Pandemic

With disaster planning, people think of tornadoes and earthquakes but overlook pandemics. What's a pandemic you ask?  According to Wikipedia:  A pandemic [from the Greek meaning "all" "people] is when an infectious disease spreads across a large region; even worldwide. But it is more than just a worldwide disease; the seasonal flu is not generally considered a pandemic. A pandemic is an aggressive disease, like smallpox and tuberculosis, affecting ever greater numbers of people until a cure is found or it burns itself out after massive deaths.

A worst case pandemic is a new disease (or mutation) that is easily spread, deadly, and with no cure. The US hasn't really seen this on a large scale since the Spanish flu of the 1910's although in some countries HIV has reached pandemic levels.

During a pandemic massive numbers of people become sick and/or die. The immediate effect is that hospitals become overwhelmed and unable to treat all patients. Then doctors & nurses become sick which makes the hospital problem even worse. Then services overall begin to worsen as workers for all types of jobs are sick, caring for the sick or dead. Bodies may pile up with no one to bury them. At some point fear may take over with everyone afraid to leave their home (or alternately fleeing the city to find health in isolation). The government may close schools, sport games, church services and other sites where people meet and mix to halt the spread of the disease.

How do you prepare for something like this? FEMA at www.ready.gov/pandemic suggests:

• Store a two week supply of water and food. During a pandemic, if you cannot get to a store, or if stores are out of supplies, it will be important for you to have extra supplies on hand.
• Periodically check your regular prescription drugs to ensure a continuous supply in your home.
• Have any nonprescription drugs and other health supplies on hand, including pain relievers, stomach remedies, cough and cold medicines, fluids with electrolytes, and vitamins.
• Talk with family members and loved ones about how they would be cared for if they got sick, or what will be needed to care for them in your home.
• Volunteer with local groups to prepare and assist with emergency response.
• Get involved in your community as it works to prepare for an influenza pandemic.

 When a pandemic begins,

• Avoid close contact with people who are sick. When you are sick, keep your distance from others to protect them from getting sick too.
• If possible, stay home from work, school, and errands when you are sick. You will help prevent others from catching your illness.
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing. It may prevent those around you from getting sick.
• Washing your hands often will help protect you from germs.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs are often spread when a person touches something that is contaminated with germs and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or mouth.
• Practice other good health habits. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food.

It's a Landslide!

We may say that a politician wins by a landslide but few Americans (other than coastal Californians) have ever experience a real landslide. When I lived in Florida I experienced a different type of land movement - a sinkhole. As Floridians drink the fresh water underground and the aquifer drops, the land above sometimes collapses, swallowing cars and entire homes.

Landslides are extremely dangerous. Masses of rock, mud and debris move down a slope like a river of earth, striking with little or no warning at avalanche speeds. They also can travel several miles from their source, growing in size as they pick up trees, boulders, cars and other materials.

Recognize Landslide Warning Signs (FEMA)

• Changes occur in your landscape such as patterns of storm-water drainage on slopes (especially the places where runoff water converges) land movement, small slides, flows, or progressively leaning trees.
• Doors or windows stick or jam for the first time.
• New cracks appear in plaster, tile, brick, or foundations.
• Outside walls, walks, or stairs begin pulling away from the building.
• Slowly developing, widening cracks appear on the ground or on paved areas such as streets or driveways.
• Underground utility lines break.
• Bulging ground appears at the base of a slope.
• Water breaks through the ground surface in new locations.
• Fences, retaining walls, utility poles, or trees tilt or move.
• A faint rumbling sound that increases in volume is noticeable as the landslide nears.
• The ground slopes downward in one direction and may begin shifting in that direction under your feet.
• Unusual sounds, such as trees cracking or boulders knocking together, might indicate moving debris.
• Collapsed pavement, mud, fallen rocks, and other indications of possible debris flow can be seen when driving (embankments along roadsides are particularly susceptible to landslides).

Make It Through

The state of Washington has launched a new preparedness website called "Make it Through" at http://makeitthrough.org/.  It begins with the traditional FEMA/Red Cross guidelines of "Make a Plan", and "Build a Kit" but changes the third step.  Instead of "Stay Informed" or "Get Involved", Washington state says, "Help Each Other".

The "Help Each Other" topic has three sub-points:
1. Get Involved (same as FEMA)
2. Participate in Training  (usually covered under "Get Involved"
3. Work Together

Here's the entire text of "Work Together"

No matter how much you and others plan, something may happen that you don’t expect and don’t have the tools to deal with on your own.  After a catastrophe, connecting with others to share information, identify those who need help, provide first aid and pool resources will increase your abilities to make it through until emergency services are available.

