Flash Crowds

"Four short words sum up what has lifted most successful individuals above the crowd: a little bit more. They did all that was expected of them and a little bit more."- A. Lou Vickery (American business author)

Have you ever been stuck in traffic only to learn that it was caused by rubber-neckers slowing to observe an accident in traffic going the other way? People love to gawk.

In 1973, Larry Niven wrote a novella called "Flash Crowd" that describes the impact of having free and instantaneous teleport machines. When something novel occurs, say a skyscraper building fire, tens of thousands of gawkers would appear from around the world to watch. Criminal pickpockets, taking advantage of a crowd, would join them. Naturally authorities were not amused as the instant crowd hampers rescue efforts and causes additional problems.

In the real world we may lack star-trek transporters but we do have the Internet. If you are a small blog (like mine) and get linked to by one of the “big guys”, the effects of an instant crowd can be overwhelming. Being Slashdotted may cause an Instalanche on your Web server or put you into higher fees with your service provider for exceeding a volume limit.

Interestingly the effects of Flash Crowds are no longer limited to imaginary worlds and virtual worlds. With the Social Networking of Facebook, Twitter, and Blackberries, instant events can be announced and hordes appear at the designated site. This idea was used on TV to conceal a murder in CSI: Miami "Murder in a Flash".

The Flash Crowd effect was also observed recently in Big Bear Valley of Highland, California. Roads to this ski resort area were closed for days by a big snowfall. No deliveries were possible and residents & guests got by with stocks on hand. When the roads reopened, supply trucks were hampered by thousands of skiers and snowboarders clogging the roads, hoping to be first on the virgin snow. When resorts ran dangerously low on fuel and food, officials took the unusual step of closing the roads to tourists, allowing only delivery trucks and emergency vehicles until the resorts were restocked.

Bottom Line

Crowds can be exhilarating but they can also be dangerous. I recommend keeping a safe distance away. When driving for example, my wife & I try to avoid driving within a cluster of cars. We’ll pull ahead or drop behind to avoid the pack.

On the other hand, a crowd may be responding to something you’re not aware of. Find out the reason for the crowd. Cartoonist/author James Thurber wrote a story called “The Day the Dam Broke”. A man is running and muttering, “damn, damn.” Someone overhears and begins running also. When asked why, this second person responds, “I’m running for my life. The dam has broke.” So others start running, spreading the rumor and soon the whole town is running in panic from a non-existent tidal wave.

On a more serious note, on 9/11 in New York City, my workplace at Rockefeller Center was evacuated as a possible target site and everyone was told to go home. On my way to Grand Central train station, I’m the only person walking south. Hundreds of people are walking north. Despite feeling like a salmon going upstream, I never stopped to ask why so many people were headed north. Later I learned that the Mayor declared a mandatory evacuation of lower Manhattan. Some 300,000-500,000 people moved themselves to safer locations.

Knives - friend or foe?

“Who also hath made us able ministers of the new testament; not of the letter, but of the spirit: for the letter killeth, but the spirit giveth life.” - 2 Corinthians 3:6 KJV

It’s funny how topics of interest sometimes merge. I’ve been following two stories of upright students (both scouts) suspended for having a knife at school. The first is a six-year-old who likes to eat with a folding knife-fork-spoon he got from cub scouts. The other is an Eagle Scout who kept a 2-inch knife in his locked car’s emergency kit. Both were given maximum suspension sentences under “zero-tolerance” before the media made the school boards look foolish.

Completely unrelated is my current commuting lecture CD of Eastern Religions. Did you know that Sikhism is the fifth-largest organized religion in the world with 23 million adherents? Since they don’t proselytize for converts, little is know of them outside of Punjab in India. Sikhs are often confused with Hindus (because they come from India) and Muslims (because they wear turbans). The religion began in the early 1500’s when Guru Nanak Dev (1469-1539) could not decide whether to be Hindu or Muslim. The religion professor compared Nanak to Joseph Smith (1805–1844), the founder of the Mormon faith. Both men prayed for insight to know which of the competing faiths was “the true church”. Both received revelation that it did not yet exist, and were inspired to create a new religion. For Guru Nanak it was the revelation that "There is no Hindu, there is no Muslim" but just one God and one faith.

