quickly tire when looking for rare events - when looking for something that is infrequent, like cancer in a mammogram, after hundreds of images of nothing, we miss the one case it does occur because we've become trained NOT to see it.

3. Hindsight bias
- After an accident, the correct action to have taken is "obvious". How could the person have missed the obvious?  It's only obvious after the fact.

4. Multi-tasking
- we multi-task poorly, despite what we think. Modern cars with too many displays and sensors become overwhelming.

5. The Danger of Snap judgements
- Our first answer to a test question is not always right. If you have a nagging feeling to change it, do so. The subconscious is more likely to be right than the gut instinct.
- People find the "perfect hiding place" with a snap judgement and then forget where it was.
- People quickly create a password and then forget it

Bottom Line

The author's main point is that we cannot avoid being "human". Rather than blaming mistakes on "human error" find the reason why humans are prone to this error and do something about it.

For example, anesthesiologists used to use machines from two manufacturers. In one the dosage was increased by turning a dial clockwise, in the other, counter-clockwise. Naturally mistakes were made when an anesthesiologist forget which machine type they were using. Patients died until a standard was set so all machines worked the same way.

How to be more Creative

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."
-Thomas A. Edison

I find it difficult to be "creative". I enjoy "improving" upon something created by someone else but when faced with a blank canvas, I have no idea what to paint. With this blog it helps me to see an inspiring topic on the Internet which I can then research and comment upon. Once there's a topic, I can write pages on it.

Where do new ideas and new topics come from? The website MarcAndAngel has some ideas.

1. You need Knowledge. It's hard to be creative in a vacuum or in a state of ignorance. "most creative breakthroughs rest on the shoulders of everything that came before it."  Artists keep scrap books for ideas. Charles Darwin was stumped for years on what "caused" evolution; then while reading Malthus' work on Population and competition for resources, it dawned on him that "survival of the fittest" would explain why some animals prospered while others went extinct. Isaac Newton wrote that he could see further because he "stood on the shoulders of giants". Well today those giants would sue for unsanctioned (and unpaid) use of their ideas under Intellectual Property Rights laws.

2. You need Passion. "Enthusiasm is the lifeblood of creativity." It is hard to be creative when bored. Creativity takes time and lots of effort which you're more likely to do if it's for something you're passionate about.

3. Don't repeat the past. Build upon the past (topic #1) but don't be limited by it. "We must step outside of our comfort zone and attempt unfamiliar activities if we hope to achieve breakthroughs in our future." One graphic designer at TED.com said that he shuts down his company every 7 years for a year-long sabbatical. He lifts the company out of the rut it gets into by exposing everyone to new ideas and new experiences and a little fun that will inspire them for the next six years.

4. Don't fear failure. "If you hope to exercise your creativity, you must get over your fear of failure."
I hate editing my own work. I want it, expect it, to be perfect the first time I write it. There's no "passion" for me in deleting my own work. But quality work requires drafts, edits, complete rewrites, tossing out chapters, etc. With artists we remember the "perfect" paintings, like the Mona Lisa, and are unaware of the thousands of faces DaVinci sketched in his note books, and the many other portraits he did that are not remembered today. We forget that DaVinci was always experimenting and has some big failures (one majestic mural he did 'melted' when the new paint mixtures he used failed to set and dry properly)

5. Take a break. You won't be super creative when exhausted (though you might have a breakthrough while dreaming). Some of the biggest discoveries come from the subconscious when you take some time off from the problem.

6. Test your output on someone else. Isaac Newton kept his discoveries on gravity and planetary motion locked in a drawer for decades. He had no clue how rare his insight was until Kepler asked to see his results. On the other hand, some inventors think their invention or art is the best thing in the world and resist any feedback from friends before submitting it to the world as-is with flaws.

7. Don't fence me in. As an opposite to #6, don't let friends or critics tell you what you can NOT do. "They may suggest that your creative ideas are impractical and ridiculous because nobody really cares."  While constructive criticism is healthy, avoid negative criticism about what is impossible or unprofitable. They might be right but they might also be wrong and you'll be the one that shows the world something new.

Bottom Line

As Edison quipped in his famous quote, genius (e.g. invention, creativity) takes a lot perspiration. I'm amazed when I visit art museums around the world and keep seeing the "same" paintings. Just how many haystacks and water lilies did Matisse paint? How many bath scenes by Mary Cassatt? These artists did the same subject over and over again to practice their technique, to discover something new. They worked hard for the fame they achieved.

