Are nuclear facilities secure?

After 9-11 there was some discussion about safety at nuclear power plants; would a plane crashing into a cooling tower cause a meltdown or not. Opinion was mixed. Some expert evident says, "The risk that planes will crash into nuclear plants and release potentially lethal clouds of radioactivity is significantly higher than official estimates" while the Nuclear Energy Institute (the nuclear energy industry’s policy organization) disagrees, "Structures that house reactor fuel at U.S. nuclear power plants would protect against a release of radiation even if struck by a large commercial jetliner".

Whoever is correct, I suspect this statement from SecurityManagement.com hits the nail on the head, "The United States is woefully unprepared to protect its nuclear power plants from a terrorist attack, a former CIA officer divulged on CNN.com"

Consider this recent story,

Tennessee's Y-12 National Security Complex houses 300 to 400 metric tons of bomb-grade uranium. The Oak Ridge plant, enriched the uranium for the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II and continues to be a mainstay of the U.S. nuclear defense program. The Department of Energy has repeatedly claimed that security at the site is robust enough to defend against more than a dozen heavily-armed terrorists with inside knowledge of security procedures.

And yet, last month,

Three peace activists — including an 82-year-old nun — infiltrated the highest-security area of the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in a predawn protest Saturday, reportedly evading guards and cutting through three or four fences in order to spray-paint messages, hang banners and pour human blood at the site where warhead parts are manufactured and the nation’s stockpile of bomb-grade uranium is stored.

I have to agree with this conclusion from the HuffingtonPost,

When a nuclear weapons facility can't stop infiltration by an octogenarian nun, it's time to reassess its security standards.

Steaming Semen, no Bull!

“If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull----.”
-W. C. Fields

In today's security concious world, everything is seen as suspicious. Recently a United plane was returned to the airport because a passenger was reading a book about airplanes. Perhaps they thought he was planning his attack during the flight itself? Or brushing up on the details? A policeman quickly released the passenger when he saw the book was about "Snoopy Red Baron stuff...", i.e. triplanes from 1921.

On August 23 in Nashville, Tennesse, an on-ramp to Interstate 65 was closed and fire and emergency HAZMAT crews called to investigate unmarked canisters alongside the road which were smelly and steaming. Naturally foul play was suspected. Could this be a bomb or a chemical attack? Bus tickets were found nearby and it was determined that the canisters had fallen out of the cargo department of a Greyhound bus. The driver was located and he identified the canisters as containing frozen bull sperm packed in liquid nitrogen from Columbus, Ohio and en route to a breeding facility in Laredo, Texas. Depending on the quality of the bull parent(s?) the lost sperm could be worth as much as $80,000.

Since the canisters used liquid nitrogen, they are not allowed on planes and must travel by ground. A Greyhound spokesperson said it's not uncommon that the bus was carrying bull sperm. If that make you nervous (eew, cudies on my luggage), Greyhound says that cargo is stored in a compartment separate from passenger belongings.

Bottom Line

It's good to stay alert but let's not overdo going to extremes.

The Return of Duck and Cover

“If you asked me to name the three scariest threats facing the human race, I would give the same answer that most people would: nuclear war, global warming and [Microsoft] Windows.”
- comedian Dave Barry

Last month the New York Times published a Science article on the US strategy for surviving a nuclear attack.

Suppose the unthinkable happened, and terrorists struck New York or another big city with an atom bomb. What should people there do? The government has a surprising new message: Do not flee. Get inside any stable building and don’t come out till officials say it’s safe.

What amazes me is that a NYT science writer should consider this "surprising" and "new". There is no mention in the article of the Duck and Cover campaign of the 1950's where school children (and adults) were taught to get under cover immediately. Fortunately the layout editors have longer memories. The media accompanying the story include a 1950's photo of office workers heading for a basement shelter, a family in the 1960's running to there backyard fallout shelter, and a graphic that is labeled "Duck and Cover".

