Extreme Weather Preparation

Here's some extreme weather advice from USA.gov.

Summertime can bring a range of weather challenges and potential dangers. Some of these threats can occur with little warning, so do what you can to prepare by assembling an emergency kit and forming a plan of action. Find out what you should do if faced with the following weather dangers:

Lightning: In the U.S., lightning kills more people each year than tornadoes and hurricanes. If you can hear thunder, you are within striking distance and should seek shelter in an enclosed building or vehicle. While indoors, don't use a corded phone, a computer or other electrical appliances; and avoid contact with plumbing (don't shower, wash hands, do laundry, etc.). Learn more about lightning safety and get tips on what to do if you're outdoors during a thunderstorm.

Floods: If you have time, move essential items to an upper floor. Do not touch electrical equipment if you are wet or standing in water. Do not walk through moving water that is six inches or higher. If floodwaters rise around your car, abandon the car and move to higher ground. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a flood.

Hurricanes: If you can't evacuate, get inside and secure external and internal doors. Stay away from windows and doors and take refuge in a small interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a hurricane.

Tornadoes: Storm cellars and basements are the safest locations, but if they aren't available, go to an interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level. Stay away from windows, doors, outside walls, and corners. If you are in a trailer or mobile home, go to a sturdy, nearby building. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a tornado.

Extreme Heat: Stay indoors as much as possible. Consider spending the hottest part of the day in an air-conditioned public building, such as a library or shopping mall. Never leave children or pets alone in vehicles. Learn more about what to do in extreme heat.

Wildfires: If your home is threatened by a wildfire, you must evacuate. If you have time, bring an emergency kit that includes copies of important documents. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after a wildfire.

Earthquakes: If you are indoors, stay away from windows, doors, and outside walls and get under a sturdy table or desk. If you are outside, keep away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires. If you're in a moving vehicle, safely stop the vehicle in an open area and stay inside. Learn more about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake.

More Derecho lessons...

As described yesterday, at the end of June the Eastern states were hit by a rare summer storm of strong, sustained winds blowing from the West. It produced hurricane force winds that gusted as high as 91 miles per hour in Fort Wayne, Indiana. Trees fell everywhere and the damage was massive. Here's some comments from a reader of SurvivalBlog.com

We here in West Virginia are used to disasters such as floods but the mountains tend to shield us from tornados and high winds are rare. Within an hour span[,] power was knocked out to 50 of the 55 counties in the state. The towers of major transmission lines were twisted wrecks.   [...]

· Gasoline was gone within 24 hours. Lines were just like the 1970s fuel embargo.
· Ice became the chief commodity and was in short supply or no supply.
· Water was out for most people at least for the first two days.
· Most big box stores and gas stations were up on generator power by day three.
· A new shipment of 250 generators was sold in a few hours. [...] 

 With all traffic lights out it was hectic but for the most part people were safe and courteous.  [...]  

The local radio station stepped up to the plate and suspended normal programming and went live 24 hours on generator with news and call-ins giving information. The unpreparedness of some of the call-ins was instructive. On the second day several were screaming for FEMA to arrive.

Was the 20th century abnormally normal?

FuturePundit makes an interesting observation that the 20th century may have been abnormally quiet in regard to mega-disasters. It's the best documented century in human history with photos, movies, radio, TV, blogs, etc and when we think of "history" our window is often the past 100 years. But go back another 100 years to the 19th century.

The first half of the 19th century was still in the grip of the Little Ice Age, a period of unusual cold lasting 500 years from 1350 to 1850. When we think of snowy Victorian Christmas with ice skaters on frozen rivers, that was the influence of the Little Ice Age.

In 1811 there was an 8.1-8.2 earthquake on the New Madrid fault in middle America which caused the Mississippi River to temporarily flow backwards and permanently changed its course. A repeat of this today would be devastating.

In 1884 New York City had a 5.5 quake and is due for a repeat. Los Angeles and Tokyo are also past due for major quakes like the 1875 SoCal quake of magnitude 7.9.

How about a big bang like Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815? The eruption further cooled the planet so that snow fell in New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces in June. It caused the biggest famine of the 19th century.

In 1859 there was a massive solar eruption that caused intense magnetic fields on Earth. An equivalent today could fry our electronics and power grid.

The 1900s were extremely tame in comparison.

Space Weather?

On FEMA's preparedness website, www.ready.gov/natural-disasters, you'll find information about "typical" disasters like Tornadoes and Hurricanes and even some rare events like Volcanoes. But there is also a category for "Space Weather". What is that?

Our Sun has been very quiet for the past few decades but it has a history of extreme outbursts of solar flares. The strongest solar storm on record is the Carrington Event of 1859 which electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire. Northern Lights were visible as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. Another significant space weather event took place in 1989 which caused a power blackout in Canada that left six million people without electricity for nine hours. This flare also melted some power transformers in New Jersey.

More recently there was a flare-up in 1989 but NASA reports this was nowhere near the same scale as the Carrington event.