Can't think of a good insult thou droning elf-skinned malt-worm?

It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing
- Shakespeare's Macbeth

Have you ever needed a really great insult and nothing came to mind. Well worry no more.

TastefullyOffensive.com offers the following Shakespeare Insult Kit  

If I look at the bottom of the chart I might come up with, Thou yeasty toad-spotted varlot!

Bottom Line

While the chart above is very clever and funny, personally I don't recommend insults. They can wound very deeply and permanently scar a relationship with a friend or relative. When used with strangers you're flirting with violence and inviting a fight. (Unless that is, you use a Shakespearean insult, in which case you'll most likely leave your target very confused).

When the ancient Greeks studied the art of debate and rhetoric they gave a name to verbal attacks against an individual - "Ad hominem". A person might argue, Don't believe what X says because he's an idiot. It's a reputation attack which ignores the topic under debate and proves nothing. Calling a person an idiot, or stupid, or one of the Shakespearean insults above does not win anything - it just hurts.

Selection Bias

A story from WWII has been making the rounds on the Internet...

During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to their bombers to make them more robust. He examined the records of planes that had returned to base and noted where the bullet holes were. He recommended adding more armor to the places where there was no damage.

What? Wouldn't you want more armor where the bullets hit? No.

Wald reasoned that gunfire was not fired by snipers and that bullets were equally likely to hit anywhere on a plane. So what could explain why some locations on the planes showed damage and other areas nothing at all? It's an example of selection bias. Since only planes that were able to fly back after being hit were examined, the damaged areas indicated locations that were already strong enough to take a hit and keep flying. The areas that were serious enough to bring down the plane when hit were not recorded because the plane was lost. 

Selection bias is a sneaky error that can creep in to any study. Suppose you test a diet on 1000 people. 700 drop out and never finish. But you get great results with the 300 who stick with it and publish your diet as very successful when followed faithfully. But what about the drop-outs? Why did they drop out? Perhaps the diet made them ill, or failed to work, or made them gain weight. By including the drop-outs in the final results the results change from wildly successful to a 70% chance of failure.

Suppose you call random homes between 9-5 on a weekday for a survey. Is this a random sample? No. You're won't get families with two working parents. Instead the study will bias the unemployed, stay-at-home moms/caretakers, the self-employed, and others who might be at home instead of an office during working hours. To overcome the bias of the home/hours selected, the surveyors need to call back at later hours the homes not reached so that every home is accounted for in the survey with few to no drop-outs.

Or consider that many psychology studies are made with college student subjects who get paid for participating. This is a case of self-selection bias. Those who select themselves are likely to be 18-25, a college student, willing to do odd things for money, etc. Again not a random sample and a difficult problem to fix. Even if you advertise the study in the paper and radio for a broader population, you'll not see successful CEO's & lawyers sign up for minimal wage.  And the study is still haunted by self-selection, the extremely shy or introveted are not likely to apply.

Bottom Line

Always be extra cautious when a study or survey says it used a "random sample". How was the randomness generated? Was there hidden bias in the selection method?

Pursuit of Happiness

John Stuart Mill

I have learned to seek my happiness by limiting my desires, rather than in attempting to satisfy them.
- John Stuart Mill 

I was reading the blogs of Jeffrey Carter, an "Independent Speculator" and Stock Market commentator, for the first time today. Most of his blogs are targeted at market traders but one title caught my eye, "Taxing Rich Guys". It makes the usual (conservative) points about how it's the investments from the Rich Guys that fund start-ups, create new businesses and create jobs. By reducing Rich Guy's wealth with higher taxes, you also reduce the available money to create jobs.

But that's old news if you read my blog. What made me sit up was his July 4th observation on the phrase "pursuit of happiness". People interpret this today as a right to happiness itself. That government must somehow save us from every pain and woe. But that is not the original intent. The Founding Fathers wanted the freedom to find happiness on their own terms. Freedom to pursue happiness.

This made me realize that we are far from that ideal today. The government blocks many forms of "enjoyment" - dog fighting, child porn, drugs, fox hunting, etc. You might argue that these are "evil" types of happiness and I would agree. But it's not so easy for society to draw the line between good and bad happiness. Gay sex was once illegal (and still is in some countries). One of the greatest minds in mathematics and computer science, Alan Turing, who helped win World War II by breaking the German Enigma code, was criminally prosecuted in England in 1952 for homosexual acts and died in prison. The British Prime Minister officially apologized for this in 2009. What was once officially banned is now allowed while things that were once allowed, like salty and fatty foods, are now being banned.

