WHO can you trust?

Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
- lyrics by The Who

The flurry of stories over Swine Flu has certainly been educational; almost like a global safety drill with a chance to evaluate the key players. There has been a wide range of public and official reactions from “head to the hills” to “nothing to worry about”. So whom can you trust?

Many studies have shown that people are a poor judge at putting risks into proper perspective. My current commuting book on CD, “Predictably Irrational”, details the many ways people are wired to act in ways that defy “rational” behavior. For example, use the word “free” and people will mob and sometimes riot to get something they don’t really need. When it comes to diseases, the word “death” triggers similar irrational behavior.

Yesterday it was announced that the first person (an infant) had died of Swine Flu in the US. Panic!!!! Well, no. Since the majority of US cases are in New York City (Queens), mayor Bloomberg held a press conference and told the public that 2000 New Yorkers die every year from flu. Death from flu is normal and part of everyday life that no one usually thinks twice about.

So why the hyper-reaction over Swine Flu?

• We are past the normal flu season so deaths from this strain stand out as unusual.
• The media has given it a name and made it their top story for ratings.
• This flu (Mexico only so far) has killed healthy adults. This is serious news and makes this strain different than “normal flu”.

Once reliable source for judging the danger of influenza is the World Health Organization (WHO). They publish a global risk level for a pandemic (from all known flues) on a scale of 1 to 6.
Phases 1-3 represent flu in animals (like Bird Flu) that spread poorly to people.
Phase 4 means there is verified human-to-human transmission of an influenza virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” There is a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries. Declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent.
Phase 6 means the disease is a pandemic affecting many countries.

Bottom Line
On April 28 WHO raised the pandemic risk level from 3 to 4. On April 29 the threat level was raised to 5. WHO advises preparing for a pandemic but oddly does not yet recommend closing boarders or canceling travel plans. Personally I think that is under-responding and favoring the interests of business over people. So far most US cases have been traced back to someone visiting Mexico so it seems prudent to stay away until the flu is under control. Why visit a country that has declared itself a National Health Emergency?

Prepare, take precautions, and odds are you'll be OK. During the Spanish Flu of 1918 40 million people died which sounds like a lot. But 73% of Canadians and Americans NEVER contracted the Spanish flu. 97.5% of those who were infected, managed to survive and recover. With modern medicine the rate of surviving is higher today. WHO estimates that a modern pandemic would kill 5 million globally instead of 40-50 million.