Panic At the Gas Pumps

There are many things we take for granted like fuel at gasoline stations. Last month in England, fuel tanker drivers voted for "industrial action" which could have resulted in a strike of delivering fuel to 90% of the stations. Two ministers in the government offered helpful advice:

1. "a bit of extra fuel in a jerry can in the garage is a sensible precaution to take"

2. "If there is an opportunity to top up your tank if a strike is potentially on the way, then it is a sensible thing if you are able to do that"

These two comments caused a panic as motorists raced to stations to fill cans and top off tanks before the possible strike. Fuel sales climbed 50% and stations ran dry. In Christchurch, Dorset, police closed filling stations after the town became gridlocked with motorists trying to fill up.

Bottom Line

As with many other "just in time" supply chains, it takes very little increase in demand to wipe out supply.

Black Plague

They sickened by the thousands daily, and died unattended and without help. Many died in the open street, others dying in their houses
- Giovanni Boccaccio (1313 – 1375)

You may remember from history lessons that "The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350. ... The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% – 60% of Europe's population" (Wikipedia) Did you know that the Black Plague was not a one-time occurrence?

There have been three major outbreaks of plague. The Plague of Justinian in the 6th and 7th centuries is the first known attack on record, and marks the first firmly recorded pattern of bubonic plague. [Some credit this for the downfall of Rome] From historical descriptions, as much as 40% of the population of Constantinople died from the plague. ... After 750, major epidemic diseases did not appear again in Europe until the Black Death of the 14th century. The Third Pandemic hit China in the 1890s and devastated India but was confined to limited outbreaks in the west.

What I thought was medieval and gone is still around. Los Angeles in 1924-25 experienced a rat-borne epidemic where plague was spread from rats to fleas to people. New Mexico has seen 262 human cases of bubonic plague between 1949 and 2010 with fleas from rodents, squirrels, prairie dogs, chipmunks, and occasionally rabbits.

An early telltale sign of the plague is swollen, painful lymph nodes known as buboes. Without treatment, the illness can infect the blood (known as septicemic plague) and finally the lungs. At this point, the infection becomes known as plague pneumonia, or pneumonic plague. The mortality rate increases considerably at this point. - LA Times

Here is a description of the plague from the 1300's,

"In men and women alike it first betrayed itself by the emergence of certain tumours in the groin or armpits, some of which grew as large as a common apple, others as an egg...From the two said parts of the body this deadly gavocciolo soon began to propagate and spread itself in all directions indifferently; after which the form of the malady began to change, black spots or livid making their appearance in many cases on the arm or the thigh or elsewhere, now few and large, now minute and numerous. As the gavocciolo had been and still was an infallible token of approaching death, such also were these spots on whomsoever they showed themselves."
- Giovanni Boccaccio

Bottom Line

Always, always visit a doctor if you find swollen bumps. It probably won't be plague but it could be a sign of a serious internal infection or hernia or advanced stage of cancer that needs immediate and aggressive treatment. Do not delay - in the case of bubonic plague 80% of those who die, will die within eight days.

Eyjafjallajökull

Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?
-Pink Floyd, "Comfortably Numb" lyrics

At work Monday morning I noticed two co-workers were missing. They had flown to Europe last week for a computer conference. It took a moment to put two-and-two together to realize, oh the volcano. They can not come home with airspace over France and England still closed.

Yesterday Astronomy Picture of the Day featured this photo of the volcano.

BusinessInsider.com had this photo of the ash cloud and an informative article on the volcano's impact.

The Map Room blog has a video graphic showing the spread of the ash cloud. Instead of a nice neat streamer it looks like the plume was caught in a washing machine as swirled around making a mess of everything.

Bottom Line

Why did this volcanic eruption in Iceland create so much ash? On April 14 Eyjafjallajökull opened up a vent under a small glacier. The eruption melted a large amount of glacial ice which poured onto the fresh lava fragmenting it into gritty glass particles that were carried up with the rising steam and ash.