Suppose you like the wind in your hair as you ride a motorcycle - sorry not allowed; helmets required.

How should society decide between right and wrong activities for individuals (or consenting groups)?

One option can be found in John Stuart Mill's book, On Liberty, and apply his concept of Self-regarding actions vs Other-regarding actions. One website summarizes this as,

The sole permissible end for individual or collective interference with individual liberty of action is the avoidance of harm to others (other regarding actions). In  matters concerning only oneself, one’s right is absolute (self-regarding actions).  Over oneself, one’s body and mind, the individual is sovereign.  Hence, the following sacrosanct: absolute liberty of conscience, tastes, opinion & speech; limited liberty of pursuits and association (no harm to others clause). 

Another site has this to say,

When a person is only hurting himself or herself, Mill says that people can advise him/her to adopt self-regarding virtues but ultimately, each person has the complete freedom to make their own decision. If a person does not adopt self-regarding qualities, society cannot publicly denounce him/her, although they can hold their own personal negative opinions. These private opinions are what ultimately may hurt a person who is not pursuing what society perceives as his/her own best interests. This is referred to as a natural penalty that is incurred by bad self-regarding interests. In addition to that natural penalty, Mill states that in a harmful self-regarding action, the only harmed person is the perpetrator who in effect, is giving and receiving his own punishment.

Mill agrees in part to the counterargument against his philosophy stating that it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to believe that any action can solely affect the agent and will not be relevant to the community. However, he asserts that only when the action brings on the risk or actuality of public damage does society have the right to punish the perpetrator. Mill gives the example of a drunk man who shouldn't be punished for his intoxication unless he is a policeman or similar protector of society on duty and unable to fulfill his duties. In Mill's opinion, if a person's actions have little significance to society, then it is in the best interest of society to allow basic human liberties to prevail.

However even this "simple" concept quickly falls apart. Should animals count as "others"? If so then no fox hunts, dog fights or cock fights. Is it other-regarding if I hurt your feelings or offend in some way but do no physical harm? Some societies ban kissing in public as offensive. 


Bottom Line


What do you think? Should government protect your happiness at the cost of limiting what others may do? Limit your activities in order to protect animals from harm? Should government protect individuals from being offended? Protect people from injuring themselves with "bad" food or "dangerous" hobbies?

30-day Challenges

Matt Cutts

"30 days is enough time to build a habit"
- Matt Cutts

About a month ago on one of my favorite blogs I read about a recent TED talk regarding self-improvement through 30-day challenges. I showed it to my wife who thought it was a great idea. Then a few days later we tried to find the post and could not find it. We tried Google and searched the archives of blogs we frequent but no luck. Today I tried Google again and found it. When an idea becomes popular it will rise in Google ranking so it pays to retry.

The talk was by Matt Cutts, who heads Google’s Webspam team, at TED University. The presentation is not online yet but Matt keeps a blog on the topic at http://www.mattcutts.com/blog/type/30-days/.

The first entry is June 2009,

30 days is enough time to build a habit. Last month, I started trying to walk 10,000 steps a day for 30 days. I didn’t walk 10K steps every day, but I did keep at it until I’d walked over 10K steps for at least 30 days. In the process, I discovered that walking to the grocery store can be a relaxing way to unwind and get some exercise. I’m just now wrapping up an effort to not watch any television for 30 days.

Each month Matt sets a new personal challenge. They have included:

- Biking to work
- Reading 15 books in 30 days (he managed 12). His wife tries to read 50 pages every days and loves it.
- Not using Microsoft software (find alternatives to everything MS, can you tell he works for Google?)
- A digital cleanse, no twitter, no facebook, no email outside of work
- No iPhone
- Write a novel in 30 days
- meditate 10-15 minutes every day
- 30 days with no caffeine
- 30 days with no sugar. Matt says, "That was hard. My wife and I did this one together and it was the roughest."
- get my finances in order
- Take a picture every day
- A new word a day

Future ideas include:

- 30 days as a vegetarian.
- read the Bible (or the Qur’an) in 30 days
- 30 days of trying to learn to play guitar.
- try one new thing a day for 30 days.
- draw something everyday for 30 days.
- try polyphasic sleep for 30 days.
- go 30 days spending as little money as possible.
- learn as much of a new language as possible in 30 days.
- no complaining
- learn to sing

Bottom Line

We're going to try this at my home. For April we have picked home improvement. A task everyday to clean-up or straighten the house and prepare the garden for spring planting. We recently had some interior rooms repainted which led to changing the furniture arrangement, different items hung on the walls, and disorder in all the other rooms where stuff was put while the living room was painted. We hope that the house will sparkle by the end of April.