The advice is based on recent scientific analyses showing that a nuclear attack is much more survivable if you immediately shield yourself from the lethal radiation that follows a blast, a simple tactic seen as saving hundreds of thousands of lives. Even staying in a car, the studies show, would reduce casualties by more than 50 percent; hunkering down in a basement would be better by far.

Again this is old news. There are many ways to die in a nuclear blast and sheltering helps protect against each:
- Poisoned by Radiation
- Burned by the Heat Flash
- Pierced by shrapnel in the explosive wind of the blast
- Struck by falling objects as buildings collapse

A serious but non-lethal danger is blindness - DO NOT look at the blast!

Administration officials argue that the cold war created an unrealistic sense of fatalism about a terrorist nuclear attack. “It’s more survivable than most people think,” said an official deeply involved in the planning, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The key is avoiding nuclear fallout.”

The important thing is to be informed and not panic. The Instapundit notes that, "Even back in the 1960s there were Civil Defense debates on whether [or not] to give warning in case of an attack, based on studies that showed more people would be sheltered by where they happened to be than would benefit from a warning, since many people would immediately either try to flee, or to return to their homes, winding up in more exposed positions when the bomb went off."

Bottom Line

Again from the Instapundit, "I find that my law students — effectively post-Cold War generation — know next to nothing about nuclear weapons, fallout, and basic civil-defense stuff that most people knew back when I was a kid. So education is warranted."

Here's a 2 page summary by Homeland Security, Planning for a Nuclear Detonation

And a new 135 page report called Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation

Dirty Bombs

[A] radioactive "dirty bomb" (...) spreads radioactive material that is highly toxic to humans and can cause mass death and injury. - Attorney General John Ashcroft, 2002

An analysis on Stratfor.com downplays the danger of Dirty Bombs. These types of bombs use common explosives to spread radioactive materials (hence ‘dirty’). There is no nuclear reaction, no mushroom cloud, just a normal explosion that coats an area with radioactive dust. Since they are much easier to build than an atom bomb, and radioactive byproducts are easier to acquire, there reasonable concern that terrorists will someday use dirty bombs.

The common media portrayal of dirty bombs is that they will “immediately cause hundreds or even thousands of deaths.” Not true, says Stratfor. A dirty bomb is not a “weapon of mass destruction” but rather a weapon of mass “disruption”. Immediate deaths would result from the explosion itself and the resulting panic when the bomb is found to be “dirty”. The dirty effects of the radioactivity are longer term and most people will be safely decontaminated (eventually).

The real problem is economic and psychological. Since anyone living or working in a radioactive area will sicken and die over days/weeks/years, the area must be cordoned off and abandoned until cleaned. A total cleanup will require relocating everyone, tearing down the buildings, streets, sidewalks, and scraping the soil. Not at all cheap if the area is downtown NY, London or DC. And not nice if the target is something historical and irreplaceable.

To back up their analysis downplaying the danger, Stratfor looks at the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in northern Ukraine. This was bigger than any possible dirty bomb and in fact more than one hundred times the radiation of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan. The Chernobyl explosion killed 31 persons in the immediate aftermath. Over several decades it may contribute to the deaths of 9,000 people from radiation poisoning. But many of those affected by the radiation are still alive more than 20 years after the accident. Today, 5.5 million people live in the contaminated zone.

Fortunately for civilization, it’s not easy to use radiation as a mass weapon. Yes, a concentrated radioactive substance can kill individuals quickly with direct exposure – but such items are rare and quantities small. With dirty bombs the radiation is spread far and wide by the explosion; maximizing the number of people impacted but weakening the lethality.

Bottom Line

What should you do if you are a victim of a dirty bomb?

• Don’t panic!
  