Bottom Line

What does it say about modern society that a state government has to encourage its population to work together and share?

NATIONAL FLOOD SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are once again partnering for National Flood Safety Awareness Week, March 12 -16.  This is a time for individuals, families, businesses and communities to understand their risk for flooding and take precautions to protect their families and homes in the event of flooding. 

"Floods can happen at any time, anywhere across the United States, which means we all need to be prepared now," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.  "There are simple steps everyone can take to prepare for flooding, such as developing a family emergency plan, having an emergency supply kit and protecting your home or business from flooding by obtaining a flood insurance policy."

Floods are one of the most common hazards in the United States, however not all floods are alike. Floods typically occur when too much rain falls or snow melts too quickly. While some floods develop slowly, flash floods develop suddenly.  Hurricanes can bring flooding to areas far inland from where they first hit the coast, as we witnessed last year from the devastating impacts of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. And chunks of ice from a thawing river can block its normal flow and force water out of its banks.  

Yet there are simple steps citizens can take today to reduce their risk to all types of floods.  Flood Safety Awareness Week is an excellent time for individuals and communities to understand their flood risk and implement precautions to mitigate the threat to life and property.

"Flooding is the leading cause of severe weather-related deaths in the U.S., and this is especially tragic since many are preventable.  Of the nearly 100 flood-related fatalities each year, most occur as people attempt to drive on flooded roads.  In many cases, the water is either too deep or moving too fast for drivers to maintain control of their vehicle, and in extreme cases the roadway may be washed away entirely," said Jack Hayes, director, NOAA's National Weather Service, which produces an array of flood outlooks and forecasts, including watches and life-saving warnings. "Remember, if confronted with a water-covered road follow National Weather Service advice: Turn Around, Don't Drown."

Do you know where your family is?

Observe always that everything is the result of change, and get used to thinking that there is nothing Nature loves so well as to change existing forms and make new ones of them.

- Marcus Aurelius, emperor of Rome (121-180 AD)

Here's some preparedness advice from FEMA at Ready.gov

Your family may not be together when a disaster strikes so it is important to plan in advance: how you will get to a safe place; how you will contact one another; how you will get back together; and what you will do in different situations. Read more about Family Communication during an emergency.

Ready.gov has made it simple for you to make a family emergency plan. Download the Family Emergency Plan and fill out the sections before printing it or emailing it to your family and friends.

You should also inquire about emergency plans at places where your family spends time: work, daycare and school, faith organizations, sports events and commuting. If no plans exist, consider volunteering to help create one. Talk to community leaders, your colleagues, neighbors and members of faith or civic organizations about how you can work together in the event of an emergency. You will be better prepared to safely reunite your family and loved ones during an emergency if you think ahead and communicate with others in advance.

Bottom Line

Identify a contact such as a friend or relative who lives out-of-state for household members to notify after an emergency. Local phone lines can become overloaded so it may be easier to make a long-distance phone call than to call across town. An out-of-town contact may be in a better position to communicate among separated family members.

Be sure every member of your family knows the phone number and has a cell phone, coins or a prepaid phone card to call the emergency contact.

If you have a cell phone, program that person(s) as "ICE" (In Case of Emergency) in your phone. If you are in an accident, emergency personnel will often check your ICE listings in order to get a hold of someone you know. Make sure to tell your family and friends that you’ve listed them as emergency contacts.

Teach family members how to use text messaging. Text messages can often get around network disruptions when a phone call might not be able to get through.

Subscribe to alert services. Many communities now have systems that will send instant text alerts or e-mails to let you know about bad weather, road closings, local emergencies, etc.

How to Avoid Fraud after a Storm

“There is no recourse against hiring an unlicensed contractor. We're not saying anything about the good companies that come in to make a decent living, but unfortunately, there are the bad ones that try to come in and suck people's insurance checks and move on.”
- Larry Johnson

Last month FEMA published an alert about identify theft fraud after Tropical Storm Lee hit New York. Residents in Tioga County had encountered a potential fraudster canvassing neighborhoods claiming to be a “financial consultant” doing a survey for FEMA in a bid to obtain personal financial information.