Warehouse Psychological Tricks

DealNews.com has discovered 7 Ways Warehouse Clubs Get You Hooked on Buying in Bulk

I always say shopping is cheaper than a psychiatrist. 
~Tammy Faye Bakker

1. Low prices
Low priced items attract shoppers. A warehouse can sell at prices near cost and still make a profit from the annual membership fees.

2. No music
There’s no fast music to make you shop faster.

3. Large sizes that look like deals
We are taught that bigger is better so Warehouses often supply huge sizes and quantities of products that are not what we are used to. You have to look at the unit prices to see you are actually getting a deal. And even a great unit price will be a poor buy if some of the food spoils before you can use it.

4. Product placement
Tech equipment like computers provide little profit margin, so stores put these in front to encourage rapid turnover. The Hot Spot for buying is the ends of aisles, or "end caps" as they’re known. Signage will claim the featured end caps are great bargains but check twice before grabbing the product.

5. A treasure hunt
Warehouses are designed to make you walk through as much as possible, hunting for items, in the hopes something will catch your eye for an impulse purchase. Some people enjoy the Treasure Hunt of finding "hidden" bargains.

6. Survival of the fittest
Warehouses can be a pain with parking, lines, self carting, etc. "It’s not an easy trip, so once there, you might as well make the best of it and buy as much as you can so that you don’t have to do another trip soon."

7. Customized deals
The Sam’s Club program, which requires an extra annual fee, uses predictive analytics on past purchases to determine which items would be attractive specifically to you, and then offers you discounts on those items.

Bottom Line

Buy only what you need. Don't be fooled into buying more than you need.

Five things worth haggling over

Connie Mack

"After all my years, there are two things I've never got used to - haggling with a player over his contract and telling a boy he's got to go back."

- Connie Mack (1862-1956) longest-serving manager in Major League Baseball history

Money.msn.com suggests 5 things worth haggling over

1. Home repairs

There is a lot of competition out there for home repairs like snaking your drain, painting, or electrical work. Know what your limit is and stick too it. You don't have the hire the first person who gives you a quote. We got four quotes to fix a leaking shower and nearly a dozen quotes for new windows. We still have not yet done the windows because the price is too high.

"Ultimately, being able to say no gives you a lot of leverage when you haggle. People who can walk away from the negotiating process often get called back with a better deal than those who feel (rightly or wrongly) that they have no other option. It's also important not to accept the first discount offered if it isn't what you want -- silence, waiting or just saying no can produce a better deal."

You can also get better prices in the winter when contractors are idle and need work.

Don't forget to check references, license and insurance. Sometimes the lowest bid is not worth the damage done by an unskilled contractor.

2. Auto repairs

"Finding a mechanic you can trust is a key ingredient to keeping your car well-maintained and reliable. But that doesn't mean you have to pay whatever the mechanic wants to charge."

If it's a big job get competing bids and ask your favorite mechanic if he/she will match.

3. Medical bills

"If you're low-income and have a hospital bill, you should ask to speak to the hospital's financial counselor. Many hospitals and other medical providers have charity programs that provide discounts for people making up to 300% of the federal poverty level. Since that level is about $14,000 for a family of two, a couple making up to $42,000 might qualify for some kind of break.
Another option is to ask for the same discounts the medical provider gives major health insurers"

4. Mattresses

Manufacturers and retailers deliberately obscure the information you'd need to compare mattresses by giving unique names to their product lines. So you have to find what you like by feel and dicker over the price. Walk out if the price is not what you want - you can always go to another retail store of the same company. We had one salesman get angry because he "called his manager" for a discount on our behalf and we still would not buy.

5. Jewelry

Jewelry markup is huge so don't be afraid to ask for 70% off.  Even 50% off may be over paying! Don't become attached to the piece - you must show that you can walk away and not buy. A smart salesperson will have you put on the jewelry because once you touch something, you're more likely to buy it.

Bottom Line

Don't be afraid to ask for a discount. If they say no, go somewhere else.

