The Return of Duck and Cover

“If you asked me to name the three scariest threats facing the human race, I would give the same answer that most people would: nuclear war, global warming and [Microsoft] Windows.”
- comedian Dave Barry

Last month the New York Times published a Science article on the US strategy for surviving a nuclear attack.

Suppose the unthinkable happened, and terrorists struck New York or another big city with an atom bomb. What should people there do? The government has a surprising new message: Do not flee. Get inside any stable building and don’t come out till officials say it’s safe.

What amazes me is that a NYT science writer should consider this "surprising" and "new". There is no mention in the article of the Duck and Cover campaign of the 1950's where school children (and adults) were taught to get under cover immediately. Fortunately the layout editors have longer memories. The media accompanying the story include a 1950's photo of office workers heading for a basement shelter, a family in the 1960's running to there backyard fallout shelter, and a graphic that is labeled "Duck and Cover".

The advice is based on recent scientific analyses showing that a nuclear attack is much more survivable if you immediately shield yourself from the lethal radiation that follows a blast, a simple tactic seen as saving hundreds of thousands of lives. Even staying in a car, the studies show, would reduce casualties by more than 50 percent; hunkering down in a basement would be better by far.

Again this is old news. There are many ways to die in a nuclear blast and sheltering helps protect against each:
- Poisoned by Radiation
- Burned by the Heat Flash
- Pierced by shrapnel in the explosive wind of the blast
- Struck by falling objects as buildings collapse

A serious but non-lethal danger is blindness - DO NOT look at the blast!

Administration officials argue that the cold war created an unrealistic sense of fatalism about a terrorist nuclear attack. “It’s more survivable than most people think,” said an official deeply involved in the planning, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The key is avoiding nuclear fallout.”

The important thing is to be informed and not panic. The Instapundit notes that, "Even back in the 1960s there were Civil Defense debates on whether [or not] to give warning in case of an attack, based on studies that showed more people would be sheltered by where they happened to be than would benefit from a warning, since many people would immediately either try to flee, or to return to their homes, winding up in more exposed positions when the bomb went off."

Bottom Line

Again from the Instapundit, "I find that my law students — effectively post-Cold War generation — know next to nothing about nuclear weapons, fallout, and basic civil-defense stuff that most people knew back when I was a kid. So education is warranted."

Here's a 2 page summary by Homeland Security, Planning for a Nuclear Detonation

And a new 135 page report called Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation

Nuclear War

"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room." - from the movie Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

I've recently read two books about life after a nuclear war. The first was a classic called Alas, Babylon, written in 1959 by Pat Frank. The second was One Second After written by William R. Forstchen this year. Both follow the efforts of a former soldier to rally his town and pull people together to survive the coming hard times after America is hit by nukes. In both cases the town is outside the fallout zone so radiation is not a primary concern. Instead the enemy is roving bands of bandits and the harshness of nature when people are deprived of electricity and modern devices like cars, refrigeration, and medicine.

But beyond the common background, these books are as different as the island adventure/survival stories of Robinson Crusoe vs Lord of the Flies. In Alas, Babylon (like Crusoe), American ingenuity and virtue wins the day as people work together and rebuild civilization. In "One Second After" like "Lord of the Flies" the baser side of man is seen when push comes to shove. It's dog eat dog (or literally man eat man).

Author William Forstchen wrote a darker book to show how overly dependent Americans have become upon technology. In his book three EMPs (Electromagnetic Pulse bombs) are exploded high over America by persons unknown and everything electronic is fried. Every plane in the air crashes. Every car after 1988 or so is useless (the onboard computer chip is dead). There is no refrigeration and soon no food. Near the end the hero of the book is told he did well with his town's survival ratio of 20% after one year of starvation.

Bottom Line
One thing that stood out from me in these books is how local civilization became with no cars, no radio, no TV, no phone, no computers or Internet. Your world contracts to where you can walk to. Each town becomes an island of independent survival. It reminded me of American in the 1700's. In a history of the American Revolution lecture I'm listening to, the professor constantly talks about the role towns and town legislatures played. The states held a lessor degree of authority and federal government was non-existent until about 1787. Quite a reversal of today's world.

