Thursday, January 21, 2010

Record Unemployment

"We have walked a substantial distance back from the economic abyss and are on the path toward economic recovery. Most importantly, we have seen a substantial change in the trend of job loss."-Sept. 2009, Larry Summers, Obama's top economic adviser

The Obama White House keeps saying the recession is over and their recovery plan worked but the real numbers tell a different story. The White House is pleased that December unemployment stayed at "only" 10% and did not climb. But this ignores two facts.

1. The Holiday Season is a peak time for employment (lots of late hours and Christmas crowds require temporary staff)

2. The official unemployment number does not count "discouraged" workers who have given up trying to find a job. When everyone truly unemployed is counted the value is 17%.

Here is graph that also shows reality quite plainly. The total number of people working continues to fall despite the 1 Trillion dollar stimulus. In fact 3.2 million jobs have been lost since the stimulus was approved.


Bottom Line

Do not expect the economy to recover quickly in 2010. We have not yet seen the bottom of this recession.

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