The Value of Free Goods

"We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared, so we will always be free."
Ronald Reagan

Today I came across several instances of the value of "Free" at Techdirt.com,  a website offering "insight into news stories about changes in government policy, technology and legal issues that affect companies ability to innovate and grow."  The site itself is an example of what it preaches. The blog is free, with no registration required, and an interesting daily read. The owner of the site hopes that you'll recognize his analytic skills and hire his company for personalized news and advice.

Google is another example of free (but with a twist). Originally Google hoped you'd be impressed by their free search engine and hire them to provide searches on your company documents and email. Now I wonder if they don't make more money from the ads shown while you google. Also Google's algorithms watch what you search for and what you pick from the list and they use this to improve future searches. So in essence you're doing work for google for free.

Anyhow, the first Techdirt story was about the TED Conference. The annual meetings on Technology, Entertainment and Design used to be by invite only and very secretive with non-disclosures signed by attendees. Only the rich and famous and powerful knew about it. Now you can watch past presentations for free at Ted.com. Instead of weakening the product this has created a HUGE surge in attendance, higher prices for seats, and sister conferences around the world.

The second story is about a Swedish truck company that discovered knock-offs of their trucks being made in China. They knew a lawsuit would be pointless so instead they worked with the Chinese company to help it find a truck design of their own that would sell and not be a knock-off. This is a classic Covey Win-Win story where free advice helped everyone.

Bottom Line

Free samples at stores. A free test drive of a car. A free download of trial software. A small free giveaway can lead to read dollar purchases of something larger.

Seeing is Believing?

Squares A & B are the same color!

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

My posts for the next few days will be short as I'm working overtime at the office.

We like to think that we can trust our eyes. At a trial the most trusted testimony comes from an "eyewitness". But in reality our eyes are easily fooled.

Here is a 30-second video from New Scientist magazine called the expanding arc illusion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h91Aj9AGuA
You brain may know the two arcs are the same size but they sure don't look it.

This article, http://blog.asmartbear.com/color-wheels.html, talks about why color wheels "are wrong." For example, did you know there is no color in the rainbow or light spectrum that is Magenta. It's an invention of eye with how the human brain combines colors.

Bottom Line

Presently my wife and I are having the interior of the house painted. Getting paint chips to color match is not simple. What looks perfect in the store, won't match when viewed outdoors or in our living room. Colors are influenced by the light we see them in.

Likewise all perception is contextual. What is loud to a parent is not loud to a teenager. There are "Super-tasters" with more taste buds on their tongue who experience food differently. There are super sniffers who work for perfume companies. We are each unique in how we perceive the world.

What don't you know?

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"
-Charles Darwin

Yesterday I mentioned "Credentialed, Not Educated" to describe leaders at all levels of politics; people with little experience that have a very high opinion of their abilities and knowledge. Recently the Instapundit cited a reference to the Dunning-Kruger effect in the context of political hubris. I'd never heard of this so I looked it up.

Justin Kruger and David Dunning published a paper while at Cornell University entitled, "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".
They found while testing students, that those who scored poorly rated themselves as much more skilled than they really were. While those who tested well had self-doubts about their knowledge and rated themselves less skilled than actual.

Some people just don't know what is missing from their knowledge. This is not to say that they cannot learn; only that there are topics they have never-ever been exposed to and are completely unaware of. To use a physical example, many people are unaware that they have a vision problem. If you've always seen the world as blurry, then you think that this is natural and normal. You have no clue that others see the world sharper and in more focus. Then when you get your first pair of glasses, it's like, wow, I never knew things could look like this.

When a doctor asks me to rate a pain on a 1-10 pain scale, I'm flustered. What does 10 feel like? If I've never experienced it, how do I know that my present pain is only a 7? Is my level-10 pain the same as his? (As it turns out, no. I have a high pain threshold so I've been under rating myself on the pain scale.)

Returning to Kruger and Dunning, they proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they can be trained to substantially improve.

Many politicians get a degree in social science or politics or law, do some social work, and get elected. They have never managed a business, never really had a nine-to-five job in their life. Yet their self-confidence in their ability to fix the business world with new laws is stratospheric. They are blind to personal areas of ignorance.

Bottom Line

Poet W.B. Yeats captured the irony between those well informed & able (who do nothing) vs the uninformed & incompetent (who are militant),

"The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."