FEMA notes that

Many legitimate persons -- insurance agents, FEMA Community Relations personnel, local inspectors and real contractors -- may have to visit a storm-damaged property. Survivors could, however, encounter people posing as inspectors, government officials or contractors in a bid to obtain personal information or collect payment for repair work. Your best strategy to protect yourself against fraud is to ask to see identification in all cases and to safeguard your personal financial information.

Be suspicious of anyone who:

• Has no proper identification (a shirt or jacket saying FEMA or some other org is NOT enough). Ask to see their photo laminated card.
• Wants your personal financial information
• Asks for cash to fill out a form or for an inspection.
• Demands cash or full payment up front for home repairs. Won't provide a contract.
• Is a contractor with no physical address on their card.
• Urges you to borrow to pay for repairs, then steers you to a specific lender or tries to act as an intermediary between you and a lender.
• Urges you to use a contractor they recommend
• Asks you to sign something you have not had time to review.

To avoid scams:

• Question strangers and demand to see identification
• Never give any personal financial information to an unfamiliar person
• Never sign any document without first reading it fully. Ask for an explanation of any terms or conditions you do not understand
• Do your own research before borrowing money for repairs. Compare quotes, repayment schedules and rates. If they differ significantly, ask why.

Bottom Line

For more information about avoiding charitable giving scams, visit the Federal Trade Commission’s website at http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2011/05/homerepair.shtm

Free Preparedness Training

If you don't know where you are going, how can you expect to get there?
-Basil S. Walsh

Where there is no vision, the people perish.
-Proverbs 29:18

I recently got an e-mail from a person asking about Preparedness training.

Where to begin? There are so many different things to consider and it all depends on what you are Preparing for.

The FEMA site covering preparation for natural disasters is at http://www.ready.gov/
See also http://allreadystl.com/types-of-emergencies/ for a list of emergency prep documents by disaster type.

The LDS church has an excellent introduction to the basics at http://www.providentliving.org/

If you're worried about TEOTWAWKI (The end of the world as we know it) see http://www.survivalblog.com/ which covers surviving on your own - raising your own food, caring for medical needs, protecting yourself, etc.

You can receive free training by volunteering for the American Red Cross or a local CERT team:
http://www.redcross.org/  (drill down to Preparing & Training, then Preparedness Fast Facts).
http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/

FEMA offers free online training which are required for emergency workers, in particular IS100 and IS700:
http://training.fema.gov/IS/NIMS.asp

To learn more about 72-hour kits see my blog, 72-hour Kits, with links to resources.

Bottom Line

There is no shortage of information online. The hard part is knowing where to begin. Both the Red Cross and FEMA endorse:

Get a Kit, Make a Plan, Be Informed.

Which translates to

• make or buy 72-hour kits for your home, office and car. (see 72-hour Kits and Pet Go-Kits )
• make family plans for how you will respond to house fire and other emergencies. Where to evacuate to, whom to call, etc. (see Family Communication Plan)
• follow blogs like mine and check out the resources above. (see also FEMA tip of the week) 

Hurricane Go-Kit

“There isn't much wrong with most of those summerhouses that a really good hurricane wouldn't cure [and] when it comes it may do for the Hamptons what Mrs O'Leary's cow did for Chicago.”
- Peter Blake

One way to prepare for Hurricane Season is to make or update your go-kits. This is a 3-day supply of food, water, clothing and more that you can grab as you leave the house and flee a disaster.

Here’s a short list of basic recommended items for a go-kit:

• Contact information; and important documents http://www.ready.gov/america/_downloads/familyemergencyplan.pdf
• Water--at least one gallon per person per day for at least three days.
• Food--at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food.
• Can-opener.
• Cash--ATMs and credit card readers might be out. Have small bills to make change.
• Prescription medications and glasses.
• Radio: battery-powered or hand crank.
• Flashlight: battery-powered or hand crank.
• Extra batteries.
• First aid kit
• Charged cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger.
• Moist towelettes, toothbrush for hygeine
• Garbage/ziploc bags personal sanitation.
• Local maps.

Bottom Line

Here are some recommended sites for go-kits

http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/assemble_disaster_supplies_kit.shtm

http://www.redcross.org/portal/site/en/menuitem.53fabf6cc033f17a2b1ecfbf43181aa0/?vgnextoid=537b218c37752210VgnVCM10000089f0870aRCRD&currPage=e507d7aada352210VgnVCM10000089f0870aRCRD

http://www.redcrossstore.org/Shopper/Product.aspx?UniqueItemId=36

http://www.co.colfax.nm.us/download/fire/PREPARING%20A%2072%20HOUR.pdf

Important Guidance on Helping Disaster Survivors

Yesterday FEMA sent the following email...