• The CDC recommends sheltering inside a building with intact walls. If you’re outside, cover your mouth and nose to avoid breathing in the radioactive dust (VERY IMPORTANT), avoid touching anything, and get inside the nearest walled shelter quickly. While outside, clothing is an effective shield against energetic alpha particles but if you breath those same particles in – damage will be done.
  
• If inside a damaged building, move to an undamaged interior room.
  
• When you come in from outside, remove your shoes and outer clothing at the door. Up to 90% of the radioactive dust on you is on your clothes. Don’t spread it around your shelter. If possible seal your clothes, shoes, and breathing cloth/mask it in a plastic bag or other disposable storage. You don’t want to be near these clothes afterwards (or ever again).
  
• Shut all windows, outside doors, and fireplace dampers. Turn off fans and heating and air-conditioning systems that bring in air from the outside. It is not necessary to put duct tape or plastic around doors or windows.
  
• If outside or exposed, shower or wash ALL exposed skin with soap and water to remove any remaining dust. Be sure to wash your hair. Don’t put contaminated clothes back on. Don’t forget that your washing area may now be slightly radioactive from the rinsed off dust. Initially the washing water should be safe – water inside pipes at the time of the explosion is protected. But over time as water is used, you’ll be drawing from lakes and reservoirs that may have been exposed.
  
• Cover any open wounds to keep radioactive dust out of your blood stream.
  
• If you’re at home and have pets outside, get them indoors and wash them completely.
  
• Tune to the local radio or television news for more instructions.
  
• Don’t go outside until instructed to by authorities. When leaving your temporary shelter, cover up 100% with clean clothes/coat/blanket. You’ll need new shoes or a substitute. You’ll repeat the process of disposing the outer clothing layers and washing when you return to a shelter.
  
• Do not attempt to rescue your children at their school. They should be safe in a school shelter. You endanger yourself by traveling and contaminate the school shelter by demanding entrance or even opening the door.
  
• Don’t eat or drink from anything that was open and possibly contaminated by dust. Sealed food is ok but be sure to wash the outside container first. Avoid drinking public faucet water until authorities say it is safe. You don’t want to allow anything radioactive inside your body.
  
• If all goes well, your exposure will be no worse than an intensive medical X-ray and there will be no symptoms. However if you experience nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and swelling and redness of the skin then you were exposed to a higher level of radiation and need medical attention ASAP.

Resources

CDC Public Service Announcements for a Dirty Bomb
(what you hope to never hear on your radio)
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/firsthours/word/messages_dirtybomb.doc

Nuclear War Survival Skills by Kresson H Kearny.

CNN
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/HEALTH/06/10/cohen.dirty.bomb.otsc/

Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb

Terror over Detroit

“No man dies for what he knows to be true. Men die for what they want to be true, for what some terror in their hearts tells them is not true.” - Oscar Wilde

On December 25, a terrorist tried to blow up an airplane as it was landing at Detroit, Michigan. I encourage you to read the first hand account, Over Detroit Skies, by passenger Roey Rosenblith. He's very honest about the experience and his reaction to what happened. For instance he talks about the urge to flee but having nowhere to go when aboard a plane.

Another important thing to learn from this story is that the "incident" is just the beginning of a long process of response and recovery. Passengers were not allowed to leave the plane or even to leave their seats after landing. When they finally deplaned, they were escorted to private briefings with 250 police/custom agents/security personnel. Cell phone calls were not allowed to waiting family members. The processing took hours and connecting flights were missed. At least they got vouchers for a meal and a hotel room.

Bottom Line

In any disaster, the hurricane, tornado, fire, etc is just the beginning. There are survival needs and emotional shock immediately afterwards. This is followed by a long and slow recovery with lots of paperwork, bureaucracy, and delays. It is frequently weeks or months for life to return to normal.

Modern Warfare

“War is Hell” – General Sherman, US Civil War

I suspect that when most of us picture “warfare” we imagine movie scenes from WWII or Vietnam with soldiers in the fields dodging artillery shells and bullets and land mines. But war has many faces, some modern/some ancient, including espionage, biological, financial and morale attacks.