30 Things I Wish I’d Done Before I Turned 30

“Grow old along with me! The best is yet to be, the last of life, for which the first was made. Our times are in his hand who saith, 'A whole I planned, youth shows but half; Trust God: See all, nor be afraid!'” - poet Robert Browning

There's a charming blog post on www.thefrisky.com/ called 30 Things I Wish I’d Done Before I Turned 30.

There are traditional items ...

1. Gotten Pregnant

2. Traveled Europe
9. Hitched Myself

Some intellectual goals ...
5. Earned a Ph.D.
26. Read Moby Dick. Or War and Peace. Or Anna Karenina

Skills never learned...

11. Learned a Foreign Language

29. Learned How to Cook

Lost opportunities ...
19. Spent More Time with People Who Died
20. Attended More Weddings 25. Competed in the Olympics

Fun Things Never attempted...
7. Acted in a Movie
12. Dyed My Hair Some Insane Color
13. Gotten More Tattoos
24. Learned How to Surf

Health: Body and Soul...
10. Taken Better Care
14. Volunteered More
17. Ran a Marathon
18. Been More Spiritual
21. Gotten a Boob Job
23. Mastered Yoga

And Psychological Goals...
22. Figured Out Who I Was
27. Got Over Turning 30
28. Conquered My Fear of Heights
30. Stopped Making Lists

Bottom Line

What would your list include of things you didn't do when younger? Some thing are never too late to start like
16. Started My Own Small Business

I'll close with some lyrics from a favorite song - Both Sides Now

So many things I would have done
But clouds got in my way
...
But now old friends are acting strange
They shake their heads, they say I've changed
Well something's lost, but something's gained
In living every day

I've looked at life from both sides now
From win and lose and still somehow
It's life's illusions I recall
I really don't know life at all

Death vs Risk

"Death is not the greatest loss in life. The greatest loss is what dies inside us while we live."-Norman Cousins

My current Commuting to Work CD Lecture Series is about the religious upheaval of the Reformation. In the first lecture, the professor made an interesting comment - religion was a serious matter back in the 1500s. Before modern medicine and modern hygiene, people died all stages of life, especially children. Someone might be healthy today but die tomorrow. Life was short and uncertain and no one truly knew what was safe. Many thought the chill of cold water when bathing was unhealthy. Some thought mercury or arsenic was good for the body. Death was beyond anyone's control.

"But at my back I always hear. Time's winged chariot hurrying near"
- Andrew Marvell in "To his Coy Mistress"

"Because I could not stop for Death, He kindly stopped for me;"
- poem by Emily Dickinson

With death never far away, people were naturally concerned with their soul and the judgement of God. Would they go to heaven if they died the next day? How could they improve their odds for salvation? They relied on the Roman Catholic Church to save them both in life and after death. For example, in the 1500's it was very popular to purchase salvation through the buying of indulgences. Martin Luther objected to this practice in his 95 Theses and the Reformation began.

Today life expectancy is quite long and most people expect to live to a ripe old age. Yes accidents happen but these are rare exceptions. We now live in the material world for many, many decades and the spiritual world is something distant and far off, something to be put off until we're old.

I was reminded of this topic this weekend when discussing risk and what children used to do versus what we allow children to do now-a-days. With a long life expectancy, we fear death more. We have so much more life to lose from an early death caused by accident or disease. Instead of death being a part of life, we do everything in our power to keep death away from the young. Don't climb that tree, you might break your neck. Wear a helmet when you ride your bike. Don't eat that, it's filthy with germs. The odds of a child dying from tree climbing, etc are low but the odds are greater than zero. That makes many parents nervous and they limit opportunities and actions of their kids to lower the risk to as near zero as possible.

"A coward dies a thousand deaths, the brave die but once."
- Shakespeare in Julius Caesar

A life of zero risk and zero exposure has it's own risks. Science is finding that when young children are not exposed to germs, they develop more severe allergies and have less immunity when they grow up. An isolated, at-home child will have weaker social skills which could impact their success on the job later in life.

Bottom Line

Isaiah 22:13 "Let us eat and drink; for tomorrow we shall die."
Don't be so afraid of death that you run away from life. Embrace life and accept a little risk. Live a little. But don't forget the golden mean and go crazy in excess. Personally I'll pass on bungee jumping and sky diving. "Everything in moderation" - Aristotle.

"The unexamined life is not worth living."-at his trial, Socrates argued that life must be about more than making money and being successful in your career. For him it was important to discuss ethics and religion and to determine how best to live with the time given to man. Aim high with your life.