The religion of Sikhism evolved under ten gurus from 1538 to 1708. It was the 10th and final guru, Guru Gobind Singh, who established the rule of the “Five K’s”, five items that all baptized Sihks must wear at all times:

kēs (uncut hair which is kept covered by a turban)
kanghā (a small hair comb)
karā (an iron bracelet)
kacchā (a special undergarment)
kirpān (a small dagger)

Now at last you see how the two topics in this post cross paths. In today’s paranoid world, dagger wielding Sikhs are not tolerated. Children are banned from schools. In New York City, a compromise was reached with the Board of Education; the kirpan is allowed IF the knife is impossible to draw by being glued to the sheath. Naturally, the kirpan causes alarm at airport security checkpoints. In 2008, Sikh leaders opted out of interfaith meeting with Pope Benedict XVI in DC because security insisted they remove their kirpans before entering.

Ironically, to Sikhs the kirpan is a symbol of "Ahimsa" or non-violence. The kirpan is a tool used to prevent violence against a defenseless person when all other means to do so have failed. The kirpan also represents the power of truth to cut through untruth. It is the cutting edge of the enlightened mind.

Bottom Line

As the apostle Paul notes in 2 Corinthians 3:6, the letter of the law can be a very bad thing. Laws without common sense “killeth” freedom and personal initiative. The NY Eagle Scout mentioned above said he was amazed that school officials freaked out over a tiny knife in his car emergency kit. He pointed out that baseball bats were easily available at school and far more lethal than his small knife.

On a flight (after 9/11), my wife & I were amazed to see metal knives given to first class passengers for their meal. A pair of knitting scissors and nail clips had to be surrendered but knives were handed out. What’s the common sense in that?

Common sense says that knife paranoia is bad for preparedness. One of the best survival tools is a good knife. Use it to make kindling and strike it with flint to start a fire. It can help build a shelter, prepare food, and so on. What a shame that all persons with knives must be treated as criminals.

Emergency Alerts

“Expect the best, plan for the worst, and prepare to be surprised” - Denis Waitley

When a disaster happens how will you become informed of Emergency and Disaster Warnings?

1. The Emergency Alert System
   You’ve heard this an TV and radio as “This is a test of the National Emergency Alert System, this is only a test….BEEEEEEEP” During an actual emergency the BEEP would be followed by instructions on what to do.


2. TV & Radio Coverage (after the emergency)
   Many emergencies will knock out the power so it’s useful to have a solar powered or hand crank radio to follow the new reports and broadcasts by officials to learn what to do after the disaster has struck. When is the power coming back? What roads are closed? Is it safe to go outdoors?


3. Warning Sirens
   Many towns have sirens to warn of tornadoes, fires, nuclear power plant melt-downs, etc. My blog posting, Emergency Sirens, talks about the importance of understanding what your town sirens mean – is there an all clear signal or just danger signals? One signal or many? Continuous or repeating?


4. Residential Alerts
   Sometimes the police will drive through neighborhoods using their public address system to issue evacuation alerts, see Fire at Night.


5. NOAA Weather Bulletins
   Make sure your emergency radio or HAM radio can pick up the National Weather Service channel for 24 news and alerts. You can also buy alarm clocks or special devices to wake you in the middle of the night if there is a NOAA alert.

Bottom Line

Keep in mind that most emergency operations suffer from terrible communication. Don’t rely solely on news from officials. Use common sense also!

During the East coast blackout, I listened to NYC emergency center radio reports at my office for news when railroad service would be restored. (Electric trains were stuck and needed to be moved out of the way) I slept overnight at my office. The next morning my wife called to say a friend could see trains moving so I should ignore the radio and get to the train station. Sure enough diesel engines were running and I got home.