Modern Warfare

“War is Hell” – General Sherman, US Civil War

I suspect that when most of us picture “warfare” we imagine movie scenes from WWII or Vietnam with soldiers in the fields dodging artillery shells and bullets and land mines. But war has many faces, some modern/some ancient, including espionage, biological, financial and morale attacks.

Two days ago I discussed a WSJ article claiming that the CIA has found sleeping “time-bombs” in US utility computer systems. The concern is that Russians or Chinese could shut down our power grid or water systems via Internet espionage.

Most people would guess that biological/chemical warfare is something new with germs & DNA experiments and Anthrax in the mail. But think back to WWI and mustard gas attacks. Two centuries ago US pioneers gave Indians blankets from smallpox victims in an early attempt at viral warfare. I suspect bio/chemical war goes even further back.

A recent article in Politico.com describes how the Pentagon preps for economic warfare. In the first every financial war-game simulation, five teams representing The United States, Russia, China, East Asia and “all others” battled for supremacy with the world economy as the battleground. China won by taking advantage of damage that the US and Russia inflicted upon each.

Lastly there is the concept of demoralizing your enemy in the hope of encouraging an easy surrender. Sadly I see the US doing this to itself. Universities and the media love to portray the US as the cause of the world’s problem; or as an especially evil or unjust nation. Our own President apologizied for past US actions during his European Tour. I’m reminded of Pogo saying, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

Bottom Line
The principles of warfare have not changed – soldiers, arms, espionage, spying, finance, morale, etc. But what has changed is the technology of warfare. Modern weapons in the arsenal of death allow individuals to kill millions with a computer virus, a biological virus, a suitcase nuclear bomb, and so on. Few people realize how dangerous this truly is. In the past it took the resources of a nation to start a war resulting in massive death. Now a millionaire, like Osama Bin Laden or George Soros, can fund a private war against America or a President they dislike. So far, we have been extremely lucky that physical terrorist attacks have been small scale. We have not been so lucky against morale attacks. Example:

"At the recent meeting of G-20 nations in London, officials from many nations agreed on one thing -- that the United States is to blame for the world recession. [AND] President Obama agreed." But in realitiy IT DIDN'T START HERE

"America, to hear President Obama tell it, is an occasionally arrogant nation struggling with shameful legacies of racism and discrimination, one that bears a large share of the blame for the world's economic and climate crises. Oh, and our train service is lousy." - Obama tries out role as apologizer-in-chief

Update

Speaking of one-man espionage, "PHONE SABOTAGE IN SAN JOSE." One man climbed 10 feet down a manhole and clipped five or so fiber optic phone lines cutting off phone service, ATMs, and 911 for Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties. “It’s kind of like an earthquake” said one victim.

Nuclear Fallout

“Everybody's a mad scientist, and life is their lab. We're all trying to experiment to find a way to live, to solve problems, to fend off madness and chaos.” - David Cronenberg

The definitive guide to surviving nuclear fallout appears to be Nuclear War Survival Skills by Kresson H Kearny. Chapter 1 is devoted to debunking the many myths that there is no chance of survival. Tens of thousands of people did survive the atom bombs dropped in WWII and went on to live "normal" lives with non-mutant children.

Yet if you're not convinced that Nuclear War is survivable (for some), then consider two other scenarios where knowledge of radiation skills could save your life: dirty bombs and nuclear power plants. A dirty bomb uses a normal explosion (like TNT) to spread radioactive dust. The result is radiation poisoning but without the mushroom cloud. It is far easier for terrorist to build a dirty bomb than a nuclear bomb.

Another radiation risk is nuclear power. With the exception of 3-mile island, the US has an excellent safety history for nuclear power. But as plants age and old fuel rods pile up there is a growing possibility of a nuclear accident. Here in NY, a leak was found in the holding pond for old fuel rods at the Indian Point reactors. The authorities claim the radiation leaked into the Hudson River was within safety guidelines (this time).

Bottom Line

Old nuclear fuel is a security and safety risk ignored by many. After much debate the "best" solution found was to bury old fuel rods inside Yucca Mountain in Nevada. Billions of dollars were spent building tunnels but Nevada has never liked the idea of being the dumping site for nuclear trash and has tried many times to kill the project. With the current DC administration, Nevada appears to have succeeded. This means dozens of sites across America will continue to store radioactive rods in places were never meant to be long term. These sites are also at risk for attack by anyone wanting to collect radioactive materials to make a dirty bomb.