Make It Through

The state of Washington has launched a new preparedness website called "Make it Through" at http://makeitthrough.org/.  It begins with the traditional FEMA/Red Cross guidelines of "Make a Plan", and "Build a Kit" but changes the third step.  Instead of "Stay Informed" or "Get Involved", Washington state says, "Help Each Other".

The "Help Each Other" topic has three sub-points:
1. Get Involved (same as FEMA)
2. Participate in Training  (usually covered under "Get Involved"
3. Work Together

Here's the entire text of "Work Together"

No matter how much you and others plan, something may happen that you don’t expect and don’t have the tools to deal with on your own.  After a catastrophe, connecting with others to share information, identify those who need help, provide first aid and pool resources will increase your abilities to make it through until emergency services are available.

Bottom Line

What does it say about modern society that a state government has to encourage its population to work together and share?

Panic At the Gas Pumps

There are many things we take for granted like fuel at gasoline stations. Last month in England, fuel tanker drivers voted for "industrial action" which could have resulted in a strike of delivering fuel to 90% of the stations. Two ministers in the government offered helpful advice:

1. "a bit of extra fuel in a jerry can in the garage is a sensible precaution to take"

2. "If there is an opportunity to top up your tank if a strike is potentially on the way, then it is a sensible thing if you are able to do that"

These two comments caused a panic as motorists raced to stations to fill cans and top off tanks before the possible strike. Fuel sales climbed 50% and stations ran dry. In Christchurch, Dorset, police closed filling stations after the town became gridlocked with motorists trying to fill up.

Bottom Line

As with many other "just in time" supply chains, it takes very little increase in demand to wipe out supply.

Self-Reliance EXPO in Denver

"Lack of planning on your part does not constitute and emergency on my part"
-bumper sticker

Here's an event I wish I could attend. I'm not aware of anything like it on the East Coast.
It's the Self Reliance Expo in Denver, CO Sept 16-17, 2011. Cost is $9 for adults.

Workshops include aquaponic gardening (my wife wants to try this in our living room), how to go solar, Red Cross Preparedness, the role of Vitamin Supplements in Food Storage, Solar Ovens, how to grow sprouts (we're still working on that, have failed several times), and understanding seeds.

You can follow the location of future Expo events on Facebook and Twitter but oddly the site does not support email registration for newsletters, etc. Hey event organizers, not everyone wants to use Facebook! I have an account but use it rarely. I don't trust Facebook.

Bottom Line

Years I participated in a Preparedness Expo sponsored by local churches. The presentations and booths were excellent but sadly the event was poorly attended. Please take the time to visit Preparedness events in your region- you'll be amazed at what you'll learn.

Communicating with the Internet

“The Internet is the first thing that humanity has built that humanity doesn't understand, the largest experiment in anarchy that we have ever had.”
-Eric Schmidt

On January 25 the Egyptian government shut down the Internet in Egypt in response to massive revolt and riots. This has led to much speculation in America and elsewhere - could this happen to us?

This has also led to discussion on what to do if the Internet goes down. For example Wired.com has a great article entitled Communicate if Your Government Shuts Off Your Internet.  It covers:

• Back up information (like phone lists) that you store online.
• Public radio like CB, HAM and others
• Phone trees
• FAX
• Dial up and other alternatives to your ISP company.
• Satellite access

Bottom Line

I love the Internet. But be careful that you don't rely on it 100% and have backup options in place. It just takes a power outage to lose the Internet.

