Our fragile Infrastructure

There is an excellent editorial by Matt Gurney at the NationalPost.com about the fragility of our infrastructure and how the best laid plans of governments and men go oft awry when reality proves more complex than anyone had planned for. Gureny argues that our infrastructure is more complex than anyone can possibly understand or imagine; that failures are inevitable; that restoration can be difficult; that recovery can take days, weeks or even months. We should all be prepared with supplies to care for our own needs, without power or water, for several days.

Here are some of the highlights from the editorial ...

Sometimes, huge and complicated systems (or even systems of systems) are brought down by fantastically tiny glitches that happen to strike at exactly the wrong place at the wrong time. [...] And so it was during the Northeast blackout of 2003, which cut electrical power for 55 million people in the United States and Ontario. That was eventually traced back to a combination of a computer glitch
and unusually hot weather causing power lines in Ohio to droop and make contact with tree branches that hadn’t been properly pruned. That was all it took to shut Toronto and New York City down.

[...] defending against this sort of thing is extraordinarily difficult. The systems that sustain our economy and civilization are too complex to be easily managed, or even understood by the trained professionals who run them. Returning to the 2003 blackout, the investigation into it revealed that even as the situation spiralled out of
control, utilities operators in Ohio had no appreciation that their electrical grid had become unstable and little understanding of how, as transmission wires overloaded and generators automatically shut down, the problem would ripple throughout their electrical system.

[...] Emergency preparedness is a good thing for governments to focus on. But [...] there’s ample evidence that governments are simply incapable of adequately tackling the complexities of disasters confined to even a single building. If something big ever happens — and sooner or later, something always does — we should all expect to be on our own for days, or longer. The systems we’ve built to support ourselves are just too complicated to repair any faster than that.

Stuck in traffic for 7 hours

Thousands Sat In Their Cars For 7 Hours Tuesday As Police Played Blame Game

On July 24, an shut down County Road 39 and Sunrise Highway in Southampton creating "sheer agony, bedlam and confusion" for hours for trapped motorists.  "I feel trapped,” one woman said. Another motorist said,
“I have children that are hungry, thirsty; 95 degrees in the car, and we have no gas and nowhere to go.”

Authorities passed the buck as Village police blamed the state police who in turn blamed the town police for closing the highway to clean oil and clear debris from a collision between a car and a garbage truck. Motorists were left in the dark and waiting, and waiting.

Nearly seven hours after the roads were closed, traffic began to ease.

When a reporter (who was stuck in the jam) questioned officials, would traffic be like this during a hurricane evacuation, the Suffolk County’s Office of Emergency Management responded, No way, in case of a real emergency "a coordinated effort would take place bringing all the response agencies together operating on one specific plan.”

[Now think back to Hurricane Katrina and the "coordinated" effort in Louisiana. If police cannot handle normal events, don't expect better performance during a crisis. ]

The Red Cross recommends that everyone be prepared for traffic events like this by having a go bag with you in your car. Keep snacks, water and a working phone in the car at all times and try to keep the gas tank near full.

Emergency Alert System Nationwide Test

"This is a test of the Emergency Broadcast System. The broadcasters of your area in voluntary cooperation with the FCC and federal, state and local authorities have developed this system to keep you informed in the event of an emergency."

This afternoon at 2pm (Eastern Standard Time) the Emergency Alert System, or EAS, will launch its first nationwide test. I'm sure you're familiar with the "this is only a test" that occurs periodically on TV and radio. The purpose of today's test is to assess the reliability and effectiveness of the system in alerting the entire public.

Today's test will involve only "broadcast radio and television, cable television, satellite radio and television and wireline video services" that participate in the EAS.  The Emergency Alert System transmits emergency alerts and warnings to the American public at the national, Tribal, state and local levels. A typical alert of a weather threat or child abduction makes sense at local and state levels. It's hard to imagine a national alert short of war or significant terrorist attack or major disaster such as an mega-earthquake or tsunami.

While local/state components of the EAS are tested on a weekly/monthly basis, there has never been an end-to-end nationwide test of the system. Only a complete, top-down test of the EAS can provide an appropriate diagnosis of the system's performance.

Although the nationwide EAS test may resemble the periodic monthly EAS tests that most consumers are familiar with, there will be some differences. The audio message will say "this is a test", however due to limitations of the EAS, the video test message may not be the same and may not indicate "this is a test" for everyone. In some cases there may be no image at all. FEMA and the FCC are working with organizations representing the deaf and hard of hearing to prepare that community for the nationwide test.

This test is being conducted on November 9 because this date is near the end of hurricane season and before the severe winter weather season begins. The 2 p.m. EST broadcast will minimize disruption during rush hours while ensuring that the test occurs during working hours across the country.

Bottom Line

The test will last approximately 30 seconds at 2pm EST, Nov 9, 2011.

Updated Nov 10

The test showed many areas with room for improvement. ABC News asks,
National Emergency Alert Test: Total Failure?

"Some people never saw an alert, others said the audio was distorted and there were even claims that Lady Gaga’s song “Paparazzi” was playing instead of the correct audio. On KABC-TV in Los Angeles, a screen flashed with the EAS graphic for several minutes, but there was no audio or information given.  ...
On the television feeds at ABC News’ headquarters in New York City, CNN ran a preview graphic saying, “Soon: Emergency Test Alert,” but the actual test never ran. Both ESPN and Fox News teased that the test was coming up, but it never happened. On MTV, it was afternoon programming as usual."

The FEMA administrator says, "I apologize for the disruptions that people went through. But we need to test things to find out what works and what doesn’t work.”