A second disaster threatens to overtake Joplin MO by way of a tidal wave of unsolicited goods (things like clothing, miscellaneous household items, mixed or perishable foodstuffs, diapers...) and volunteers who just show up to help.  Critical resources are being redirected from the important work of response and relief to managing what has become a crush of unneeded donated items.  Social networking sites are promoting collection drives while radio stations, small and large businesses, business and fraternal organizations and churches around the country fill semis with items that threaten to crowd warehouses and overwhelm distribution channels in the impacted area. 

Your help is urgently needed to stem the flow of unneeded goods and volunteers into Joplin.  You are encouraged to reach out to your employees, customers and other constituents on how those wanting to help can do so in a way that doesn't cause further impact, but rather aids in the response and recovery effort.

The following guidelines were developed by a coalition of government, voluntary agency and faith-based partners:

• Cash to a recognized voluntary agency is the single best way to help disaster survivors.  Cash doesn't need to be sorted, stored or distributed, and it allows the voluntary agency to  the donation towards the needs that most urgently need addressing.
• Visit http://sema.dps.mo.gov/recover/donations.asp to donate to the Missouri tornado recovery effort.
• For information on other ways to help go to: www.fema.gov/rebuild/recover/howtohelp.

Bottom Line

Two days ago I read a story praising four semi-trucks of supplies gathered via Facebook and Boy Scouts and delivered to Joplin. I thought about responding to that but didn't. During the aftermath of 9-11 authorities made it clear that they did not want random supplies pouring in. Ditto for Haitii after the earthquake. Send money instead.

In Monday's post I'll look at a status report from Joplin 36-hours after the tornado. Even then the Emergency Management Team was looking for a bigger warehouse to store unsolicited supplies.

Did you turn back your clock?

I don't mind going back to daylight saving time. With inflation, the hour will be the only thing I've saved all year. - Victor Borge

Daylight Savings Time ended this weekend, Sunday morning at 2am. So if you arrived at work an hour early, then you forgot to "Fall back" your clocks. Now if I could set the clock back one day, then I could have sent you this message from FEMA on time.

FEMA Encourages Americans to be Prepared as They Turn Their Clocks Back

With Daylight Saving Time coming to an end, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is encouraging Americans to take advantage of the November 7 time change as a reminder to make sure their families are prepared for a possible emergency. A few simple steps like checking smoke alarms, developing a family communications plan, and putting an emergency kit together can go a long way toward keeping families safe.

"As a nation, we can only be as prepared as our public - the most important member of our emergency management team.", says FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "I encourage everyone, as we fall back an hour, to also take a few simple steps to prepare their homes and loved ones for emergencies, including checking their smoke alarms and putting together an emergency kit."

Information on preparing for emergencies can be found at http://www.ready.gov/. Steps include developing a communications plan to ensure family members know how to get in touch with each other during an emergency, putting together an emergency kit, and staying informed of potential risks. It's important to remember that an emergency could be a large-scale catastrophic disaster, or a smaller-scale event like a car accident or house fire.

In addition to visiting Ready.gov, the United States Fire Administration is encouraging families to ensure their homes are equipped with working smoke alarms. A working smoke alarm significantly increases your chances of surviving a deadly home fire so it's important to test alarms regularly and keep them properly maintained. This includes checking the manufacture/expiration date on the label, replacing the batteries, and cleaning dust away from the slots so that smoke can enter freely.

For more information about home smoke alarms and fire sprinklers, please visit: www.usfa.dhs.gov/smokealarms.

FEMA's mission is to support our first responders and ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

Bottom Line

Did you notice that "make a kit" was included multiple times in the FEMA announcement. Hopefully you already have a well stocked house for emergencies and a kit for every car and work office. If that's the case then use the Daylight Saving Time changes as a reminder to refresh your kits. Who wants to eat a 10-year old snack bar or drink an ancient bottled water? Batteries lose charge if not replaced, or worse yet, corrode and leak acid. The spare underwear you packed may have rotted or the clothes you packed for kids no longer fit. Any financial and personal information you duplicated for your kit may be out of date.