Out of Stock

"I foresaw that, in time, it would please God to supply me with bread. And yet here I was perplexed again, for I neither knew how to grind or make meal of my corn, or indeed how to clean it and part it; nor, if made into meal, how to make bread of it; and if how to make it, yet I knew not how to bake it. These things being added to my desire of having a good quantity for store, and to secure a constant supply, I resolved not to taste any of this crop but to preserve it all for seed against the next season; and in the meantime to employ all my study and hours of working to accomplish this great work of providing myself with corn and bread. It might be truly said, that now I worked for my bread. I believe few people have thought much upon the strange multitude of little things necessary in the providing, producing, curing, dressing, making, and finishing this one article of bread." - Daniel Defoe (1661–1731), Robinson Crusoe

There are many things we take for granted and rely upon and never dream could possibly fail us. For example, access to your money in the bank. Last month, one of Australia's largest banks, National Australia Bank, encountered a corrupted computer file that jammed its payment system, hitting customers from a range of banks who rely on the NAB to process payments including Citibank and HSBC. Anxious NAB customers discovered online that their November paycheck has been "rubbed out" and their account credited with nothing. "Property deals were being put on hold, car sales suspended, wages not transferred, and direct debit payments for mortgages and bills stopped"

Or consider the Robinson Crusoe quote at top. What if your regional grocery stores ran out of bread (and most everything else) for a week or more? The post, The Truth About Your Local Grocery Store, describes the Just in Time (JIT) inventory system and its impact during disasters. "Twenty or even ten years ago we stored tons of merchandise in the back room and restocked throughout the day." But now stores carry just enough stock to cover normal demands and rely on supply trucks

Most stores get 2 to 5 trucks a day of some type of food.  Thus the store you shop at each day/week really only has about 1-½ to 2 days worth of food on the shelf any given day during normal conditions.  If an emergency happens they will be cleaned out in a matter of hours.  Then the question becomes how they will restock.  Remember roads may be closed.  The warehouse workers who normally load the trucks may have situations where they don’t show up to work due to taking care of their own family.  The same would be true with the truck drivers who would bring it to the stores and the folks who stock and run the local store as well.

If an emergency affects only a very local area then stores may get back in stock within 2-3 days on basic supplies. However if a large region is impacted, such as half a state, then the regional warehouses run out fast and supplies must be trucked in from great distances. Roads between the store and the warehouses may be impassible or damaged. Connecting bridges may have to pass inspection and be cleared as safe before trucks are allowed to cross.

Bottom Line

Regional warehouses stock common items for normal usage levels. They do not have stockpiles of chainsaws, gas cans, and other speciality items that everyone will want after a disaster. Even common items like batteries or bottled water will see an explosion of demand over normal levels that warehouses can not meet. A store may look well stocked with 60 propane bottles for camp stoves on the self but consider, an ice store or blizzard is announced with power outages likely so customers rush in and want 2 bottles each. On average big box stores see 3,000 to 6,000 customers each day. So if just 10% of customers need propane, that means 300 to 600 people need 600 to 1200 bottles with just 60 in stock. Only the first 30 customers will be satisfied assuming there are no hoarders that buy up 10 bottles or the entire stock. Picture your worst experience shopping for Black Friday specials and now ramp that up since the items are now "essential" as opposed to nice-to-have.

Consider also, how will you pay for things if you can find them? The ATMs are down, credit cards won't work so it's cash or personal checks (if the store will accept checks). How much cash do you have on hand to buy things in an emergency? Keep small bills like ones, tens and twenties (not $100s).  When stores reopen they may not have access to change from a bank as they normally do and will be unable or unwilling to give change for $100s.

Texas Tornado

A reader of http://www.survivalblog.com/ submitted the following first-hand account of the tornado that hit Texas last weekend.
Here is a copy of the letter to survivalblog.com.

"I have been reading your blog for a while but until Saturday, I never saw how a disaster could unhinge some people so quickly and what lack of preparedness can do to some people.

I went to deliver a chainsaw, some gas and water to a relative in Yazoo City and what is usually a 45 minute drive took over 2 hours. Land lines and cell towers were down, and if you had a phone with a certain carrier, the service was very spotty. The traffic was bad and the roads into the town were blocked and we were turned away twice by a motley group of authorities but mostly State police. One local deputy was sympathetic and told us a way to get in the town that was 35 miles out of our way and we eventually got close to the north side of town and we had to drive over live power lines and swerve around transformers. We got to the entrance of town and there were two State troopers blocking the exit but we told them we were delivering some supplies and they let us through.