Free Preparedness Training

If you don't know where you are going, how can you expect to get there?
-Basil S. Walsh

Where there is no vision, the people perish.
-Proverbs 29:18

I recently got an e-mail from a person asking about Preparedness training.

Where to begin? There are so many different things to consider and it all depends on what you are Preparing for.

The FEMA site covering preparation for natural disasters is at http://www.ready.gov/
See also http://allreadystl.com/types-of-emergencies/ for a list of emergency prep documents by disaster type.

The LDS church has an excellent introduction to the basics at http://www.providentliving.org/

If you're worried about TEOTWAWKI (The end of the world as we know it) see http://www.survivalblog.com/ which covers surviving on your own - raising your own food, caring for medical needs, protecting yourself, etc.

You can receive free training by volunteering for the American Red Cross or a local CERT team:
http://www.redcross.org/  (drill down to Preparing & Training, then Preparedness Fast Facts).
http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/

FEMA offers free online training which are required for emergency workers, in particular IS100 and IS700:
http://training.fema.gov/IS/NIMS.asp

To learn more about 72-hour kits see my blog, 72-hour Kits, with links to resources.

Bottom Line

There is no shortage of information online. The hard part is knowing where to begin. Both the Red Cross and FEMA endorse:

Get a Kit, Make a Plan, Be Informed.

Which translates to

• make or buy 72-hour kits for your home, office and car. (see 72-hour Kits and Pet Go-Kits )
• make family plans for how you will respond to house fire and other emergencies. Where to evacuate to, whom to call, etc. (see Family Communication Plan)
• follow blogs like mine and check out the resources above. (see also FEMA tip of the week) 

Important Guidance on Helping Disaster Survivors

Yesterday FEMA sent the following email...

A second disaster threatens to overtake Joplin MO by way of a tidal wave of unsolicited goods (things like clothing, miscellaneous household items, mixed or perishable foodstuffs, diapers...) and volunteers who just show up to help.  Critical resources are being redirected from the important work of response and relief to managing what has become a crush of unneeded donated items.  Social networking sites are promoting collection drives while radio stations, small and large businesses, business and fraternal organizations and churches around the country fill semis with items that threaten to crowd warehouses and overwhelm distribution channels in the impacted area. 

Your help is urgently needed to stem the flow of unneeded goods and volunteers into Joplin.  You are encouraged to reach out to your employees, customers and other constituents on how those wanting to help can do so in a way that doesn't cause further impact, but rather aids in the response and recovery effort.

The following guidelines were developed by a coalition of government, voluntary agency and faith-based partners:

• Cash to a recognized voluntary agency is the single best way to help disaster survivors.  Cash doesn't need to be sorted, stored or distributed, and it allows the voluntary agency to  the donation towards the needs that most urgently need addressing.
• Visit http://sema.dps.mo.gov/recover/donations.asp to donate to the Missouri tornado recovery effort.
• For information on other ways to help go to: www.fema.gov/rebuild/recover/howtohelp.

Bottom Line

Two days ago I read a story praising four semi-trucks of supplies gathered via Facebook and Boy Scouts and delivered to Joplin. I thought about responding to that but didn't. During the aftermath of 9-11 authorities made it clear that they did not want random supplies pouring in. Ditto for Haitii after the earthquake. Send money instead.

In Monday's post I'll look at a status report from Joplin 36-hours after the tornado. Even then the Emergency Management Team was looking for a bigger warehouse to store unsolicited supplies.

Out of Stock

"I foresaw that, in time, it would please God to supply me with bread. And yet here I was perplexed again, for I neither knew how to grind or make meal of my corn, or indeed how to clean it and part it; nor, if made into meal, how to make bread of it; and if how to make it, yet I knew not how to bake it. These things being added to my desire of having a good quantity for store, and to secure a constant supply, I resolved not to taste any of this crop but to preserve it all for seed against the next season; and in the meantime to employ all my study and hours of working to accomplish this great work of providing myself with corn and bread. It might be truly said, that now I worked for my bread. I believe few people have thought much upon the strange multitude of little things necessary in the providing, producing, curing, dressing, making, and finishing this one article of bread." - Daniel Defoe (1661–1731), Robinson Crusoe

There are many things we take for granted and rely upon and never dream could possibly fail us. For example, access to your money in the bank. Last month, one of Australia's largest banks, National Australia Bank, encountered a corrupted computer file that jammed its payment system, hitting customers from a range of banks who rely on the NAB to process payments including Citibank and HSBC. Anxious NAB customers discovered online that their November paycheck has been "rubbed out" and their account credited with nothing. "Property deals were being put on hold, car sales suspended, wages not transferred, and direct debit payments for mortgages and bills stopped"

Or consider the Robinson Crusoe quote at top. What if your regional grocery stores ran out of bread (and most everything else) for a week or more? The post, The Truth About Your Local Grocery Store, describes the Just in Time (JIT) inventory system and its impact during disasters. "Twenty or even ten years ago we stored tons of merchandise in the back room and restocked throughout the day." But now stores carry just enough stock to cover normal demands and rely on supply trucks

Most stores get 2 to 5 trucks a day of some type of food.  Thus the store you shop at each day/week really only has about 1-½ to 2 days worth of food on the shelf any given day during normal conditions.  If an emergency happens they will be cleaned out in a matter of hours.  Then the question becomes how they will restock.  Remember roads may be closed.  The warehouse workers who normally load the trucks may have situations where they don’t show up to work due to taking care of their own family.  The same would be true with the truck drivers who would bring it to the stores and the folks who stock and run the local store as well.