Emergency Response Politics

"It was chaos. There was nobody there, nobody in charge. And there was nobody giving even water. The children . . . they're all just in tears. There are sick people. We saw . . . people who are dying in front of you."
- CNN producer Kim Segal, describing the New Orleans Convention Center the day after Hurricane Katrina

[Note: the Convention Center was NOT an official shelter like the Superdome. Thousands of people just showed up and expected to be taken care of in a city that was official abandoned. The media handled this very poorly- looking for blame instead of helping evacuate the people to real shelters or notifying officials. TV anchor, Ted Koppel, would accuse FEMA of negligence for NOT learning about the crisis at the convention center from TV news reports.]

A reader of the SurvivalBlog.com objects to Firefighter Charles disaster scenario that I quoted in yesterday's post.

"Firefighter Charles's statement about FEMA's response times shows a lack of understanding of how the process works. In the event of another Hurricane Katrina type natural disaster, the following things have to happen, in the following order:

1. Disaster strikes
2. Local officials setup an incident command
3. Local Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs) are activated. The local emergency operations plan (EOP) is put into action.
4. Mutual aid agreements are activated. If the disaster goes beyond this, then...
5. State EOCs are activated. State EOPs are put into action.
6. The state activates it's mutual aid agreements.
7. If the situation is not contained, the Governor declares a State Emergency. He can then.....
8. Appeal to the President to declare the event a federal disaster - whether it is a Stafford Act event or not.
9. FEMA is then activated and ordered to head the rescue/relief efforts. The FBI is the lead investigative agency for any criminal acts, while the BATFE is the lead law enforcement agency for anything law enforcement related such as security, etc."

Now there are some good points here but I think the responder protests too much. The process above makes Firefighter Charles's point even stronger. Before super-slow FEMA can respond, one has to wait for local bureaucracy and then state bureaucracy to run its course. This rarely happens quickly and you can still expect 72-hrs or more to pass before resources like food and mass shelter are available.

In the case of Katrina the emergency response process was stalled by politics. The mayor of New Orleans ordered everyone to abandon his city with just 19 hours notice. The New Orleans official evacuation plan was not activated; school buses sat unused that could have helped evacuate residents. Those who could not leave were ordered to go to shelter of "last resort" without any provisions for food, water, security, or sanitary conditions. The Louisiana Superdome was designed to handle 800 as a shelter but 30,000 arrived.

Immediately after the hurricane had passed on Aug 30, 2005, Michael Chertoff, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA's boss, tried to take over the federal, state, and local operations, citing the National Response Plan. This was refused by Governor Blanco of Louisiana who indicated that her National Guard could manage. President Bush, a former governor of Texas, would not overrule a governor acting within her constitutional rights of state leadership.

Still it is wrong to say the Federal Government did nothing. Naval ships were moved to the Gulf before the hurricane hit and Coast Guard helicopters rescued 35,000 individuals from flood waters. Approximately 58,000 National Guard personnel were activated to deal with the storm's aftermath, with troops coming from all 50 states. The Department of Defense also activated volunteer members of the Civil Air Patrol.

700,000 people applied to FEMA for temporary housing. Tens of thousands of trailers were used but in some parishes the local council refused the trailers (not wanting to create a permanent squatters camp perhaps?). Also FEMA would only deploy trailers to regions with working utilities. (Think of the sewage problems that would result otherwise). For those without trailers, FEMA paid for hotel rooms. Five years after the disaster, there are still 260 families in hotels being paid by FEMA.

A Congressional investigation after Katrina found that FEMA and the Red Cross "did not have a logistics capacity sophisticated enough to fully support the massive number of Gulf coast victims." It placed responsibility for the disaster on all three levels of government.

Bottom Line

The National Incident Management System (NIMS) always puts the onus for response on local governments. However local responders NEVER have the resources for a major emergency. In Westchester county with a population of almost 1 million, the local Red Cross and CERT teams have cots for only 30,000 people. If there were mass evacuation from an accident at Indian Point Nuclear power plant, we'd have to rely on neighboring counties and neighboring states for shelter. That requires lots of high-level politics and lots of time.

The worst part of this is that many townships in Westchester, NY refuse to stockpile supplies and designate shelters. Once a town has a shelter plan, they are responsible to maintain it. For towns without a shelter plan, the responsibility goes upon Westchester county.

http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/09/waiting-for-cavalry.html
http://perpetualpreparedness.blogspot.com/2008/08/hurrican-ready.html

FEMA Tip of the Week

"Over half a billion dollars a day is being spent by FEMA" - Thad Cochran

Recently I discovered that FEMA offers a Tip of Week site. I've been on a FEMA email list for ages and somehow managed to miss this fact. Check out: http://www.fema.gov/privatesector/tips.shtm

Recents Tips include:

• Develop and practice for emergencies at work with employees by reviewing your office emergency plan. www.ready.gov/business/plan/emerplanning.html.