Eventually, we reached the home and there were trees and power lines everywhere. No power, no gas lines, homes and cars crushed, etc. One generator was being shared by neighbors and gas was being siphoned out of boats and cars to power it. There was one electric chainsaw that was plugged into the generator. Things to note were that the authorities were very stressed out and not experienced with this kind of devastation and there were many people who tried to get to loved ones or family that couldn't get past the road blocks. Some people just left their cars on the sides of the road and were allowed to walk into town. One lady drove around the roadblock and was chased by a cop car.

There were people panicking and the Red Cross got there and all they were doing was handing out water bottles. The power company was only responsible for getting the trees off the power lines. You could see people just staring at their crushed homes and houses wondering what to do. There were cops on four wheeler ATVs just riding around and eventually the National Guard showed up but they were just driving around.

Some lessons learned:
* No one is getting into town right after a disaster
* Have a big chainsaw and make sure there are no trees in your yard
* Have a four-wheeler and a 15 foot trailer to haul out pieces of debris from your home/yard
* Have a siphon and a generator
* Know how to turn off your gas in your home because live wires and natural gas don't mix
* Know beforehand that the authorities are not there to help you but to maintain order and the power company is not going to cut down that tree that is now in your dining room.
* Brick homes fare better than stick ones
* Anticipate that neighbors are going to freak out and run around like chickens with their heads cut off and try to do silly things like get in their cars and drive over debris in the road and get stuck and pop their tires.
* Have gloves and chains in your truck and keep a full tank of gas at all times. Some people ran out of gas in the traffic.
* Realize that tensions are going to be high and seeing weird things like one group of people having a barbecue and getting drunk and across the street one family was sitting on the lawn waiting for help is a recipe for a bad situation. I saw a kid in the road trying to flag us down and there were some guys leaning up against a house a bit out of sight. We just drove around him. I couldn't believe that it was already getting strange and the tornado was only a few hours earlier.

So in a nutshell, that was my experience and one more thing, the tornado hit so fast that the siren didn't give enough warning. And what was worse, people are conditioned to think the siren means thunderstorm or it could be a test or something else. So no one was prepared until they heard the freight train sound and with no one having basements in Mississippi, there isn't really a safe place to be."

Bottom Line

Any “Disaster” will cause chaos by definition. Without the chaos, the natural event would be just a bad storm. Expect confusion, wrong advice, ill prepared officials, and inoperative infrastructure. You must be able to support yourself for at least three days without water and electricity.

I have a friend who is an EMT. After a major storm in our town that brought down huge branches everywhere and even a few trees, an ambulance needed two hours to deliver a heart attack victim to the hospital. In some places police prevented the ambulance from traveling closed roads. The family of the victim is suing because they encountered fewer road closures and arrived first at the hospital.

FEMA Tip of the Week

"Over half a billion dollars a day is being spent by FEMA" - Thad Cochran

Recently I discovered that FEMA offers a Tip of Week site. I've been on a FEMA email list for ages and somehow managed to miss this fact. Check out: http://www.fema.gov/privatesector/tips.shtm

Recents Tips include:

• Develop and practice for emergencies at work with employees by reviewing your office emergency plan. www.ready.gov/business/plan/emerplanning.html.


• Create an emergency plan for your organization’s financial and critical records. Click here to develop an emergency financial aid kit: www.operationhope.org/smdev/lf1.php?id=187


• Prepare your employees before, during and after an earthquake with FEMA Earthquake tips. www.fema.gov/hazard/earthquake/index.shtm


• Participate in Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) training to support community preparedness efforts. https://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/


• Place a weather radio or television in an accessible place to readily monitor severe weather conditions. View active weather alerts at http://www.noaa.gov/

Bottom Line

Check out the tips. You'll be glad you did.