Texas Tornado

A reader of http://www.survivalblog.com/ submitted the following first-hand account of the tornado that hit Texas last weekend.
Here is a copy of the letter to survivalblog.com.

"I have been reading your blog for a while but until Saturday, I never saw how a disaster could unhinge some people so quickly and what lack of preparedness can do to some people.

I went to deliver a chainsaw, some gas and water to a relative in Yazoo City and what is usually a 45 minute drive took over 2 hours. Land lines and cell towers were down, and if you had a phone with a certain carrier, the service was very spotty. The traffic was bad and the roads into the town were blocked and we were turned away twice by a motley group of authorities but mostly State police. One local deputy was sympathetic and told us a way to get in the town that was 35 miles out of our way and we eventually got close to the north side of town and we had to drive over live power lines and swerve around transformers. We got to the entrance of town and there were two State troopers blocking the exit but we told them we were delivering some supplies and they let us through.

Eventually, we reached the home and there were trees and power lines everywhere. No power, no gas lines, homes and cars crushed, etc. One generator was being shared by neighbors and gas was being siphoned out of boats and cars to power it. There was one electric chainsaw that was plugged into the generator. Things to note were that the authorities were very stressed out and not experienced with this kind of devastation and there were many people who tried to get to loved ones or family that couldn't get past the road blocks. Some people just left their cars on the sides of the road and were allowed to walk into town. One lady drove around the roadblock and was chased by a cop car.

There were people panicking and the Red Cross got there and all they were doing was handing out water bottles. The power company was only responsible for getting the trees off the power lines. You could see people just staring at their crushed homes and houses wondering what to do. There were cops on four wheeler ATVs just riding around and eventually the National Guard showed up but they were just driving around.

Some lessons learned:
* No one is getting into town right after a disaster
* Have a big chainsaw and make sure there are no trees in your yard
* Have a four-wheeler and a 15 foot trailer to haul out pieces of debris from your home/yard
* Have a siphon and a generator
* Know how to turn off your gas in your home because live wires and natural gas don't mix
* Know beforehand that the authorities are not there to help you but to maintain order and the power company is not going to cut down that tree that is now in your dining room.
* Brick homes fare better than stick ones
* Anticipate that neighbors are going to freak out and run around like chickens with their heads cut off and try to do silly things like get in their cars and drive over debris in the road and get stuck and pop their tires.
* Have gloves and chains in your truck and keep a full tank of gas at all times. Some people ran out of gas in the traffic.
* Realize that tensions are going to be high and seeing weird things like one group of people having a barbecue and getting drunk and across the street one family was sitting on the lawn waiting for help is a recipe for a bad situation. I saw a kid in the road trying to flag us down and there were some guys leaning up against a house a bit out of sight. We just drove around him. I couldn't believe that it was already getting strange and the tornado was only a few hours earlier.

So in a nutshell, that was my experience and one more thing, the tornado hit so fast that the siren didn't give enough warning. And what was worse, people are conditioned to think the siren means thunderstorm or it could be a test or something else. So no one was prepared until they heard the freight train sound and with no one having basements in Mississippi, there isn't really a safe place to be."

Bottom Line

Any “Disaster” will cause chaos by definition. Without the chaos, the natural event would be just a bad storm. Expect confusion, wrong advice, ill prepared officials, and inoperative infrastructure. You must be able to support yourself for at least three days without water and electricity.

I have a friend who is an EMT. After a major storm in our town that brought down huge branches everywhere and even a few trees, an ambulance needed two hours to deliver a heart attack victim to the hospital. In some places police prevented the ambulance from traveling closed roads. The family of the victim is suing because they encountered fewer road closures and arrived first at the hospital.

Not Enough Sleep!

Please turn on your magic beam
Mr. Sandman, bring me a dream.
- lyrics: Mr. Sandman by the Chordettes

Did you know....

· Almost 74% of all Americans do not get enough sleep each night.

· We sleep on average 6.9 hours/day, almost an hour less than a few decades ago; an hour and half less than a century ago. (Eight hours and fifteen minutes is considered ideal.)

· Parents of young children lose an extra hour of sleep each night. (NSF 2004.)

· Sleep problems are reaching epidemic proportions, estimated to be the #1 health related problem in America - (CNN, May 1997.)

· Fatigue's consequences include higher instances of motor vehicle accidents, work-related accidents, decreased productivity and adverse health effects.