We have been very lucky in our digital age that there's been no massive solar storm. Imagine TVs and computers bursting into flame from power surges. The damage will be massive.

Solar Flare

You are my sunshine
My only sunshine
You make me happy
When skies are grey
-song

Today I'll let a photo do most of the talking. This incredible solar flare on June 7 was ranked as an M2.5, or medium-sized flare, in terms of energy. Remember that the Earth would fit inside a lowercase o in this picture and then imagine what a massive solar flare would be like.

Bottom Line

Civilization is more fragile than we know.

Out of Stock

"I foresaw that, in time, it would please God to supply me with bread. And yet here I was perplexed again, for I neither knew how to grind or make meal of my corn, or indeed how to clean it and part it; nor, if made into meal, how to make bread of it; and if how to make it, yet I knew not how to bake it. These things being added to my desire of having a good quantity for store, and to secure a constant supply, I resolved not to taste any of this crop but to preserve it all for seed against the next season; and in the meantime to employ all my study and hours of working to accomplish this great work of providing myself with corn and bread. It might be truly said, that now I worked for my bread. I believe few people have thought much upon the strange multitude of little things necessary in the providing, producing, curing, dressing, making, and finishing this one article of bread." - Daniel Defoe (1661–1731), Robinson Crusoe

There are many things we take for granted and rely upon and never dream could possibly fail us. For example, access to your money in the bank. Last month, one of Australia's largest banks, National Australia Bank, encountered a corrupted computer file that jammed its payment system, hitting customers from a range of banks who rely on the NAB to process payments including Citibank and HSBC. Anxious NAB customers discovered online that their November paycheck has been "rubbed out" and their account credited with nothing. "Property deals were being put on hold, car sales suspended, wages not transferred, and direct debit payments for mortgages and bills stopped"

Or consider the Robinson Crusoe quote at top. What if your regional grocery stores ran out of bread (and most everything else) for a week or more? The post, The Truth About Your Local Grocery Store, describes the Just in Time (JIT) inventory system and its impact during disasters. "Twenty or even ten years ago we stored tons of merchandise in the back room and restocked throughout the day." But now stores carry just enough stock to cover normal demands and rely on supply trucks

Most stores get 2 to 5 trucks a day of some type of food.  Thus the store you shop at each day/week really only has about 1-½ to 2 days worth of food on the shelf any given day during normal conditions.  If an emergency happens they will be cleaned out in a matter of hours.  Then the question becomes how they will restock.  Remember roads may be closed.  The warehouse workers who normally load the trucks may have situations where they don’t show up to work due to taking care of their own family.  The same would be true with the truck drivers who would bring it to the stores and the folks who stock and run the local store as well.

If an emergency affects only a very local area then stores may get back in stock within 2-3 days on basic supplies. However if a large region is impacted, such as half a state, then the regional warehouses run out fast and supplies must be trucked in from great distances. Roads between the store and the warehouses may be impassible or damaged. Connecting bridges may have to pass inspection and be cleared as safe before trucks are allowed to cross.

Bottom Line

Regional warehouses stock common items for normal usage levels. They do not have stockpiles of chainsaws, gas cans, and other speciality items that everyone will want after a disaster. Even common items like batteries or bottled water will see an explosion of demand over normal levels that warehouses can not meet. A store may look well stocked with 60 propane bottles for camp stoves on the self but consider, an ice store or blizzard is announced with power outages likely so customers rush in and want 2 bottles each. On average big box stores see 3,000 to 6,000 customers each day. So if just 10% of customers need propane, that means 300 to 600 people need 600 to 1200 bottles with just 60 in stock. Only the first 30 customers will be satisfied assuming there are no hoarders that buy up 10 bottles or the entire stock. Picture your worst experience shopping for Black Friday specials and now ramp that up since the items are now "essential" as opposed to nice-to-have.

Consider also, how will you pay for things if you can find them? The ATMs are down, credit cards won't work so it's cash or personal checks (if the store will accept checks). How much cash do you have on hand to buy things in an emergency? Keep small bills like ones, tens and twenties (not $100s).  When stores reopen they may not have access to change from a bank as they normally do and will be unable or unwilling to give change for $100s.

Texas Tornado

A reader of http://www.survivalblog.com/ submitted the following first-hand account of the tornado that hit Texas last weekend.
Here is a copy of the letter to survivalblog.com.

"I have been reading your blog for a while but until Saturday, I never saw how a disaster could unhinge some people so quickly and what lack of preparedness can do to some people.

I went to deliver a chainsaw, some gas and water to a relative in Yazoo City and what is usually a 45 minute drive took over 2 hours. Land lines and cell towers were down, and if you had a phone with a certain carrier, the service was very spotty. The traffic was bad and the roads into the town were blocked and we were turned away twice by a motley group of authorities but mostly State police. One local deputy was sympathetic and told us a way to get in the town that was 35 miles out of our way and we eventually got close to the north side of town and we had to drive over live power lines and swerve around transformers. We got to the entrance of town and there were two State troopers blocking the exit but we told them we were delivering some supplies and they let us through.