My first hint of 9-11 after getting off the commuter train in NYC was a crowd of people staring at TVs in a bank’s display window (my first thought –was, Oh no, a stock market collapse). Nothing was said on the train or at the train station about the World Trade Center. No sirens in midtown Manhattan. I got to work and about an hour later was told that all non-essential personnel should go home because Rockefeller Center could be a target. While walking south back to Grand Central Station I passed hordes of people all walking north along Madison Ave. I had no clue why. (Turns out the mayor had evacuated the entire southern region of Manhattan) Next I’m fortunate to be on one of the last trains out of the city before the lines are shut down. It wasn’t until I got home and watched TV that things started to make sense.

Preparing your Feet for Disasters

“A radical is a person with both feet firmly planted in the air.” - anon

Today I recommend the article Preparing Your Feet for TEOTWAWKI, by The Surgeon. It has too many excellent details about foot care to summarize here so go read it (you’ll have to scroll down past the annoying ad that fills the screen).

Bottom Line
We take our feet and ankles for granted until they fail us. While it’s possible to put an arm in a sling and let it heal, it is MUCH harder to heal a leg injury in the knee, ankle or foot. Even with a crutch you’ll find yourself putting weight on the injury and slowing the healing process.
When 9-11 hit NYC many people walked out of the city to friends or to home; a distance of many miles. I was working on 50th street at the time and when our company closed for the day and everyone told to go home (evacuate), I was amazed as I walked south to Grand Central Station to catch a train. I felt like a salmon going upstream as 5th Ave and Madison Ave were filled with thousands of people all walking north. I learned afterwards that the mayor had ordered a complete evacuation of lower Manhattan. With subways closed or overwhelmed, that left walking.
The lesson I learned from this was to keep a pair of sneakers in my desk drawer at work just in case. I once walked a few miles in dress shoes and got terrible blisters.

P.S. TEOTWAWKI = The End of The World As We Know It.

Emotional Recovery

"The sun will come out tomorrow" - Annie the Musical

Today's blog is taken from the Red Cross website "Picking Up the Pieces after a Disaster". While the physical destruction after an emergency is plain to see, the emotional damage is equally important to recognize and address.

You may be surprised at how you and others may feel after a disaster... People may experience fear concerning their safety or that of a loved one, shock, disbelief, grief, anger and guilt. Memory problems, anxiety and/or depression are also possible after experiencing a disaster.

Children, senior citizens, people with disabilities and people for whom English is not their first language are especially at risk. It is important to talk with children and elderly people in a calm way and let them know that you will help them find a safe place to stay.

Children become afraid that the event will happen again and that they or their
family may be injured or killed.

Young children do not understand the notice of replay on TV. When they see pictures again and again of a tornado or storm, they think the event is live and reoccurring. In NYC on 9-11 many children were terrified by frequent reshowings of a plane hitting the World Trade Center and the towers collapsing. For them the event kept rehappening.

Some basic steps you can take to meet physical and emotional needs

• Try to return to as many of your personal and family routines as possible. For children this can mean having a favorite stuffed animal to hold and familiar pajamas to sleep in.
• Get rest and drink plenty of water.
• Limit your exposure to the sights and sounds of disaster, especially on television, the radio and in the newspapers.
• Focus on the positive.
• Recognize your own feelings.
• Reach out and accept help from others.
• Do something you enjoy. Do something as a family that you have all enjoyed in the past.
• Stay connected with your family and/or other support systems.
• Realize that, sometimes, recovery can take time.

BOTTOM LINE

If you observe unusual behavior in your children, which you think may be caused by a reaction to the disaster, contact your local Red Cross chapter, child's counselor or community professional for additional information and help. The Red Cross can also arrange for you to talk with a member of its disaster staff who has special expertise in dealing with disaster stress.