· Sleep deprivation can reduce attention and vigilance by 50 percent, decision-making ability by 5 0percent, communication skills by 30 percent, and memory by 20 percent.

· The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that “drowsy driving” causes 100,000 automobile wrecks, 71,000 injuries and 1,550 fatalities each year.

Adults needs about 8 hours of sleep each night to refuel the body, especially the brain. (9-10 hours for children and teenagers.) Certain parts of the body, like muscles, can rejuvenate on just rest alone. However the regeneration of neurons and the formation of lasting memories within the brain required a deep sleep called REM (rapid eye movement).

A person who loses one night’s sleep will generally be irritable and clumsy during the next day and will either become tired easily or speed up because of adrenalin. After missing two night’s sleep, a person will have problems concentrating and will begin to make mistakes on normal tasks. Three missed nights and a person will start to hallucinate and lose grasp of reality. Someone who gets just a few hours of sleep each night occurs a large “sleep debt” and can begin to experience many of the same problems over time. A 1997 study found that people whose sleep was restricted to four to five hours per night for one week needed two full nights of sleep to recover performance, alertness and normal mood. - http://www.sleepdex.org/deficit.htm

Sleep debt weakens the immune system leaving one more susceptible to other diseases and disorders like diabetes, cancer and even the common cold. Sleep debt also causes much stress and, again, stress weakens the immune system - a double whammy.

Bottom Line

Suggestions on how to get more sleep include:

· Purposefully go to bed earlier each night.
· Don’t smoke or drink alcoholic or caffeinated beverages in the hours before bedtime.
· Improve your sleeping environment in any way you can – for example, keep it dark and sound-proof, turn off lights and wear earplugs if you have noisy neighbours.
· Don’t have any distractions in the bedroom such as TV or a computer.
· Use relaxation techniques to help you fall asleep quickly.
· Seek professional assistance for sleep disorders such as snoring.

http://treat-insomnia.com/sleep-deprivation/
http://www.cameraguild.com/safety/sleep-deprivation.htm

Criminal Behavior

“Everybody in the whole cell block,
Was dancing to the jailhouse rock.”
- lyrics, Elvis Presley, Jailhouse Rock

The NY Times published an interesting story on effectively dealing with repeated drug offenders.

“How do you force criminals to change their behavior? … the US criminal justice system has been spectacularly bad at answering this question. America is the most punitive nation in the world, with 2.4 million of its citizens behind bars and another 5.1 million on probation or parole. Yet … two-thirds of released prisoners commit another serious offense within three years.”

Judge Steven Alm of Hawaii realized that the current policy didn’t work. Most probation violations went unpunished and he might see an offender only after dozens of violations, at which point his choices were: let the violator off with yet another warning or send him to prison for many years.

Jerry Lum of Honolulu, a meth smoker since age 14, spent nearly half of his 42 years behind bars but continued smoking meth. “I could game the system,” he says. “I used to be late to see my probation officer — sometimes, if I knew my drug test was going to be dirty, I wouldn’t even show up.” Officers usually looked the other way. Given the lengthy paperwork involved, there were not enough hours in the day to write up every infraction.

So Judge Alm changed the rules with a new program called HOPE. ALL parole violations would be punished. He rewrote the paperwork so it would take only minutes to fill out and simplified the court procedures down to 7 minutes per parole violation. Drug tests were made random – parolees call each night to learn if they are to be tested the next day. Participants who test positive for drugs are arrested on the spot, tried within 72 hours, and sentenced to jail for two to five days.

“After just six months, HOPE probationers were 93 percent less likely to miss an appointment with an officer or to fail drug tests. Since most HOPE participants were able to quit drugs and hold down steady jobs, many stopped resorting to crime. … Though HOPE cost $1,400 more per probationer than the old system, it saved the state $6,000 per probationer in reduced incarceration costs.”

Bottom Line

“Cesare Beccaria, an Italian philosopher and arguably the first criminologist, wrote in 1764, “The certainty of a small punishment will make a greater impression than the fear of one more severe.” Several generations of experts reached the same conclusion: Punishments are more effective when they follow closely after crimes, and when they are levied consistently.”

Jerry Lum has not spent a day in jail since joining HOPE. “I hate to say it,” he says, “but I’m the type of person that — when I wasn’t supervised — I kept screwing up. If I’m supervised, no problem.”

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

From nerdnirvana.org