• Create an emergency plan for your organization’s financial and critical records. Click here to develop an emergency financial aid kit: www.operationhope.org/smdev/lf1.php?id=187


• Prepare your employees before, during and after an earthquake with FEMA Earthquake tips. www.fema.gov/hazard/earthquake/index.shtm


• Participate in Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) training to support community preparedness efforts. https://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/


• Place a weather radio or television in an accessible place to readily monitor severe weather conditions. View active weather alerts at http://www.noaa.gov/

Bottom Line

Check out the tips. You'll be glad you did.

Disaster Animal Response Team

“I never married because there was no need. I have three pets at home which answer the same purpose as a husband. I have a dog which growls every morning, a parrot which swears all afternoon, and a cat that comes home late at night.” - Marie Corelli

If ordered to evacuate your home, would you/could you leave your pets behind? Because most emergency shelters and hotels have a no pet policy, the standard procedure for disasters requires that pet owners leave their loved ones behind. However as Hurricane Katrina clearly showed, when given a choice between their own personal safety or abandoning their household pets, a significant number of people will choose to risk their lives in order to remain with their pets.

In recognition of this, congress passed the Pets Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act, Public Law 109–308 (2006). The PETS Act requires that State and local emergency preparedness authorities include how they will accommodate households with pets or service animals when presenting disaster preparedness plans to the FEMA. (A city or state is required to submit a plan in order to qualify for Federal Emergency Management Agency funding.)

Unfortunately, since the passage of the PETS Act of 2006, little has changed. Bureaucracies are slow to change. Under existing liability laws, a shelter could face a damaging lawsuit when someone is bitten by another person’s cute pet. And I suspect this law is not well known; I just learned of it, three years after its passage. It has never been mentioned in my training with the Red Cross or CERT.

Bottom Line

What can you do?

First- write to your mayor and governor and ask them, do they know about this law and what have they done to include pets in the emergency planning.

Second- follow the example of the Lamorinda area in Northern California (Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda in Contra Costa County). They have created a Disaster Animal Response Team (DART) to rescue pets and farm animals during Wildfires. Lamorinda DART consists of CERT graduates who have received additional animal sheltering and rescue training and are able to provide disaster response to humans and animals.

More lessons from Kentucky

Natural disasters arbitrarily bring death and destruction. They act beyond the control of mortal man and his institutions, no matter how grand and well-intentioned those institutions may be. - Jeff Taylor

The quote above comes from the article Katrina in Kentucky on reason.com. The author makes several interesting points.

remember that it was not until the Clinton administration that the federal government was even expected to deal with winter storms. ... Soon enough state and local officials were petitioning Washington for any and all weather-related expenses.

... Natural disasters arbitrarily bring death and destruction. They act beyond the control of mortal man and his institutions, no matter how grand and well-intentioned those institutions may be. Furthermore, the iron law of all disasters is that it is nearly impossible to get aid quickly to people in need. Two corollaries flow from this reality. One, that it is always better to evacuate potential victims than to attempt to rescue certain victims. Two, given that outside help will be unreliable at best, local ad hoc relief efforts are almost always more effective.

Bottom Line

The last point is very important. Local help is your 2nd best source for aid. The best is yourself and your own emergency supplies. If you have a local CERT team consider joining for the training and the neighborhood support.

Soldiers of Fortune

"Survival kits and disaster preparedness used to be something out of the mainstream. After a brief (and heavily-mocked) period of fallout-shelter construction in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the notion of private disaster preparedness retreated from the mainstream. … 10 years ago, [Survival Kits] was the stuff of Soldier of Fortune [magazine]." – Glen Reynolds

Glen Reynolds (Instapundit) wrote the above in a 2006 article entitled “We're All Soldiers of Fortune Now”. He notes that “You know survival kits are mainstream when Costco is selling them. … Survival food buckets … were going for $110 and had about 275 servings of freeze dried vegetarian meals.”

More signs that preparedness is mainstream:

• The federal Department of Homeland Security, http://www.ready.gov/, pushing survival kits
• Many states have preparedness pages. In 2006 the state of Ohio sent residents a pamphlet suggesting they put away a month’s worth of food in case of avian flu.
• FEMA encourages Community Emergency Response Team training
• September is now officially National Preparedness Month

Bottom Line

Glen concludes with, “It's a dangerous world out there, and there are lots of reasons, beyond politics, for doing what we can to be ready for it.”