If an emergency affects only a very local area then stores may get back in stock within 2-3 days on basic supplies. However if a large region is impacted, such as half a state, then the regional warehouses run out fast and supplies must be trucked in from great distances. Roads between the store and the warehouses may be impassible or damaged. Connecting bridges may have to pass inspection and be cleared as safe before trucks are allowed to cross.

Bottom Line

Regional warehouses stock common items for normal usage levels. They do not have stockpiles of chainsaws, gas cans, and other speciality items that everyone will want after a disaster. Even common items like batteries or bottled water will see an explosion of demand over normal levels that warehouses can not meet. A store may look well stocked with 60 propane bottles for camp stoves on the self but consider, an ice store or blizzard is announced with power outages likely so customers rush in and want 2 bottles each. On average big box stores see 3,000 to 6,000 customers each day. So if just 10% of customers need propane, that means 300 to 600 people need 600 to 1200 bottles with just 60 in stock. Only the first 30 customers will be satisfied assuming there are no hoarders that buy up 10 bottles or the entire stock. Picture your worst experience shopping for Black Friday specials and now ramp that up since the items are now "essential" as opposed to nice-to-have.

Consider also, how will you pay for things if you can find them? The ATMs are down, credit cards won't work so it's cash or personal checks (if the store will accept checks). How much cash do you have on hand to buy things in an emergency? Keep small bills like ones, tens and twenties (not $100s).  When stores reopen they may not have access to change from a bank as they normally do and will be unable or unwilling to give change for $100s.

Did you turn back your clock?

I don't mind going back to daylight saving time. With inflation, the hour will be the only thing I've saved all year. - Victor Borge

Daylight Savings Time ended this weekend, Sunday morning at 2am. So if you arrived at work an hour early, then you forgot to "Fall back" your clocks. Now if I could set the clock back one day, then I could have sent you this message from FEMA on time.

FEMA Encourages Americans to be Prepared as They Turn Their Clocks Back

With Daylight Saving Time coming to an end, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is encouraging Americans to take advantage of the November 7 time change as a reminder to make sure their families are prepared for a possible emergency. A few simple steps like checking smoke alarms, developing a family communications plan, and putting an emergency kit together can go a long way toward keeping families safe.

"As a nation, we can only be as prepared as our public - the most important member of our emergency management team.", says FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "I encourage everyone, as we fall back an hour, to also take a few simple steps to prepare their homes and loved ones for emergencies, including checking their smoke alarms and putting together an emergency kit."

Information on preparing for emergencies can be found at http://www.ready.gov/. Steps include developing a communications plan to ensure family members know how to get in touch with each other during an emergency, putting together an emergency kit, and staying informed of potential risks. It's important to remember that an emergency could be a large-scale catastrophic disaster, or a smaller-scale event like a car accident or house fire.

In addition to visiting Ready.gov, the United States Fire Administration is encouraging families to ensure their homes are equipped with working smoke alarms. A working smoke alarm significantly increases your chances of surviving a deadly home fire so it's important to test alarms regularly and keep them properly maintained. This includes checking the manufacture/expiration date on the label, replacing the batteries, and cleaning dust away from the slots so that smoke can enter freely.

For more information about home smoke alarms and fire sprinklers, please visit: www.usfa.dhs.gov/smokealarms.

FEMA's mission is to support our first responders and ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

Bottom Line

Did you notice that "make a kit" was included multiple times in the FEMA announcement. Hopefully you already have a well stocked house for emergencies and a kit for every car and work office. If that's the case then use the Daylight Saving Time changes as a reminder to refresh your kits. Who wants to eat a 10-year old snack bar or drink an ancient bottled water? Batteries lose charge if not replaced, or worse yet, corrode and leak acid. The spare underwear you packed may have rotted or the clothes you packed for kids no longer fit. Any financial and personal information you duplicated for your kit may be out of date.

Hurricane Katrina - 5 years later

Last week was the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and there have been many retrospectives of the good and bad that occurred. I particularly liked this one from Instapundit of lessons learned two weeks after the event.

1. Don’t build your city below sea level: Sooner or later it will flood.

2. Order evacuations early: even 48 hours advance notice is too late if you want to get everyone out.

3. Have — and use — a plan for evacuating people who can’t get out on their own: New Orleans apparently had a plan, but didn’t use it.

4. Have an emergency relocation plan: designated places far enough away to be safe, but close enough to evacuate people to.

5. Make critical infrastructure survivable: one of the key failures of Katrina was the collapse of the New Orleans Police Department’s radio system - they could not communicate after the hurricane.

6. Stock supplies and prepare facilities: The Superdome didn’t have adequate food, water, and toilet facilities, even though everybody knew it was going to be a shelter of last resort.

7. Be realistic: In the event of a major disaster, streets may be impassable and public services could be interrupted or taxed beyond their limits. Therefore, everyone must know how to provide for their own needs for an extended period of time.

8. Put somebody in charge: Right now it’s mostly state governors, but this needs to be made inescapably plain to everyone.

The webpage has more details and wonderful comments from readers.

Bottom Line

The media (and Democrats) love to blame Bush for the failures after Katrina. But look at the list above. None of these topics are Federal in scope. They are failures at the city, regional, and state level. That is where preparedness begins and where it will succeed or fail.

Emergency Response Politics

"It was chaos. There was nobody there, nobody in charge. And there was nobody giving even water. The children . . . they're all just in tears. There are sick people. We saw . . . people who are dying in front of you."
- CNN producer Kim Segal, describing the New Orleans Convention Center the day after Hurricane Katrina

[Note: the Convention Center was NOT an official shelter like the Superdome. Thousands of people just showed up and expected to be taken care of in a city that was official abandoned. The media handled this very poorly- looking for blame instead of helping evacuate the people to real shelters or notifying officials. TV anchor, Ted Koppel, would accuse FEMA of negligence for NOT learning about the crisis at the convention center from TV news reports.]