Eventually, we reached the home and there were trees and power lines everywhere. No power, no gas lines, homes and cars crushed, etc. One generator was being shared by neighbors and gas was being siphoned out of boats and cars to power it. There was one electric chainsaw that was plugged into the generator. Things to note were that the authorities were very stressed out and not experienced with this kind of devastation and there were many people who tried to get to loved ones or family that couldn't get past the road blocks. Some people just left their cars on the sides of the road and were allowed to walk into town. One lady drove around the roadblock and was chased by a cop car.

There were people panicking and the Red Cross got there and all they were doing was handing out water bottles. The power company was only responsible for getting the trees off the power lines. You could see people just staring at their crushed homes and houses wondering what to do. There were cops on four wheeler ATVs just riding around and eventually the National Guard showed up but they were just driving around.

Some lessons learned:
* No one is getting into town right after a disaster
* Have a big chainsaw and make sure there are no trees in your yard
* Have a four-wheeler and a 15 foot trailer to haul out pieces of debris from your home/yard
* Have a siphon and a generator
* Know how to turn off your gas in your home because live wires and natural gas don't mix
* Know beforehand that the authorities are not there to help you but to maintain order and the power company is not going to cut down that tree that is now in your dining room.
* Brick homes fare better than stick ones
* Anticipate that neighbors are going to freak out and run around like chickens with their heads cut off and try to do silly things like get in their cars and drive over debris in the road and get stuck and pop their tires.
* Have gloves and chains in your truck and keep a full tank of gas at all times. Some people ran out of gas in the traffic.
* Realize that tensions are going to be high and seeing weird things like one group of people having a barbecue and getting drunk and across the street one family was sitting on the lawn waiting for help is a recipe for a bad situation. I saw a kid in the road trying to flag us down and there were some guys leaning up against a house a bit out of sight. We just drove around him. I couldn't believe that it was already getting strange and the tornado was only a few hours earlier.

So in a nutshell, that was my experience and one more thing, the tornado hit so fast that the siren didn't give enough warning. And what was worse, people are conditioned to think the siren means thunderstorm or it could be a test or something else. So no one was prepared until they heard the freight train sound and with no one having basements in Mississippi, there isn't really a safe place to be."

Bottom Line

Any “Disaster” will cause chaos by definition. Without the chaos, the natural event would be just a bad storm. Expect confusion, wrong advice, ill prepared officials, and inoperative infrastructure. You must be able to support yourself for at least three days without water and electricity.

I have a friend who is an EMT. After a major storm in our town that brought down huge branches everywhere and even a few trees, an ambulance needed two hours to deliver a heart attack victim to the hospital. In some places police prevented the ambulance from traveling closed roads. The family of the victim is suing because they encountered fewer road closures and arrived first at the hospital.

Volcanic Ash

"We come nearest to the great when we are great in humility."
-Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Nobel Laureate)

Tens of thousands of air travelers around the world are stuck today as a mammoth cloud of ash from the Eyjafjallajökull (EYE-ja-fyatla-jo-kittle) volcano in Iceland shut down all air traffic over Britain, Ireland and the Nordic countries on April 15. The U.K. banned all non-emergency flights until at least 7 a.m. Friday; most affected is London's Heathrow International with over 1200 flights and 180,000 travelers daily. While the majority of flights may be back in the air by the beginning of next week, it will be many more days before the airlines have got their schedules back on track. Some planes are stranded thousands of miles from home.

In addition to causing visibility problems, volcanic ash can wreak havoc with a jet's systems, clogging up engines, blocking sensors and more. Unfortunately ash does not show up well on airplane radar systems so difficult to detect and avoid. Popular Mechanics provides an example from history:

On Dec. 15, 1989, KLM flight 867 intercepted an ash cloud that Redoubt [a volcano in Alaska] had exhaled just 90 minutes earlier. Within 60 seconds, a maelstrom of microscopic volcanic glass shards shut down all four of the 747's engines. With 245 passengers on board, the plane plummeted 13,000 ft before the pilots managed to restart engines and steer the crippled craft to an emergency landing in Anchorage [100 miles away].

After this event the Federal Aviation Administration created the Alaska Volcano Observatory system to monitor 162 active volcanoes in the northern Pacific and give warning to pilots.

There is one bit of good news regarding the eruption. According to the British Health Protection Agency, the effect of ash falling on people in Europe is minor. (I suspect the impact is worse in Iceland.) People may experience itchy or irritated eyes, a runny nose, sore throat, or dry cough, or they may notice the smell of sulphur or see a dusty haze. Those with respiratory conditions like bronchitis, emphysema and asthma may notice the effects more than others and should keep adequate medications on hand.

Bottom Line

There are some things man can not control. Who would have thought in this day and age that your European vacation could be stopped short by a volcano in Iceland?

Because of "Acts of God" you always want to travel with enough cash, clothes, medicine, etc. to last an extra day or two in case you are stranded.