Ice Storm in Kentucky

“[The ice storm was] even worse than some of the tornadoes we've had where you have a very defined area of damage, ... The damage is so widespread, 42 of our 75 counties are under disaster declaration because of the ice.” - Mike Huckabee (Arkansas governor, 1996-2007)

After Hurricane Katrina, the Red Cross changed its recommendation from having a 3 day supply kit to have a week long food storage and supplies. Events in Kentucky are proving that three days just aren’t enough.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090131/NEWS01/90131003

Thousands of people in ice-caked Kentucky have sought refuge in motels and shelters. …Some in rural Kentucky ran short of food and bottled water, and resorted to dipping buckets in a creek. … rural communities feared it could be days or even weeks before workers got to areas littered with downed power lines. … Temperatures were expected to rise just above freezing Saturday for the first time in days.

At least 42 people have died in the icy arc of destruction that began in the Midwest. Most were blamed on hypothermia, traffic accidents and carbon monoxide poisoning from generators.

Bottom Line

Kentucky is also demonstrating why you to need to care for your own family and not rely on local or federal government.

1. Local resources are quickly overwhelmed
"We can't service everybody in our shelter," said Crittenden County Judge-Executive Fred Brown, who oversees about 9,000 people who have stayed five days at the town's elementary school.

2. State Aid is often not well organized

Local officials grew angrier at what they said was a lack of help from the state and FEMA. … the 25 National Guardsmen who have responded have no chain saws to clear fallen trees [on roads].

3. FEMA is SLOW and LATE
A FEMA spokeswoman said, "We have plenty of folks ready to go, but there are some limitations with roads closed and icy conditions."

What a surprise! An ice storm has closed the roads so FEMA is unable to respond. Apparently FEMA is only able to aid disaster victims when the weather is perfect and after someone else has cleared the roads.

4. FEMA supplies can not be trusted
Story Fec 5 on FEMA rescue food sent to Kentucky, FEMA Food May Contain Salmonella Peanut Butter

Leadership?

"It became clear that people have erroneously come to falsely mistake management for leadership." - James W Breckenridge

During hurricane Katrina the media and the public did a lot of finger pointing at FEMA and President Bush. What was overlooked and misunderstood was the role each had to play during the emergency. FEMA has a management role. It exists to organize, give advice, train, but not to lead.

“Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.” - Peter Drucker, management advisor

President Bush was criticized for not leading. Although we typically think of the president as the leader of our nation, we tend to forget that we are the United STATES of America and that state governors have a lot of local authority. In the case of hurricane Katrina, the first leaders responsible were the local Mayors. Sadly the mayor of New Orleans and his staff fled the city, did not implement the city's emergency plan, and yelled loudly for the Federal government to save everyone. However, mayors do not have the authority to request federal resources. This is the right and responsibility of the state governor and during Katrina the Louisiana governor delayed asking for help for many days. Technically Bush and FEMA were not legally allowed to help until officially asked to by the governor. This is known as state rights and as a former governor of Texas, George Bush understands state rights.

Bottom Line
During emergencies, both leaders and managers are needed. Managers must ensure good logistics by organizing the supplies, people and resources. Leaders are needed to inspire the people, to issue orders, and make major decisions.

"One of the tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency." - Arnold Glasgow

Great leaders will hire great managers to take care of the details. Great leaders will also understand the limits of their authority and how to work with and cooperate with other leaders.

Level Orange

"Auntie Em, Auntie Em! It's a twister!"
- Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz

FEMA gets a lot of teasing by comedians for the new color levels indicating the risk of terrorism. But in reality, this system is far less confusing than the verbal warnings used for weather events.

Quick test - which is more dangerous: a Tornado Warning or Tornado Watch?

1. Tornado Watch (conditions are favorable for a tornado)
2. Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch
3. Tornado Alert (formerly used)
4. Tornado Warning (a tornado was spotted by eye or radar)
5. Tornado Emergency (rarely used for monster tornados in urban areas)

Do you know there are four escalating levels of flooding?

1. flood watch
2. flash flood watch
3. flood warning
4. flash flood warning

Tsunamis can be

1. “advisory”
2. a “watch”
3. “warning”.

Another test, which is worse: your nearby nuclear power plant issues a “notification of unusual event”or a “alert”?