A reader of the SurvivalBlog.com objects to Firefighter Charles disaster scenario that I quoted in yesterday's post.

"Firefighter Charles's statement about FEMA's response times shows a lack of understanding of how the process works. In the event of another Hurricane Katrina type natural disaster, the following things have to happen, in the following order:

1. Disaster strikes
2. Local officials setup an incident command
3. Local Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs) are activated. The local emergency operations plan (EOP) is put into action.
4. Mutual aid agreements are activated. If the disaster goes beyond this, then...
5. State EOCs are activated. State EOPs are put into action.
6. The state activates it's mutual aid agreements.
7. If the situation is not contained, the Governor declares a State Emergency. He can then.....
8. Appeal to the President to declare the event a federal disaster - whether it is a Stafford Act event or not.
9. FEMA is then activated and ordered to head the rescue/relief efforts. The FBI is the lead investigative agency for any criminal acts, while the BATFE is the lead law enforcement agency for anything law enforcement related such as security, etc."

Now there are some good points here but I think the responder protests too much. The process above makes Firefighter Charles's point even stronger. Before super-slow FEMA can respond, one has to wait for local bureaucracy and then state bureaucracy to run its course. This rarely happens quickly and you can still expect 72-hrs or more to pass before resources like food and mass shelter are available.

In the case of Katrina the emergency response process was stalled by politics. The mayor of New Orleans ordered everyone to abandon his city with just 19 hours notice. The New Orleans official evacuation plan was not activated; school buses sat unused that could have helped evacuate residents. Those who could not leave were ordered to go to shelter of "last resort" without any provisions for food, water, security, or sanitary conditions. The Louisiana Superdome was designed to handle 800 as a shelter but 30,000 arrived.

Immediately after the hurricane had passed on Aug 30, 2005, Michael Chertoff, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA's boss, tried to take over the federal, state, and local operations, citing the National Response Plan. This was refused by Governor Blanco of Louisiana who indicated that her National Guard could manage. President Bush, a former governor of Texas, would not overrule a governor acting within her constitutional rights of state leadership.

Still it is wrong to say the Federal Government did nothing. Naval ships were moved to the Gulf before the hurricane hit and Coast Guard helicopters rescued 35,000 individuals from flood waters. Approximately 58,000 National Guard personnel were activated to deal with the storm's aftermath, with troops coming from all 50 states. The Department of Defense also activated volunteer members of the Civil Air Patrol.

700,000 people applied to FEMA for temporary housing. Tens of thousands of trailers were used but in some parishes the local council refused the trailers (not wanting to create a permanent squatters camp perhaps?). Also FEMA would only deploy trailers to regions with working utilities. (Think of the sewage problems that would result otherwise). For those without trailers, FEMA paid for hotel rooms. Five years after the disaster, there are still 260 families in hotels being paid by FEMA.

A Congressional investigation after Katrina found that FEMA and the Red Cross "did not have a logistics capacity sophisticated enough to fully support the massive number of Gulf coast victims." It placed responsibility for the disaster on all three levels of government.

Bottom Line

The National Incident Management System (NIMS) always puts the onus for response on local governments. However local responders NEVER have the resources for a major emergency. In Westchester county with a population of almost 1 million, the local Red Cross and CERT teams have cots for only 30,000 people. If there were mass evacuation from an accident at Indian Point Nuclear power plant, we'd have to rely on neighboring counties and neighboring states for shelter. That requires lots of high-level politics and lots of time.

The worst part of this is that many townships in Westchester, NY refuse to stockpile supplies and designate shelters. Once a town has a shelter plan, they are responsible to maintain it. For towns without a shelter plan, the responsibility goes upon Westchester county.

http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/09/waiting-for-cavalry.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/hurrican-ready.html

Texas Tornado

A reader of http://www.survivalblog.com/ submitted the following first-hand account of the tornado that hit Texas last weekend.
Here is a copy of the letter to survivalblog.com.

"I have been reading your blog for a while but until Saturday, I never saw how a disaster could unhinge some people so quickly and what lack of preparedness can do to some people.

I went to deliver a chainsaw, some gas and water to a relative in Yazoo City and what is usually a 45 minute drive took over 2 hours. Land lines and cell towers were down, and if you had a phone with a certain carrier, the service was very spotty. The traffic was bad and the roads into the town were blocked and we were turned away twice by a motley group of authorities but mostly State police. One local deputy was sympathetic and told us a way to get in the town that was 35 miles out of our way and we eventually got close to the north side of town and we had to drive over live power lines and swerve around transformers. We got to the entrance of town and there were two State troopers blocking the exit but we told them we were delivering some supplies and they let us through.

Eventually, we reached the home and there were trees and power lines everywhere. No power, no gas lines, homes and cars crushed, etc. One generator was being shared by neighbors and gas was being siphoned out of boats and cars to power it. There was one electric chainsaw that was plugged into the generator. Things to note were that the authorities were very stressed out and not experienced with this kind of devastation and there were many people who tried to get to loved ones or family that couldn't get past the road blocks. Some people just left their cars on the sides of the road and were allowed to walk into town. One lady drove around the roadblock and was chased by a cop car.

There were people panicking and the Red Cross got there and all they were doing was handing out water bottles. The power company was only responsible for getting the trees off the power lines. You could see people just staring at their crushed homes and houses wondering what to do. There were cops on four wheeler ATVs just riding around and eventually the National Guard showed up but they were just driving around.