Community Communication Plan

"Most people are good. They may not be saints, but they are good."
- Jimmy Wales founder of Wikipedia

It's funny how reading one web site can lead to another. I use Google alerts to spot new blogs and web pages dealing with emergency planning. This led to a page on what guns to buy to protect your supplies that I linked to yesterday. That site (From the Bunker) referenced the Disaster Communications Plan for Antioch, CA 1st Ward.

I am quite impressed by this plan. It spells out how to buy a walkie talkie, buying spare batteries, when to call, what channels to use, and how to call in and report. This is a communication plan that could be adopted by any neighborhood watch group, community organizers, or other churches.

When 9/11 occurred the minister of my local church activated our emergency calling tree to find out if anyone was missing since many of us commute to New York City to work. In a phone tree, the leader calls 3 to 5 people. These in turn call 3-5 others that are assigned to them. ( 25 + 5 + 1 people in the tree so far) . This third layer of people may call 3-5 more bringing the number of people covered 150 or so. Now in order for this to work a few rules need to be followed:

1. The calls out must be made. If person A can not reach B in the tree, don't break the chain. If B is unavailable, person A should call all the people C assigned to B so they don't get dropped out.
2. To carry out rule 1 each person should have a listing of the complete phone tree with all phone numbers.
3. Report back up the tree as little as possible. Report immediately after making your assigned 3-5 calls so the person above you knows the phone chain is unbroken and to report what you learned. Next wait for the people you called to call back with results if they are assigned to contact others. Don't call back up with each call you get. Collect the results and report back on some assigned schedule, say every 30 mintues or hourly.
4. Use the tree in reverse order to report back. Don't hit the person at the top of the tree with 150 calls. Call back the person who called you. If you can not reach the person who called you, then call one level up. Don't skip a level just because the phone is busy. Be patient but reasonable (say 15 mintues).
5. Don't neglect to report good news. It is just as valuable to report that family X was called and reports all is well so no one has to call them a second time. Keep track of what you learn with check marks on the phone tree list or some other note keeping system.

Bottom Line
The phone tree rules look complicated but really they are just common sense. Spread out the burden of making calls and be responsible and reasonable to make sure there are no breaks in the chain, no unreasonable delays, and no duplication of effort.

Phone trees are not just for emergencies. They can be used to contact a large group when an event is rescheduled or moved, etc. Let the power of trees work for you.

Red Cross - Make a Plan

"I was only one woman alone, and had no power to move to action full-fed, sleek-
coated, ease-loving, pleasure-seeking, well-paid, and well-placed countrymen in
this war- trampled, dead, old land, each one afraid that he should be called
upon to do something." - Clara Barton, founder of American Red Cross

The second step of the "Be Red Cross Ready" plan is "Make a Plan".

• Talk with your family (about emergency plans and where supplies are stored)
• Plan (house drills)
• Learn how to turn off gas lines and how to use fire extinguishers
• Plan for alternative escape routes
• Include pets in your evacuation plans
• Select two meeting places

1. Right outside your home in case of house fires. (Pick a neighbor's driveway, the mailbox, etc. but be sure to pick ONE place. Lives have been lost when parents or fire fighters return to a burning house to rescue child that has already escaped.)
2. Also pick a gathering place outside your town. (Take for example the Indian Point Power point in my neighborhood. If evacuation were ordered one parent might be at home, another at work and the kids at different schools. No one is allowed into the danger zone and the phone lines are overwhelmed. Will your family know where to travel to?)

Bottom Line
The important parts of planning are one - have a plan, and two - communicating the plan to everyone in your family, friends and neighbors. During 9/11 some companies in the World Trade towers had emergency plans to recover corporate computer data but the plan was known ONLY to one Emergency Planner who died when the towers collasped. It is vital to share and communicate the plan as much as possible.

FEMA to the rescue?