Three Strikes in Chile

"We are nine meals from anarchy."-docudrama After Armageddon

On Feb 27 a magnitude 8.8 earthquake hit the country of Chile. This was 500 times stronger than the quake in Haiti and the sixth largest quake measured in modern times. At first glance it appeared that Chile was well prepared with about 700 dead and 2 million homeless (compared to 220,000 dead and 8 million homeless in Haiti). "The Government is up and running, the stock exchange is running, the newspapers are out." – ABC news. Fifty years ago the worst quake ever-recorded devastated Chile (magnitude 9.5 in 1960) and a new infrastructure was built to be earthquake resistant. (Haiti is also a high-risk zone for quakes but poverty and government corruption has not promoted safe building codes.)

But now for the rest of the story. The Chilean earthquake was followed by two additional catastrophic events:

1. Tidal Waves: many seaside towns in Chile were struck by surging waves several meters high that washed away homes and carried an untold number of people to their deaths. Most of the deaths in Chile occurred AFTER the quake with the tsunami. The entire Pacific was then put on alert for coastal evacuation. Fortunately the waves were only 3-4 feet high by the time they reached Hawaii and barely noticeable in Japan.

2. Looting: Chile Battles Lawlessness, Desperation After Massive Earthquake
“Many looters made off with food and basic supplies. Others saw an opportunity for large-scale theft, carrying away home appliances on their backs.” Everything has been stolen from the supermarkets, the small shops, and the pharmacies. Hundreds of looters have been detained and troops have been forced to fire tear gas to stop mobs from pillaging shops and homes.

The situation in parts of Chile is now considered "desparate".

Bottom Line

A disaster or catastrophe means, by definition, that the normal order of things has been overturned. Life will NOT soon return to normal. You cannot rely on local, state, national or international government to quickly come to the rescue. Hence the recommendation to have at LEAST one week of supplies in your home. As Chile shows you can survive the quake, survive the tsunami, and then starve because a mob has grabbed all the food while looting.

PS

The situation in Chile highlights a problem with food storage – a mob may steal it from you. It’s charitable to share your food store if you can, but you might want to lie low and not advertise that you have food storage if you fear mobs and lawlessness. You might also consider breaking up your food storage and hiding portions of it. This way some might remain after the rest is stolen. [Unless neighbors discover the “hidden treasure” of food and ransack your entire house in a treasure hunt.]

Another option is to create/join a neighborhood group to repel looters and “outsiders”. Some towns in Chile have gone this route.

Community Preparedness

"True friendship multiplies the good in life and divides its evils. Strive to have friends, for life without friends is like life on a desert island..to find one real friend in a lifetime is good fortune; to keep him is a blessing.” - Baltasar Gracian

Preparedness works on many levels. There is personal preparedness; family preparedness; workplace preparedness, neighborhood preparedness, and local/state/federal preparedness. This posting will look at neighborhood preparedness.

Do you belong to a neighborhood organization such as a homeowners association or crime watch group? If not can you join one or start one?

Has your organization thought about the way it would respond to a disaster? Has it trained the members and held drills? Here are some topics to consider:

• Host a preparedness fair
• Help neighbors to prepare Family Disaster Plans and keep them up to date
• Encourage or help residents to create Disaster Supplies Kits and keep them up to date
• Create a plan for working together until help arrives. Consider ways to cooperate with each other during recovery.
• Invite your local fire department or emergency management office to hold training classes
• Create a neighborhood map with names and home and cell phone numbers next to each address so neighbors can contact each other in an emergency
• Find out your neighbors' special skills (for example, medical, technical) and consider how they could help in a disaster situation
• Identify elderly and disabled people in the neighborhood, single parents with young children, or others who might need extra help
• Make plans with neighbors for child care in case parents cannot get home in an emergency situation.

There is an old adage: many hands make light work. Consider for example trying to lift fallen debris off a family member - you'll very likely need extra hands. Moving an injured person is something you should NOT do by yourself except under extreme conditions.

Bottom Line

Work with your neighbors but don't become dependent on them like the grasshopper in Aesop's fable - doing nothing to prepare yourself and begging from others when winter arrives. Be a generous ant instead with extra supplies so you can assist your neighbor who is a grasshopper.