Some lessons learned:
* No one is getting into town right after a disaster
* Have a big chainsaw and make sure there are no trees in your yard
* Have a four-wheeler and a 15 foot trailer to haul out pieces of debris from your home/yard
* Have a siphon and a generator
* Know how to turn off your gas in your home because live wires and natural gas don't mix
* Know beforehand that the authorities are not there to help you but to maintain order and the power company is not going to cut down that tree that is now in your dining room.
* Brick homes fare better than stick ones
* Anticipate that neighbors are going to freak out and run around like chickens with their heads cut off and try to do silly things like get in their cars and drive over debris in the road and get stuck and pop their tires.
* Have gloves and chains in your truck and keep a full tank of gas at all times. Some people ran out of gas in the traffic.
* Realize that tensions are going to be high and seeing weird things like one group of people having a barbecue and getting drunk and across the street one family was sitting on the lawn waiting for help is a recipe for a bad situation. I saw a kid in the road trying to flag us down and there were some guys leaning up against a house a bit out of sight. We just drove around him. I couldn't believe that it was already getting strange and the tornado was only a few hours earlier.

So in a nutshell, that was my experience and one more thing, the tornado hit so fast that the siren didn't give enough warning. And what was worse, people are conditioned to think the siren means thunderstorm or it could be a test or something else. So no one was prepared until they heard the freight train sound and with no one having basements in Mississippi, there isn't really a safe place to be."

Bottom Line

Any “Disaster” will cause chaos by definition. Without the chaos, the natural event would be just a bad storm. Expect confusion, wrong advice, ill prepared officials, and inoperative infrastructure. You must be able to support yourself for at least three days without water and electricity.

I have a friend who is an EMT. After a major storm in our town that brought down huge branches everywhere and even a few trees, an ambulance needed two hours to deliver a heart attack victim to the hospital. In some places police prevented the ambulance from traveling closed roads. The family of the victim is suing because they encountered fewer road closures and arrived first at the hospital.

Social Networking after the Haiti earthquake

“I'm surprised at how much Facebook.com has burrowed itself into real life along with instant messaging, text messaging and e-mail, ... It's another reason to be on the Net."-Chris Hughes, facebook co-founder

Today I recommend the article, The tale of an Android phone in the earthquake in Haiti. The web site is French but this article is in English.

As is common after a disaster, phone lines (both land and Cell) may be out of service or overloaded.

"In the first few hours that followed the earthquake, mobile service was completely disrupted. It was almost impossible to place a call, due to the combination of the damages on the cellular networks and the spike in phone calls."

But texting often works...

"However, on some networks, SMS service was still available. People stuck under
rubbles started texting to their friends and family (in Haiti and abroad) to
tell them they were still alive and needed help."

The next part really caught my eye,

Those friends and family, not knowing what to do, started posting these SOS messages on their social networks, mainly on Facebook.

Facebook is an amazing tool for linking people together and getting your message to friends. In the article, the Author in Haiti was able to view Facebook on his Android phone, see the SOS messages, and forward the information to rescue workers who were delighted to know where the people were buried. Lives were saved.

Bottom Line

It pays to be connected with a social network. Check out facebook.

Update

I'd never heard of Android before this article. It is a Google smartphone running on Linux. For a comparison of smartphones, check out http://gizmodo.com/5472971/all-the-smartphone-oses-a-beginners-guide/

Notify NYC Citywide Program

New York, New York
A hell of a town,
The Bronx is up and the Battery's down.
The People ride in a hole in the ground.
– lyrics to “New York, New York”

If you live or work in NYC, there is a new program for emergency alerts that completed its pilot phase on May 18 and has gone live.

“Notify NYC is a program designed to enhance New York City’s emergency public communication systems and streamline the delivery of important public information. This multi-agency initiative has included upgrades to the City’s existing Emergency Alert System (EAS), the development of the Emergency Television and Radio (ETVR) briefing sites and the development of an emergency Public Information Plan, which is managed by OEM to improve the coordination of public information during major emergencies. Building on the success of 311 and NYC.GOV, Notify NYC will integrate information and technology services for multiple City agencies, and provide the public with a one-stop destination for emergency and non-emergency notifications.” [NotifyNYC]

At the registration site, www.nyc.gov/notifynyc, you can elect to receive email, text messages or phone calls for Emergency Alerts, Emergency Parking Suspension, Public Health Notifications, School Notifications, and Significant Events.

Bottom Line

I encountered one glitch during registration. It asked for a voluntary home address with a mandatory zip code but then rejected my zip as being outside of NYC. In the site’s FAQ they state:

“Registration is open to everyone, but you will have to provide a valid NYC zip code that will indicate the area in which you are interested. You may want to register if you are a frequent visitor or if you are responsible for a friend or family member who lives in New York City.”

“You can add up to five (5) city addresses to your account. You can also add, remove, and edit these locations through your account settings by logging in.”

False Alert with Swine Flu?

“With Mexico saying the worst may be over and the new H1N1 virus starting to look more like a seasonal flu strain in the United States and elsewhere, critics are going to start asking if public health officials overreacted to the outbreak.” – Reuters news

Again I hate to bash the media but it seems that most TV/Radio/Newspaper coverage has only two modes: “full coverage emergency” and “not worth discussing”. In just over a week swine flu has gone from “The End of the World as We Know It” to “never mind, just a normal flu, nothing to worry about”.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Was this a false alert like the Swine Flu of 1976?
No. The President Ford swine flu was found on one military base in NJ and did not spread. In contrast, the swine flu of 2009 is very contagious. Thousands of cases in Mexico and within a few weeks it had spread to over a dozen countries around the world. The World Health Organization rightly classified this as phase 5 (Pandemic Imminent).

