Impact of a flu pandemic

"I wish that you would help build a global system to detect each new disease or disaster as quickly as it emerges or occurs." – Larry Brilliant’s TED Prize wish

One of my favorite web sites is TED.com, “Ideas worth spreading”. TED stands for “Technology, Entertainment, Design” and holds an annual conference where fifty of the most creative minds in the world are given a brief chance (18 minutes) to present their beliefs or works. Over 400 of these talks can be freely viewed at TED.com.

In addition, each year three “exceptional individuals” are awared a TED Prize of $100,000 plus "One Wish to Change the World." Each recipient presents their World Changing Wish at the conference and TED helps organize companies and participants to bring the wish to life. For example, the 2006 TED Prize winner, Larry Brilliant, wished to build a global system for early disease and disaster detection.

Larry was one of the team leaders from WHO that helped eradicate Smallpox from the world. In response to his wish, Google donated $14 million to Larry and five other organizations trying to prevent pandemics. With his TED Prize and Google money, Larry created, InSTEDD, to serve as a free data collection and information organization for the current status of and best response to global infectious diseases. Whereas WHO collects data only from official (i.e slow) government sources, InsTEDD searches the Internet for live outbreaks of disease. The first hint of an outbreak may reveal itself with a spike in Google searches in a region for headaches, nausea, bleeding, etc.

Bottom Line

Everything above was a long introduction to the ideas I really wanted to present. In 2007 InSTEDD published a booklet called, Pandemic Influenza, Preparation and Response: A Citizen’s Guide which I recommend reading. It was updated this month to include Swine flu.

Here is what the guide says about the impact of a flu pandemic.

Communities will be affected simultaneously
• At least 30% of the overall population may become infected in a severe pandemic
• Absenteeism could be upward of 50% in a severe pandemic
• A pandemic is likely to last for 12 to 18 months
• Communities could be affected by several waves lasting 6 to 8 weeks each
• Vaccines and antiviral drugs for pandemic influenza will be in short supply, may be of limited effectiveness, and will likely not be available to most communities
• Most of the ill may wish to seek medical care [BUT ] All healthcare systems will be overwhelmed
• Health facilities … may be inadvisable to enter owing to increased chances of exposure to the virus
• People and communities will likely be on their own without the help of mutual aid from other communities, hospitals, or other public services

Routine services may be disrupted
• Hospitals, schools, government offices, and the post office may be disrupted
• Telephone service, the Internet, commercial radio and TV broadcasts could also be interrupted if the electric power grid falters or fails
• Stores and businesses may be closed and/or will have limited supplies
• Local ATMs and banks may be shut down, and cash will be in short supply
• Public transportation services and communication may be disrupted
• Gasoline supplies may be limited or unavailable
• Travel could be restricted by fear, quarantine or curfew
• Public gatherings may be canceled

Note that there is nothing said here about dying. If you’ve had a bad case of flu you’ll recall that you were sick as a dog for days and unable to work or do much of anything. Even a non-lethal flu can bring a country to its knees if enough people are sick. A pandemic means widespread sickness, not necessarily widespread death. (Altough at times I wised I was dead the last time I had the flu. Ugh!)

UPDATE on Swine Flu:
A new study suggests that Swine flu has a basic reproductive rate between 2.2 and 3.1 others. This means that every sick person will on average infect 2 or 3 other people. Normal flu has a rate of 1.2 and the Spanish flu of 1918 had a rate of 2-3. (Interestingly measles has a rate of 12-18! Very infectious!)
The death rate for Swine flu is now estimated at 0.4%. The Spanish flu US death rate was 0.64% but as high as 2.0% worldwide.

For the US we are not talking about huge differences here. By my calculation, Swine flu is equally as contagious and two-thirds as deadly as the great 1918 pandemic in America. This does not make it “safe”. And yet nations are asking WHO to downgrade the alert, Scale for Flu Warnings Overly Simplistic, Countries Tell WHO.

UPDATE 2
Some Elderly Immune to Swine Flu? It seems that a close variant of this flu may have spread in the early half of the 20th century. Many seniors have antibodies to Swine Flu by surviving it decades ago.