Who you gonna call? - Ghost Busters

After 9-11 and Hurricane Katrina, a 2007 Red Cross survey found that 93 percent of Americans were still not prepared for a disaster. This is doubly alarming given that the media showed very clearly with Katrina how disasters can overload emergency responders, especially during the first 12 to 72 hours. The US has only one firefighter for every 280 people and one police officer for every 385 people. That means that in an emergency most people "are going to be on their own for possibly 48 to 72 hours," says David Paulison of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It is just not physically possible for every person to be rescued immediately or even within 24 hours.

A different survey conducted last year indicates that most Georgians aren't aware of what supplies they need in order to be prepared for a natural disaster, or — even worse — a terrorist attack, when supply lines, communication and electricity are interrupted. Adults surveyed thought they had enough supplies on hand to deal with a disaster, but, when pressed, they listed only a flashlight, a basic first-aid kit and some nonperishable food. About 80 percent acknowledged they do not have other necessities like extra prescription medications, a face mask, maps and cash. Only 44 percent of Georgians knew that they should be prepared to survive on their own for at least three days.

In a recent NY conference, disaster officials were taught that telling the public "to call FEMA is wrong." FEMA is not a first-responder agency. In the event of a disaster, local agencies are responsible for taking care of village and town citizens, not the federal government. In fact, FEMA does not step in until county and state resources have already been used and exceeded. In NY there is a $4 million threshold of damage that has to be met before a county like Suffolk can reach out to the state for disaster assistance. Only after $23.5 million worth of damage is done, can the sate then reach out to the federal government (FEMA).

This confusion over the "chain of command" caused problems during Katrina. The Mayor of New Orleans was loudly yelling for President Bush and the National Guard to assist. However the federal government is only allowed to act when legally requested by the state Governor. During Katrina the Governor was reluctant ask for help and delayed giving the National Guard permission because ultimately the State of Louisiana would have to reimburse the federal governments for the cost of the assistance. Until the full scope of the emergency became clear, it was not obvious to the state which would cost more - local damage or the cost of outside help.

Bottom Line
Governments are SLOW to act in emergencies and limited by red tape and budgets. Ditto for the American Red Cross. Don't count on outside help. Be sure you can take care of yourself and your family.

Fresh Air

"Water and air, the two essential fluids on which all life depends, have become global garbage cans." - Jacques Yves Cousteau

Air - it's everywhere and we take it for granted. But in yesterday's tip, the Rule of Threes, we learned that the #1 priority in emergencies is fresh AIR. Consider:

• 1st Aid and CPR courses teach "ABC"; the first things you check are the Airway, Breathing and then Circulation (pulse/heartbeat).
  
• According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, every year, more than 500 people die in the U. S. from accidental Carbon Monoxide poisoning.
  
• Again according to the CDC, almost 200 children die each year from choking. It is estimated that more than 17,500 children 14 years of age or younger are treated in U.S. emergency departments for choking episodes annually.
  
• During home or office fires, the major cause of death is the smoke filled air, not burning in the flames. Stay low to the floor where the good air can be found.
  
• When miners are trapped underground, foul air is the leading cause of death.
  
• If the dirty air in a disaster doesn't kill you, it could still give you some serious lung injuries. Asbestos or other pollutants at the scene could raise your risk for later lung cancer. Some vivid images from 9-11 show persons completely coated in dust as they fled from the collapsing towers. Today there are concerns about what was in that 9-11 dust and the long term effects to the survivors and rescue workers.

Bottom Line:

1. Take a moment to think about the air quality when there's smoke, pollutants, or when you are confined to a small space like a car or room. Don't wait until you feel faint - that is often too late.
2. When firemen are wearing an oxygen tank and mask - what have you got? Hopefully your emergency kit will have a simple face mask to keep airborne particles and dust out of your lungs. No face mask? Then use a shirt, handkerchief, or scarf to cover your face when the air is thick.

Tomorrow: Carbon Monoxide