Is this swine flu dangerous?
Yes. One thing I’ve learned from this emergency “drill” is that “normal” flu is dangerous. How did it happen that 2000 yearly flu deaths in NYC and 36,000 deaths annually in the US are considered “normal”? Consider the mothers protesting against the Iraq War and the deaths of their sons. In six years since 2003 the numbers of US casualties has been 4284. During the same period there were 216,000 flu deaths, 50 times the number of soldiers killed. Why don’t we see mothers protesting for better flu drugs?

Was it wrong to close schools, etc?
No. Consider the game of Russian roulette. Is it safe because 5 times out of six, nothing happens? When this flu appeared it spread fast and its potential was unknown. Suppose we treated it as “normal” and allowed it to spread and THEN discovered it was a killer. By that point the horse is out of the barn and there is no going back. The right time to stop a potential pandemic is at the beginning.

Is this swine flu just a “normal” flu?
Unknown. The death toll in Mexico was overstated with many sicknesses related deaths misclassified as swine flu. Scientists now think this is NOT a “killer” flu but it may be stronger than your average flu. The medical studies are still being done to exactly classify this flu strain.

Won’t my flu shot protect me? What about the drug Tamiflu?
No. Flu shots work by giving you a small sample of dead flu viruses so your body can learn the shape and create antibodies before the live virus invades. The Mexican swine flu is a new variant that no one is yet protected against. There are also some reports from Mexico of doctors & nurses who had taken Tamiflu but still caught the flu. For swine flu Tamiflu may be better at relieving symptoms than in prevention.

Bottom Line

Is the danger over?
As stated in the article, Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics, “In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918”.

Flu viruses are constantly evolving and changing – hence the need for a new flu shot each year. A global killer virus needs two things – the ability to spread and the ability to kill. The current swine flu shows it has the ability to spread quickly. As thousands or millions or even billions of people become infected, the likelihood of mutations increase. Most mutations will be harmless. But it takes just one bad roll of the cosmic dice to change swine flu into a deadly & contagious virus. We can hope this won’t happen but we should prepare now in case it does.

Mayday!

“Isn't it appropriate that the month of the tax begins with April Fool's Day and ends with cries of "May Day"?” - anon

May 1, approximately halfway between the spring equinox and summer solstice, is a day of celebrations in many countries under the name “May Day”. This got me thinking about the distress call “Mayday!” and if there is any connection. The answer is – no.

Made official in 1948, “Mayday” it is an anglicizing of the French m'aidez, 'help me' or venez m'aider meaning come help me. The call is given three times in a row ("Mayday Mayday Mayday") to prevent mistakes or misunderstanding. Mayday is used ONLY to signal a life-threatening emergency like a boat on fire or sinking or a plane about to crash! For less urgent needs, like being stranded at sea without gas, use the call “Coastguard, Coastguard, Coastguard”.

A Mayday call indicates that a vessel, aircraft, vehicle, or person is in grave and imminent danger and requires immediate assistance. Mayday calls can be made on any frequency, and once made, no other radio traffic on that frequency is permitted except to assist in the emergency. Making a false Mayday call is a criminal act in many countries. In the U.S. it is a federal crime carrying sanctions of up to six years imprisonment, and a fine of $250,000.

When making a valid Mayday call, indicate the name of your boat/aircraft, your location, the nature of the emergency and the number of people involved. Wikipedia recommends this as a typical message:

“MAYDAY, MAYDAY, MAYDAY, this is [boatname], [boatname], [boatname]. Position 54 25 North 016 33 West. My boat is on fire and sinking. I require immediate assistance. 4 people on board. We are evacuating to a lifeboat. OVER."

Bottom Line

Anyone hearing a Mayday call should respond to save lives. If you are distant from the scene or unable to respond, you can still help by relaying the Mayday call if there has been no official reply within two minutes of the distress call. It may be that the Coastguard is out of range and didn’t hear the call from the sinking boat but will hear you. A Mayday relay call should use the callsign of the transmitting vessel but give the name and position of the Mayday vessel.

“MAYDAY, MAYDAY, MAYDAY, this is [boatname], [boatname], [boatname] relaying a Mayday from [otherboat], position 54 25 North 016 33 West. [otherboat] boat is on fire and sinking and requires immediate assistance. 4 people on board. [otherboat] is evacuating to a lifeboat. OVER."

Ready for Crisis website

“You can't fake quality any more than you can fake a good meal.” - William S. Burroughs

The Canadian Red Cross has created a new Ready for Crisis website for voluntary organizations that provide important social services.

“We found millions of vulnerable Canadians depend on voluntary sector services for their daily survival, but many of those organizations [40%] have no disaster plans in place to protect their service delivery in times of crisis." says Don Shropshire, National Director of Disaster Management at the Canadian Red Cross. "Our research indicated the voluntary sector is a large part of the solution but
it needs help."

Imagine a senior citizen who is dependent on “Meals on Wheels” for their daily bread. But without warning, for many days, no food will be delivered while the roads are closed due to a blizzard, flood, collapsed bridge, etc. It is wishful thinking to believe the Red Cross will come to their rescue without any notification.

- The Red Cross may not know this person is starving because others in the same neighborhood evacuated or are self-sustaining.

And even if notified, there may be nothing the Red Cross can do.

- Road closures impact the Red Cross also. The Red Cross Emergency Vehicles have strict rules AGAINST entering flooded or hazardous areas.