1. "Notification of Unusual Event"
   A small problem has occurred inside the plant. No radiation leak.
2. "Alert"
   Small amounts of radiation have leaked inside the plant only.
3. "Site Area Emergency"
   Radiation has leaked within the plant site, outside the building but within the fences. Area sirens might be sounded.
4. "General Emergency"
   Radiation may leak off the plant site. The sirens will sound. Follow promptly instructions on your local radio or television station.

Bottom Line

Threat level messages can be confusing. Remember that a Watch means keep your eyes open (watch out) and a Warning means take action (you have been warned).

Finger Pointing

"After any crisis ... there is a lot of finger-pointing. Any tips on how to help my team avoid finger-pointing when we face a crisis?" - Harvard Business Publishing

Today I recommend the article, 7 Steps to Stop Finger-Pointing in a Crisis by the Harvard Business School. The advice includes

• "help more, judge less"
• Focus on the future, not a past that cannot be changed
• Everyone should take responsibility for their own behavior
• Ask, "What can I learn from this crisis?"
• Avoid speaking when angry or out of control

I was inspired to talk about this topic after reading the article, Death, destruction, darkness strike Gulf Coast. The writer describes the finger pointing between FEMA and local government after hurricane Ike:

FEMA came under fire as several dozen trucks filled with water and food were not set up in surrounding communities a day after the storm passed. While taking criticism reminiscent of Katrina, FEMA officials immediately pointed a finger at someone else.

In a press conference at FEMA headquarters, Homeland Security
Secretary Michael Chertoff faulted state officials for handing his department the “unexpected challenge” of preparing distribution points (PODs) in addition to delivering supplies.

But state officials said it was the duty of local government, which came as a surprise to Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. “If I could have known something 18-hours-ago, we
could have made plans to pick up something a lot quicker, that’s a fact,” a frustrated Mayor White said in a press briefing on Sept. 14.

Confusion between relief agencies is normal after emergencies. At best once a year emergency response organizations get together to role play a disaster and practice inter-agency communication.

BOTTOM LINE

Don't count on the government save you; save yourself. It was families without survival kits in their homes or apartments that anxiously awaited the word about points of distribution (PODS) after the horror of Hurricane Ike.

If you are self reliant you won't be in this situation of this person...

"It is a damn shame that they’ve been sitting up arguing like children about whose fault it is when my family and others were in serious need. I was standing in line for nearly six hours waiting for water and food to arrive at one site.” - FinalCall.com

See CERT for details on personal emergency training.

Hide and Seek

"Ollie, Ollie oxen go free" - children's game of hide and seek

In yesterday's post I pointed out the many reasons why rescuers may be slow to reach your door - blocked roads, floods, no street signs, etc. Now let's consider the best of conditions, help has reached your neighborhood. Now what? Except for the obvious cases, like persons sitting on the roof of their flooded house, it won't be easy to determine who needs rescuing and where.

If resources permit, rescue teams may do house to house searches but this takes lots of time and manpower. Here are some ideas to help rescuers find you quickly.

1. Try every type of phone when calling for help.
   - During emergencies cell phones are quickly overwhelmed or the cell towers fail. An old fashioned land line phone attached to a jack the wall can be a life saver. Land line phones get power from the phone line and may still work when electricity fails.
2. Call someone far away.
   Local 911 and local phone lines will be overwhelmed and all you get is a busy signal. Try calling family or friends out of state. Calls to someone outside the disaster region may work while busy lines might block them from calling you. Let them know where you are and ask them to notify 911 on your behalf.
   Frequently in a major disaster, the number of lost people is overwhelming and search efforts less than organized. Your outside friend can keep retrying on your behalf if you're not found over many days and your cell phone and land phone have lost power.
3. Register on FEMA
   FEMA supports a website so your outside friend can register that you are a person displaced in a storm. Power/Internet permitting - you can register yourself to let family know where you are sheltered. See https://asd.fema.gov/inter/nefrls/home.htm
4. Register on the Red Cross Safe and Well
   Same as FEMA - report persons missing or report yourself as alive and well https://disastersafe.redcross.org/
5. Make it obvious that you need rescue
   Paint "HELP ME" or "SOS" on the door or wall of your house. Write in soap or markers on your windows. Put a note on the door (covered in something water proof and nailed down) letting rescuers know what room you are sheltering in.
6. Contact the news media
   If you have not been rescued and your 3 day kit is running out, you or friends can try calling the media to ask them to find out why you are not being rescued.

BOTTOM LINE
Don't play hide and seek when you want to be rescued. Use every means you can to make your location and your need for rescue obvious.