Two days ago I discussed a WSJ article claiming that the CIA has found sleeping “time-bombs” in US utility computer systems. The concern is that Russians or Chinese could shut down our power grid or water systems via Internet espionage.

Most people would guess that biological/chemical warfare is something new with germs & DNA experiments and Anthrax in the mail. But think back to WWI and mustard gas attacks. Two centuries ago US pioneers gave Indians blankets from smallpox victims in an early attempt at viral warfare. I suspect bio/chemical war goes even further back.

A recent article in Politico.com describes how the Pentagon preps for economic warfare. In the first every financial war-game simulation, five teams representing The United States, Russia, China, East Asia and “all others” battled for supremacy with the world economy as the battleground. China won by taking advantage of damage that the US and Russia inflicted upon each.

Lastly there is the concept of demoralizing your enemy in the hope of encouraging an easy surrender. Sadly I see the US doing this to itself. Universities and the media love to portray the US as the cause of the world’s problem; or as an especially evil or unjust nation. Our own President apologizied for past US actions during his European Tour. I’m reminded of Pogo saying, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

Bottom Line
The principles of warfare have not changed – soldiers, arms, espionage, spying, finance, morale, etc. But what has changed is the technology of warfare. Modern weapons in the arsenal of death allow individuals to kill millions with a computer virus, a biological virus, a suitcase nuclear bomb, and so on. Few people realize how dangerous this truly is. In the past it took the resources of a nation to start a war resulting in massive death. Now a millionaire, like Osama Bin Laden or George Soros, can fund a private war against America or a President they dislike. So far, we have been extremely lucky that physical terrorist attacks have been small scale. We have not been so lucky against morale attacks. Example:

"At the recent meeting of G-20 nations in London, officials from many nations agreed on one thing -- that the United States is to blame for the world recession. [AND] President Obama agreed." But in realitiy IT DIDN'T START HERE

"America, to hear President Obama tell it, is an occasionally arrogant nation struggling with shameful legacies of racism and discrimination, one that bears a large share of the blame for the world's economic and climate crises. Oh, and our train service is lousy." - Obama tries out role as apologizer-in-chief

Update

Speaking of one-man espionage, "PHONE SABOTAGE IN SAN JOSE." One man climbed 10 feet down a manhole and clipped five or so fiber optic phone lines cutting off phone service, ATMs, and 911 for Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties. “It’s kind of like an earthquake” said one victim.

Guy Fawkes Day

“Remember, remember the fifth of November,
The gunpowder, treason and plot,
I know of no reason
Why the gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.”
- British Rhyme

If you saw the movie V or read the graphic novel of the same name you'll recall the mask worn by the leading character V. It is a Guy Fawkes mask which is worn on November 5 and burned in effigy in some British commonwealth countries.
Americans may think terrorism is new or started with 9-11, but in fact terrorism is quite old. Here is just one example from 403 years ago today. On 5 November 1605 a number of Catholic conspirators, including Guy Fawkes, attempted to blow up the Houses of Parliament in London, England. The plot intended to kill the king, James the 1st, his family, and most of the Protestant aristocracy in a single attack by blowing up the Houses of Parliament during the State Opening. Gunpowder was placed within the parliament but Guy was captured before it was exploded.

Bottom Line
I find it dismaying that so many Americans forget 9-11 so easily. They think it a one time fluke that won't be repeated. As a New Yorker I know that 9-11 was the SECOND terrorist attack on the World Trade center. Eight years earlier a van filled with explosives blew up in the parking garage in the basement of one the towers. I also served as a juror in a case linked to the "Millennium Bomber" whose mission was to leave a suitcase bomb in the crowded LAX (Los Angeles) Airport in 2000.
America has been very fortunate to see so little terrorism in its 232 years. But we can not rely on luck alone. Stay prepared.