Hence the Red Cross is asking organizations like Meals on Wheels to draw up advance plans for emergency scenarios. Who will the org call for help? Who can fill the gap? Which clients are at the greatest risk?

Consider the impact of a prolonged power outage.

- Food in refrigerators must be tossed out. Can a food bank, soup kitchen, Meals on Wheels, continue to feed its clients with non-perishable foods?
- Will these meal orgs have a working kitchen without power? Anyone got a manual can opener to open those #10 size cans? Is there back up lighting so the workers can assemble meals?
- The computers are down so no google maps or calling up the client case files. Are there print copies of maps and addresses of where the food must be delivered?

Bottom Line

I hope organizations in all countries take advantage of the Ready for Crisis website to become better prepared. As was seen with Katrina, many community emergency plans forget to account for those who cannot save themselves. It’s easy for a mayor to broadcast TV and radio warnings to evacuate but what if you’re too poor to own a car or too weak and frail to drive one? Who will save these people after their caseworkers, the bus drivers, taxi drivers, and everyone else able-bodied has fled? When a hospital must evaucate, who will move the patients?

Airplane Evacuations

“Evacuating a plane can be quite perilous—whether you're a real passenger or a volunteer in a certification test. A government study of airline evacuation drills in the 1970s and 1980s found that almost 5 percent of the participants get hurt.“ – Slate

Who would have thought that 1 out of 20 passengers could be injured just getting off an airplane during an emergency evacuation? But if you think about, getting off a crowded airplane is never easy even during normal days. Now add darkness, smoke, panicking people, luggage everywhere, inflated life vests, and you have a recipe for chaos.

You also may not have much time. The FAA requires that the airplane's maximum capacity of passengers and crewmembers can evacuate the plane in less than 90 seconds—the time it takes a fire to engulf a standard cabin.

Can you guess the main cause of injury during plane evacuations?

It is the inflatable slide that can be up to 26 feet off the ground. The most common injury is “slide burn” when bare skin is scraped raw going down the slide. The next danger is “hitting” the ground when the “slow down” strips fail at the base of the slide. People have broken ankles and legs from reaching the ground too fast. The worst injury occurred when a volunteer tester fell off the top of the slide and hit the pavement head first.

All the above points are occurred when a Paris flight to Toronto made a hard emergency landing, caught fire and managed to evacuate everyone in less than two minutes, 75% got off within 52 seconds

Bags were “flying down” from the overhead bins, and the plane was coming apart…. “Stewardesses started pushing everyone out,”

People near the fire at the rear of the plane panicked.

“People were tripping over each other, climbing over the seats to get to the
exit”

At a front door there was no chute to slide down and the drop was about 12 feet. A second door had a damaged chute but it worked.

“I jumped and fell onto some people,” a passenger said, “Some people broke their
arms or legs.”

Bottom Line

Stay calm and be careful when evacuating a plane and you should be OK.

“There is this myth out there that says if you’re involved in a catastrophic aircraft accident the odds [of survival] are extremely low. That’s inaccurate. The odds are extremely high,” said Mark Rosenker, the acting chairman of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

See also this YouTube of 777 evacuation test

PS - this post is appearing a day early. I accidently entered 08 for the year and it is not so easy to unpublish an article once published.

Lessons from the Minnesota Bridge Collapse

“The hardest thing in life is to know which bridge to cross and which to burn” - David Russell (Scottish classical Guitarist)

The Minnesota Monthly has an excellently written article, 110 Minutes, on the rescue attempt following the bridge collapse on August 1, 2007. I highly recommend reading all four web pages.

Like all disasters there were heroes who saved lives, mistakes that occurred, and confusion on the scene. But this story has a mostly happy ending - only 13 lives were lost when a bridge full of commuting cars crashed into the river. All survivors were rescued within 110 minutes.

The citizens of Minneapolis are fortunate that the Fire Chief, Rocco Forte, "dragged" the mayor and 80 disaster leaders to a four-day FEMA exercise prior to the collapse. “We did quite poorly,” said Forte.

From the workshop disaster planners learned the value of developing relationships with adjacent counties, cities and agencies and discovered they needed to invest in emergency management response. Forte was put in charge of a new Department of Emergency Preparedness and obtained grant money from Homeland Security. The city spent more than $25 million updating its telecommunications system, nearly $20 million on new 800 MHz radios and about $8 million on special operations teams.

During the bridge collapse crisis 100 people filled the recently created Emergency Operations Center (EOC).

Problems and tasks were listed on whiteboards on the walls of the room; there were so many that someone took a picture of the boards every two hours before it was wiped and reused. The public-works department was tapped for lights and generators, port-a-potties, and a crane on a barge. The Police Athletic League bus was commandeered to ship officers to the site. Someone from the finance department started tallying the costs almost immediately, tracking every cent the feds might reimburse.

Bottom Line

Disaster rescue is complicated. The article shows that one man, like Rick Kraft, can do a lot on the scene, but when people are trapped inside crushed cars, heavy equipment is needed. Dispatchers need to ensure the right equipment and officials (fire/police/EMT) are sent to the correct scene in the proper numbers. Police on the site need to keep the roadways free for emergency vehicles and keep a gawking public away. When rescue lasts hours or days then logistics is needed for meals, supplies, sleeping cots, porta-potties, and so on.

Follow the example of Fire Chief Forte and drag your local leaders to disaster training classes.

Unmet Need for Information during Emergencies

"Difficulties are meant to rouse, not discourage" - William Ellery Channing

One thing you can count on during an emergency is terrible communication. During the NorthEast Blackout of 2003 I listened to a radio in my office in New York City to learn if Metro North train service was restored. I slept at the office and again waited the next morning for news of trains running. My wife was more reasonable. She called to say her friend could see trains moving with people. She instructed me to forget the "official reports" and get my butt to Grand Central Terminal and take any train leaving the city. I did and found that although GCT had no power, diesel trains were running and conductors were informing people which trains went where via megaphones. I got home but not with any help from news reports.

On another occasion I played a victim in a drill for a Sarin gas attack. Boom, the pretend bomb goes off. Then we wait and wait. Firemen come and go. Two persons in Bio hazard gear peak in a window but never say a word. Two hours after the bomb we can see shelters being raised and much activity but no one has gives the victims any instructions except for "say put". In real life those of us who could move would have fled the scene by then.

"Disaster victims need information about their options in order to take any meaningful choices about their future, " according to a recent article by the BBC World Trust Service. As the physical and psychological needs of disaster survivors change over time, information needs change also.

First Stage - Survival

1. Victims need to know what happened
2. How to get immediate survival needs satisfied
3. What has happened to family members and friends?

Providing these answers decreases panic and increases survivor capacity to take action. But the infrastructure for radio, television, and telephones has been destroyed. So how do you get information to those who need it most??? There are no easy answers.

Second Stage - Short Term Relief

1. Survivors look for availability of fresh water, shelter, and medical attention.
2. Expectation management is vital as relief may not fulfill needs as quickly as desired.

People who have knowledge of issues such as when and where food will be distributed, the amount of allocated rations per person, and how to cook the rations to maximise nutritional value, can help manage logistics, reduce corruption, and improve health and mental well being.

Third Stage - Long Term Recovery

1. People want to know what relief services are available and to what they are entitled.
2. They need to know about recently implemented policies that affect them, such as housing reconstruction guidelines or victim compensation policies.
3. What are the government and relief agencies accountable and responsible for?
4. Safety instructions (boil your water, etc) must be communicated.

Unmet communication needs can lead to further trauma and stress. "In particular, psychosocial studies increasingly note that information deprivation actually causes stress and exacerbates trauma..."

Bottom Line

Information is essential to give people "a sense of power and purpose over their own destiny" during a disaster. It is a "critical issue." The providing of information becomes a form of aid and deserves prioritisation through the development of effective and properly resourced communication strategies. If you are an Emergency Manager please read the BBC report for communication recommendations.

Leadership?

"It became clear that people have erroneously come to falsely mistake management for leadership." - James W Breckenridge

During hurricane Katrina the media and the public did a lot of finger pointing at FEMA and President Bush. What was overlooked and misunderstood was the role each had to play during the emergency. FEMA has a management role. It exists to organize, give advice, train, but not to lead.

“Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.” - Peter Drucker, management advisor

President Bush was criticized for not leading. Although we typically think of the president as the leader of our nation, we tend to forget that we are the United STATES of America and that state governors have a lot of local authority. In the case of hurricane Katrina, the first leaders responsible were the local Mayors. Sadly the mayor of New Orleans and his staff fled the city, did not implement the city's emergency plan, and yelled loudly for the Federal government to save everyone. However, mayors do not have the authority to request federal resources. This is the right and responsibility of the state governor and during Katrina the Louisiana governor delayed asking for help for many days. Technically Bush and FEMA were not legally allowed to help until officially asked to by the governor. This is known as state rights and as a former governor of Texas, George Bush understands state rights.

Bottom Line
During emergencies, both leaders and managers are needed. Managers must ensure good logistics by organizing the supplies, people and resources. Leaders are needed to inspire the people, to issue orders, and make major decisions.

"One of the tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency." - Arnold Glasgow

Great leaders will hire great managers to take care of the details. Great leaders will also understand the limits of their authority and how to work with and cooperate with other leaders.

Finger Pointing

"After any crisis ... there is a lot of finger-pointing. Any tips on how to help my team avoid finger-pointing when we face a crisis?" - Harvard Business Publishing

Today I recommend the article, 7 Steps to Stop Finger-Pointing in a Crisis by the Harvard Business School. The advice includes

• "help more, judge less"
• Focus on the future, not a past that cannot be changed
• Everyone should take responsibility for their own behavior
• Ask, "What can I learn from this crisis?"
• Avoid speaking when angry or out of control

I was inspired to talk about this topic after reading the article, Death, destruction, darkness strike Gulf Coast. The writer describes the finger pointing between FEMA and local government after hurricane Ike:

FEMA came under fire as several dozen trucks filled with water and food were not set up in surrounding communities a day after the storm passed. While taking criticism reminiscent of Katrina, FEMA officials immediately pointed a finger at someone else.

In a press conference at FEMA headquarters, Homeland Security
Secretary Michael Chertoff faulted state officials for handing his department the “unexpected challenge” of preparing distribution points (PODs) in addition to delivering supplies.

But state officials said it was the duty of local government, which came as a surprise to Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. “If I could have known something 18-hours-ago, we
could have made plans to pick up something a lot quicker, that’s a fact,” a frustrated Mayor White said in a press briefing on Sept. 14.

Confusion between relief agencies is normal after emergencies. At best once a year emergency response organizations get together to role play a disaster and practice inter-agency communication.

BOTTOM LINE

Don't count on the government save you; save yourself. It was families without survival kits in their homes or apartments that anxiously awaited the word about points of distribution (PODS) after the horror of Hurricane Ike.

If you are self reliant you won't be in this situation of this person...

"It is a damn shame that they’ve been sitting up arguing like children about whose fault it is when my family and others were in serious need. I was standing in line for nearly six hours waiting for water and food to arrive at one site.” - FinalCall.com

See CERT for details on personal emergency training.